Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Mar 9, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	10.8078	1.0000	2.0
2	X	Tennessee	SEC	9.3094	1.0000	1.0
3	X	Memphis	CUSA	9.2011	1.0000	3.0
4	X	UCLA	P10	8.5912	1.0000	5.0
5		Duke	ACC	8.0583	1.0000	4.0
6	X	Kansas	B12	7.9292	1.0000	7.0
7		Texas	B12	7.6494	1.0000	6.0
8	X	Xavier	A10	7.1215	1.0000	9.0
9		Georgetown	BE	6.4095	1.0000	8.0
10		Louisville	BE	6.1397	1.0000	10.0
11		Indiana	B10	6.1324	1.0000	15.0
12	X	Drake	MVC	6.0155	1.0000	13.0
13	X	Butler	Horz	5.9005	1.0000	18.0
14		Washington St.	P10	5.8345	1.0000	17.0
15		Notre Dame	BE	5.4528	1.0000	20.0
16		Stanford	P10	5.1800	1.0000	19.0
17		Connecticut	BE	5.1432	1.0000	14.0
18	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.9925	1.0000	11.0
19		Southern California	P10	4.3168	1.0000	28.0
20		Clemson	ACC	4.1888	1.0000	22.9
21		Vanderbilt	SEC	4.1428	1.0000	12.0
22	X	Gonzaga	WCC	4.0429	1.0000	27.0
23		Oklahoma	B12	3.9986	1.0000	22.1
24		Marquette	BE	3.9352	1.0000	21.0
25		Michigan St.	B10	3.9043	1.0000	16.0
26		Kent St.	MAC	3.8644	0.9999	39.0
27	X	South Alabama	SB	3.3446	0.9996	34.0
28	X	Brigham Young	MWC	3.1358	0.9991	24.0
29		Pittsburgh	BE	2.8878	0.9981	26.0
30		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.8845	0.9980	30.3
31		Baylor	B12	2.7483	0.9970	29.1
32		Miami FL	ACC	2.4462	0.9928	30.6
33		Illinois St.	MVC	2.3170	0.9897	42.0
34		Purdue	B10	2.1200	0.9830	44.0
35	X	Davidson	SC	2.0368	0.9792	46.0
36		Arizona	P10	1.9035	0.9715	25.0
37		Dayton	A10	1.8918	0.9707	32.0
38	X	West Virginia	BE	1.8091	0.9648	36.0
39		Mississippi St.	SEC	1.6841	0.9539	35.0
40		Texas A&M	B12	1.4752	0.9299	38.0
41		Massachusetts	A10	1.2870	0.9010	45.0
42		Arkansas	SEC	1.2802	0.8998	41.0
43		Kentucky	SEC	1.1306	0.8709	40.0
44		St. Mary's	WCC	1.0335	0.8493	47.0
45		Kansas St.	B12	0.9225	0.8219	37.0
46		UAB	CUSA	0.7052	0.7597	51.0
47		Syracuse	BE	0.7044	0.7594	33.0
48		Mississippi	SEC	0.5240	0.6999	43.0
49		Ohio St.	B10	0.4682	0.6802	48.0
50		Western Kentucky	SB	0.1782	0.5707	49.0
51		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.0495	0.4802	59.0
52		Florida St.	ACC	-0.0627	0.4750	54.0
53		New Mexico	MWC	-0.1633	0.4351	57.0
54		Villanova	BE	-0.2609	0.3971	56.0
55		Virginia Tech	ACC	-0.5843	0.2795	63.0
56	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-0.6533	0.2568	67.0
57	X	George Mason	CAA	-0.6750	0.2498	69.0
58		Oregon	P10	-0.6956	0.2433	52.0
59		Texas Tech	B12	-0.7393	0.2299	50.0
60		Maryland	ACC	-0.8069	0.2099	53.0
61		Southern Illinois	MVC	-0.8491	0.1979	60.2
62		Creighton	MVC	-0.8676	0.1928	55.0
63		Temple	A10	-0.9916	0.1607	60.9
64		Cleveland St.	Horz	-1.1420	0.1267	71.0
65		Arizona St.	P10	-1.1421	0.1267	65.0
66		Utah St.	WAC	-1.1929	0.1165	84.0
67		Saint Joseph's	A10	-1.2576	0.1043	61.9
68	X	Cornell	Ivy	-1.3216	0.0932	76.5
69		Oral Roberts	Sum	-1.5666	0.0586	73.0
70	X	Siena	MAAC	-1.7439	0.0406	75.0
71		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-1.7597	0.0392	79.0
72	X	IUPUI	Sum	-1.8550	0.0318	93.0
73		Charlotte	A10	-1.8941	0.0291	74.0
74	X	Belmont	ASun	-1.8966	0.0289	94.5
75		Houston	CUSA	-1.9024	0.0286	64.0
76		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.0085	0.0223	70.0
77	X	Akron	MAC	-2.1851	0.0144	77.8
78		Oklahoma St.	B12	-2.3716	0.0089	68.0
79		Florida	SEC	-2.4447	0.0072	58.0
80		Wright St.	Horz	-2.7580	0.0029	82.0
81		Rhode Island	A10	-2.7598	0.0029	66.0
82		North Carolina St.	ACC	-3.0034	0.0013	76.7
