Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Jan 9, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.6940	1.0000	1.7
2	X	UCLA	P10	8.0210	1.0000	2.5
3		Arizona	P10	7.7473	1.0000	4.0
4	X	Florida	SEC	7.2751	1.0000	10.0
5	X	Texas A&M	B12	6.7096	1.0000	10.3
6		Air Force	MWC	6.4575	1.0000	13.3
7		Wisconsin	B10	6.4375	1.0000	12.5
8	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.1088	1.0000	11.5
9		Clemson	ACC	5.9954	1.0000	13.3
10		Duke	ACC	5.7145	1.0000	5.3
11		Tennessee	SEC	5.5352	1.0000	11.7
12		Pittsburgh	BE	5.3968	1.0000	11.6
13		Kentucky	SEC	5.3916	1.0000	12.0
14	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	5.2384	1.0000	15.7
15		Kansas	B12	5.2378	1.0000	22.9
16	X	Missouri St.	MVC	5.1876	1.0000	16.6
17	X	Butler	Horz	4.7996	1.0000	24.2
18		Oklahoma St.	B12	4.4914	1.0000	16.7
19		Georgia Tech	ACC	4.3566	1.0000	25.0
20	X	Memphis	CUSA	4.2043	1.0000	21.6
21		Maryland	ACC	3.9316	1.0000	16.1
22		Alabama	SEC	3.9207	1.0000	20.5
23		Villanova	BE	3.7246	0.9999	13.7
24	X	Notre Dame	BE	3.7083	0.9999	31.4
25		Oregon	P10	3.6002	0.9998	24.8
26		Indiana	B10	3.4181	0.9997	28.9
27		Purdue	B10	3.3074	0.9995	32.4
28		West Virginia	BE	3.2998	0.9995	27.8
29		Drexel	CAA	3.2903	0.9995	36.6
30	X	Nevada	WAC	3.1837	0.9993	37.3
31	X	Xavier	A10	3.0564	0.9989	37.8
32		Connecticut	BE	3.0393	0.9988	30.0
33		Arkansas	SEC	2.7849	0.9973	25.0
34		Washington St.	P10	2.6729	0.9962	38.9
35		Southern Illinois	MVC	2.1181	0.9829	35.0
36		Georgetown	BE	2.0791	0.9812	37.5
37		Michigan St.	B10	1.7576	0.9606	30.9
38		Boston College	ACC	1.2304	0.8907	41.9
39		Providence	BE	1.2059	0.8861	42.6
40		Syracuse	BE	1.1831	0.8816	37.1
41		Louisiana St.	SEC	1.1037	0.8651	39.6
42		Texas	B12	0.8706	0.8080	47.5
43		Texas Tech	B12	0.7777	0.7816	37.5
44		Southern California	P10	0.6336	0.7368	47.0
45		Wichita St.	MVC	0.6112	0.7295	50.0
46		Virginia Tech	ACC	0.5161	0.6971	49.7
47		Georgia	SEC	0.4938	0.6893	48.9
48		California	P10	0.2868	0.6129	44.9
49		Creighton	MVC	0.1324	0.5527	46.6
50	X	Western Kentucky	SB	0.0691	0.5275	60.0
51	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.0331	0.5132	58.8
52		Florida St.	ACC	0.0145	0.5058	43.7
53		Brigham Young	MWC	-0.0362	0.4855	52.4
54		Illinois	B10	-0.1420	0.4435	41.9
55		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.1929	0.4235	50.3
56	X	Gonzaga	WCC	-0.2438	0.4037	60.2
57		Missouri	B12	-0.5769	0.2820	50.4
58	X	Winthrop	BSth	-0.7385	0.2301	77.8
59		Oklahoma	B12	-0.8315	0.2029	52.3
60		Nebraska	B12	-0.8824	0.1888	60.6
61		DePaul	BE	-0.9000	0.1840	56.5
62		Appalachian St.	SC	-1.0879	0.1383	78.8
63		Marquette	BE	-1.5749	0.0576	49.8
64		Northern Iowa	MVC	-1.6902	0.0455	71.0
65		Michigan	B10	-1.7113	0.0435	58.4
66	X	Davidson	SC	-1.9408	0.0261	82.9
67		Stanford	P10	-1.9630	0.0248	60.6
68		George Washington	A10	-2.1133	0.0173	75.6
69		Washington	P10	-2.1647	0.0152	61.0
70		Fresno St.	WAC	-2.4051	0.0081	83.3
71		Dayton	A10	-2.4069	0.0080	72.2
72		Old Dominion	CAA	-2.4503	0.0071	71.3
73		Indiana St.	MVC	-2.4594	0.0070	70.6
74		Massachusetts	A10	-2.7875	0.0027	86.0
75		Bradley	MVC	-3.3241	0.0004	69.3
76	X	Akron	MAC	-3.3276	0.0004	95.3
77		New Mexico St.	WAC	-3.4253	0.0003	89.9
78	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.6649	0.0001	97.3
79		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.7353	0.0001	80.0
80	X	Marist	MAAC	-3.7809	0.0001	106.8
81		Louisville	BE	-3.8021	0.0001	73.3
82	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-3.8066	0.0001	90.5