83	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-3.0727	0.0011	103.0
84		California	P10	-3.1151	0.0009	72.0
85		Ohio	MAC	-3.1682	0.0008	80.0
86		Wake Forest	ACC	-3.1916	0.0007	81.0
87		Nebraska	B12	-3.2026	0.0007	83.0
88		Boise St.	WAC	-3.2120	0.0007	100.0
89		Nevada	WAC	-3.9108	0.0000	90.1
90	X	American	Pat	-4.0272	0.0000	106.0
91		Valparaiso	Horz	-4.0442	0.0000	99.0
92		San Diego St.	MWC	-4.0883	0.0000	85.0
93		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-4.3019	0.0000	105.0
94		Richmond	A10	-4.5229	0.0000	108.0
95		Robert Morris	NEC	-4.7449	0.0000	128.0
96	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-4.9306	0.0000	115.0
97	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.9745	0.0000	104.0
98		Cincinnati	BE	-5.0046	0.0000	96.0
99	X	Portland St.	BSky	-5.0914	0.0000	132.0
100	X	Winthrop	BSth	-5.1558	0.0000	114.0
101		Providence	BE	-5.1774	0.0000	86.0
102		Bradley	MVC	-5.2702	0.0000	101.0
103		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-5.2780	0.0000	118.7
104		Miami OH	MAC	-5.3391	0.0000	89.0
105		Wagner	NEC	-5.5174	0.0000	129.0
106		San Diego	WCC	-5.5380	0.0000	98.0
107		Missouri	B12	-5.6921	0.0000	87.0
108		Virginia	ACC	-5.7076	0.0000	90.9
109		Rider	MAAC	-5.7114	0.0000	125.0
110		Seton Hall	BE	-5.7580	0.0000	94.5
111	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.8384	0.0000	123.0
112		Washington	P10	-5.9531	0.0000	88.0
113		Minnesota	B10	-5.9886	0.0000	102.0
114		Marshall	CUSA	-6.1072	0.0000	112.3
115		Old Dominion	CAA	-6.1713	0.0000	122.0
116		Utah	MWC	-6.2541	0.0000	107.0
117		Middle Tennessee	SB	-6.2700	0.0000	119.9
118		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.5890	0.0000	121.0
119		Pacific	BW	-6.5967	0.0000	138.0
120		Alabama	SEC	-6.6432	0.0000	92.0
121		Boston College	ACC	-6.8055	0.0000	97.0
122		St. Louis	A10	-6.8177	0.0000	109.1
123		Duquesne	A10	-6.8572	0.0000	109.9
124		Penn St.	B10	-6.9073	0.0000	118.4
125		Brown	Ivy	-6.9427	0.0000	126.0
126		Niagara	MAAC	-7.1841	0.0000	137.0
127		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.2724	0.0000	139.0
128		NC Asheville	BSth	-7.4746	0.0000	147.0
129		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.5738	0.0000	149.0
130		Tulsa	CUSA	-7.6946	0.0000	130.0
131		North Texas	SB	-7.7049	0.0000	144.0
132	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.7055	0.0000	152.0
133		Marist	MAAC	-7.7066	0.0000	124.0
134		Georgia Southern	SC	-7.7261	0.0000	142.0
135		Northern Arizona	BSky	-7.8306	0.0000	150.0
136		Indiana St.	MVC	-7.9177	0.0000	133.0
137		South Carolina	SEC	-8.0155	0.0000	112.7
138		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-8.1551	0.0000	131.0
139		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-8.1787	0.0000	111.0
140		Illinois	B10	-8.1879	0.0000	116.0
141		Chattanooga	SC	-8.3619	0.0000	136.0
142		Loyola MD	MAAC	-8.6303	0.0000	159.9
143		Missouri St.	MVC	-8.6555	0.0000	117.0
144		Lamar	Slnd	-8.6617	0.0000	155.0
145		Hampton	MEAC	-8.7253	0.0000	156.0
146		NC Greensboro	SC	-8.9080	0.0000	143.0
147	X	Sacred Heart	NEC	-8.9125	0.0000	169.0
148		Georgia	SEC	-8.9846	0.0000	127.0
149		Central Florida	CUSA	-9.1280	0.0000	135.0
150		William & Mary	CAA	-9.1796	0.0000	161.0
151		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.2122	0.0000	145.0
152		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-9.2992	0.0000	170.0
153		Air Force	MWC	-9.3296	0.0000	154.0
154		Appalachian St.	SC	-9.4429	0.0000	165.0
155		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.5630	0.0000	151.0
156		Oakland	Sum	-9.6552	0.0000	173.0
157		Holy Cross	Pat	-9.6760	0.0000	153.0
158		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-9.7483	0.0000	168.0
159		Colgate	Pat	-10.1927	0.0000	177.0
160		DePaul	BE	-10.2620	0.0000	140.7
161		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-10.4128	0.0000	157.0
162		St. John's	BE	-10.4586	0.0000	134.0
163		Auburn	SEC	-10.5063	0.0000	140.3
164		UC Irvine	BW	-10.5640	0.0000	176.0
165		Fordham	A10	-10.5901	0.0000	158.0
166		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-10.7274	0.0000	174.0
167		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-10.7494	0.0000	178.0
168		Hartford	AE	-10.7918	0.0000	185.8
169		Iowa St.	B12	-10.7927	0.0000	148.0
170		Weber St.	BSky	-10.8450	0.0000	192.0
171		Fairfield	MAAC	-10.8727	0.0000	179.0
172		Iowa	B10	-11.0742	0.0000	162.0
173		New Orleans	SB	-11.1522	0.0000	166.0
174		La Salle	A10	-11.3231	0.0000	172.0
175		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.3622	0.0000	181.0
176		Louisiana St.	SEC	-11.7045	0.0000	146.0
177		Quinnipiac	NEC	-11.7474	0.0000	197.0
178		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.7534	0.0000	175.0
179		Lafayette	Pat	-11.8123	0.0000	180.0
180		Delaware	CAA	-11.8236	0.0000	183.2
181		Murray St.	OVC	-11.9079	0.0000	193.0
182		Yale	Ivy	-11.9553	0.0000	184.8
183		George Washington	A10	-11.9697	0.0000	171.0
184		Michigan	B10	-12.1155	0.0000	167.0
185		Bowling Green	MAC	-12.2213	0.0000	190.0
186		Tulane	CUSA	-12.2280	0.0000	163.0
187		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.3176	0.0000	194.0
188		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.4297	0.0000	182.0
189		South Florida	BE	-12.5952	0.0000	159.1
190	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.7836	0.0000	216.0
191		Long Island	NEC	-12.7858	0.0000	199.0
192		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.7986	0.0000	205.3
193		Gardner Webb	ASun	-12.8198	0.0000	207.0
194		Northeastern	CAA	-12.8557	0.0000	188.0
195		Bucknell	Pat	-12.8722	0.0000	200.0
196		Central Michigan	MAC	-12.9106	0.0000	196.0
197		Toledo	MAC	-12.9417	0.0000	189.0
198		Vermont	AE	-12.9930	0.0000	204.0
199		Albany	AE	-13.0316	0.0000	210.0
200		Navy	Pat	-13.2493	0.0000	214.7
201		Colorado	B12	-13.5097	0.0000	164.0
202		College of Charleston	SC	-13.5905	0.0000	198.0
203		East Carolina	CUSA	-13.6212	0.0000	212.0
204		Army	Pat	-13.6736	0.0000	214.3
205		North Dakota St.	Sum	-13.7195	0.0000	211.0
206		Cal Poly	BW	-13.8022	0.0000	201.0
207		Rutgers	BE	-13.8846	0.0000	187.0
208		Wichita St.	MVC	-13.9779	0.0000	184.2
209		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-14.2015	0.0000	218.8
210		James Madison	CAA	-14.2721	0.0000	205.7
211		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-14.3847	0.0000	222.0
212		Wofford	SC	-14.3965	0.0000	203.0
213		Towson	CAA	-14.5909	0.0000	209.0
214		Wyoming	MWC	-14.6043	0.0000	195.0
215		Lehigh	Pat	-14.7055	0.0000	226.5
216		Santa Clara	WCC	-14.7649	0.0000	191.0
217		Elon	SC	-15.0378	0.0000	219.6
218		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-15.0591	0.0000	224.0
219		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.0870	0.0000	229.8
220		Morehead St.	OVC	-15.1739	0.0000	241.9
221		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-15.2934	0.0000	217.6
222		Columbia	Ivy	-15.4456	0.0000	228.0
223		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-15.4497	0.0000	226.9
224		Binghamton	AE	-15.4849	0.0000	239.0
225		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.5120	0.0000	233.7
226		Iona	MAAC	-15.5466	0.0000	233.6
227		Florida Atlantic	SB	-15.7206	0.0000	213.0
228		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-15.7387	0.0000	225.0
229		Montana	BSky	-15.9269	0.0000	243.0
230		Hofstra	CAA	-16.1971	0.0000	236.0
231		Fresno St.	WAC	-16.2023	0.0000	208.0
232		Chicago St.	ind	-16.2738	0.0000	231.0
233		Northwestern	B10	-16.2915	0.0000	202.0
234		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.3240	0.0000	240.7
235		High Point	BSth	-16.3349	0.0000	247.0
236		Boston University	AE	-16.3422	0.0000	245.0
237		Montana St.	BSky	-16.3722	0.0000	238.0
238		Delaware St.	MEAC	-16.4013	0.0000	244.0
239		Drexel	CAA	-16.5152	0.0000	218.0
240		Southern Utah	Sum	-16.7176	0.0000	234.7
241		San Jose St.	WAC	-16.7769	0.0000	237.0
242		McNeese St.	Slnd	-16.9313	0.0000	248.1
243		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-17.1558	0.0000	257.5
244		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-17.2530	0.0000	251.1
245		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.2622	0.0000	252.1
246		Youngstown St.	Horz	-17.2722	0.0000	223.0
247		Pepperdine	WCC	-17.4370	0.0000	221.0
248		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.4396	0.0000	265.0
249		Idaho St.	BSky	-17.4759	0.0000	266.0
250		Florida A&M	MEAC	-17.7953	0.0000	258.5
251		Liberty	BSth	-17.8956	0.0000	260.5
252		Denver	SB	-18.0102	0.0000	259.5
253		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.0771	0.0000	254.1
254		Troy	SB	-18.1723	0.0000	232.0
255		Samford	OVC	-18.1865	0.0000	271.0
256		Florida International	SB	-18.3188	0.0000	228.8
257		Stetson	ASun	-18.3252	0.0000	263.0
258		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.3421	0.0000	290.0
259		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-18.3757	0.0000	257.7
260		Hawaii	WAC	-18.4364	0.0000	253.1
261		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.4470	0.0000	246.0
262		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-18.4558	0.0000	255.3
263		Evansville	MVC	-18.4579	0.0000	240.4
264		Savannah St.	ind	-18.5772	0.0000	272.5
265		Texas Pan American	ind	-18.5904	0.0000	293.0
266		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.9061	0.0000	273.7
267		Northern Colorado	BSky	-18.9313	0.0000	281.0
268		Manhattan	MAAC	-18.9509	0.0000	273.1
269		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.0584	0.0000	288.0
270		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-19.2881	0.0000	284.0
271		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.5483	0.0000	277.0
272		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.5721	0.0000	286.0
273		Western Illinois	Sum	-19.5838	0.0000	267.0
274		Arkansas St.	SB	-19.7236	0.0000	274.7
275		Buffalo	MAC	-20.0036	0.0000	250.1
276		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.0121	0.0000	249.1
277		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.0641	0.0000	282.0
278		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.0985	0.0000	280.0
279		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.1421	0.0000	270.0
280		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-20.3392	0.0000	298.2
281		San Francisco	WCC	-20.3582	0.0000	264.0
282		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.3873	0.0000	295.0
283		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.4579	0.0000	276.0
284		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-20.5559	0.0000	262.0
285		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.6238	0.0000	279.0
286		Detroit	Horz	-20.8737	0.0000	269.0
287		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.0152	0.0000	301.0
288		New Hampshire	AE	-21.0899	0.0000	302.5
289		Monmouth	NEC	-21.1004	0.0000	298.8
290		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-21.1359	0.0000	287.0
291		Harvard	Ivy	-21.1582	0.0000	291.0
292		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-21.2240	0.0000	302.5
293		Southern	SWAC	-21.2945	0.0000	305.2
294		Western Carolina	SC	-21.3595	0.0000	285.0
295		Centenary	Sum	-21.4173	0.0000	289.0
296		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-21.4589	0.0000	306.8
297		UC Riverside	BW	-21.4630	0.0000	283.0
298		Colorado St.	MWC	-21.4961	0.0000	268.0
299		Ball St.	MAC	-21.5109	0.0000	278.0
300		UC Davis	BW	-21.5175	0.0000	296.0
301		Oregon St.	P10	-21.6474	0.0000	256.5
302		Furman	SC	-21.6842	0.0000	300.0
303		Radford	BSth	-21.7046	0.0000	312.5
304		Campbell	ASun	-21.7239	0.0000	310.5
305		Dartmouth	Ivy	-22.0128	0.0000	306.0
306		Idaho	WAC	-22.2125	0.0000	294.0
307		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-22.2985	0.0000	324.0
308		Mercer	ASun	-22.3393	0.0000	321.0
309		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.3775	0.0000	318.9
310		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.4098	0.0000	314.7
311		Princeton	Ivy	-22.5776	0.0000	312.8
312		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-22.6063	0.0000	322.0
313		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.6492	0.0000	317.9
314		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.7093	0.0000	304.0
315		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.8970	0.0000	323.0
316		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-22.9036	0.0000	330.0
317		Longwood	ind	-22.9333	0.0000	327.0
318		Canisius	MAAC	-23.0989	0.0000	308.0
319		Rice	CUSA	-23.1430	0.0000	297.0
320		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-23.1441	0.0000	313.7
321		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.1499	0.0000	309.0
322		Portland	WCC	-23.1696	0.0000	292.0
323		Long Beach St.	BW	-23.3053	0.0000	316.7
324		Grambling	SWAC	-23.4161	0.0000	333.0
325		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.5183	0.0000	336.0
326		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.5914	0.0000	326.0
327		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.6685	0.0000	338.0
328		South Dakota St.	Sum	-23.8756	0.0000	320.0
329		Stony Brook	AE	-23.9006	0.0000	325.0
330		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.0308	0.0000	339.0
331		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.0803	0.0000	329.0
332		Maine	AE	-24.0834	0.0000	331.0
333		Howard	MEAC	-24.1847	0.0000	328.0
334		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.5549	0.0000	315.7
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.6024	0.0000	341.0
336		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.6462	0.0000	335.0
337		Presbyterian	ind	-24.9202	0.0000	332.0
338		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-25.0587	0.0000	311.5
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.5308	0.0000	337.0
340		North Florida	ASun	-25.8746	0.0000	340.0
341		The Citadel	SC	-26.0741	0.0000	334.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com