83		Boise St.	WAC	-3.8131	0.0001	95.9
84		St. Louis	A10	-3.8621	0.0001	85.4
85		Virginia	ACC	-3.9191	0.0000	81.3
86		Hawaii	WAC	-3.9286	0.0000	88.7
87		Tulsa	CUSA	-3.9406	0.0000	87.3
88		Colorado St.	MWC	-3.9696	0.0000	92.1
89		Ohio	MAC	-4.0264	0.0000	98.9
90		Santa Clara	WCC	-4.0587	0.0000	95.6
91		Hofstra	CAA	-4.2820	0.0000	102.2
92		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-4.4482	0.0000	102.9
93	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-4.4697	0.0000	109.3
94		South Carolina	SEC	-4.5388	0.0000	76.8
95		UAB	CUSA	-4.6534	0.0000	94.2
96		Saint Joseph's	A10	-4.6765	0.0000	90.6
97		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-4.6946	0.0000	101.1
98	X	Belmont	ASun	-4.7186	0.0000	120.9
99	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-4.7403	0.0000	106.6
100		Temple	A10	-4.9325	0.0000	100.0
101		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-5.1650	0.0000	119.7
102		Kansas St.	B12	-5.2666	0.0000	85.4
103		George Mason	CAA	-5.2840	0.0000	107.9
104		Houston	CUSA	-5.3750	0.0000	97.3
105		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-5.6449	0.0000	112.1
106		Iowa	B10	-5.6900	0.0000	96.7
107		Kent St.	MAC	-5.7322	0.0000	120.2
108		New Mexico	MWC	-5.7374	0.0000	102.5
109		Vanderbilt	SEC	-5.8181	0.0000	94.1
110		Baylor	B12	-5.8402	0.0000	88.6
111	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-5.9025	0.0000	131.3
112		Penn St.	B10	-6.1145	0.0000	98.0
113		Utah St.	WAC	-6.1544	0.0000	103.1
114		Bucknell	Pat	-6.1624	0.0000	124.7
115		Albany	AE	-6.3229	0.0000	128.6
116		Fordham	A10	-6.3859	0.0000	120.6
117		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-6.5723	0.0000	114.9
118	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-6.6403	0.0000	130.0
119		Wyoming	MWC	-6.7488	0.0000	116.7
120		Auburn	SEC	-6.7493	0.0000	100.9
121		Mississippi	SEC	-6.9823	0.0000	97.7
122		Vermont	AE	-7.1189	0.0000	138.4
123		Samford	OVC	-7.1251	0.0000	146.4
124		Cincinnati	BE	-7.1254	0.0000	104.0
125		Toledo	MAC	-7.1305	0.0000	135.3
126		College of Charleston	SC	-7.2018	0.0000	129.7
127		Wake Forest	ACC	-7.3615	0.0000	110.4
128		Siena	MAAC	-7.4820	0.0000	141.7
129		Seton Hall	BE	-7.7117	0.0000	103.6
130	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-7.8719	0.0000	135.5
131		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.9484	0.0000	141.3
132		North Carolina St.	ACC	-8.2646	0.0000	110.9
133		Evansville	MVC	-8.4537	0.0000	111.5
134		Miami OH	MAC	-8.4788	0.0000	136.4
135		Middle Tennessee	SB	-8.6113	0.0000	151.3
136		Loyola MD	MAAC	-8.6194	0.0000	163.3
137		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-8.6274	0.0000	158.1
138		Illinois St.	MVC	-8.6585	0.0000	117.0
139		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-8.7163	0.0000	145.7
140		Central Florida	CUSA	-8.7591	0.0000	152.8
141		Sacred Heart	NEC	-8.8354	0.0000	160.3
142		Texas Christian	MWC	-8.8611	0.0000	128.2
143	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-8.9127	0.0000	160.6
144		Northwestern	B10	-8.9158	0.0000	121.2
145		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.9596	0.0000	168.1
146		St. John's	BE	-9.2730	0.0000	118.9
147		Utah Valley St.	ind	-9.4373	0.0000	170.3
148		Austin Peay	OVC	-9.4705	0.0000	171.4
149		Utah	MWC	-9.5676	0.0000	151.7
150		Princeton	Ivy	-9.5878	0.0000	163.6
151		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-9.7017	0.0000	171.1
152		North Texas	SB	-9.7618	0.0000	173.4
153		South Florida	BE	-9.8785	0.0000	133.2
154		South Alabama	SB	-10.0049	0.0000	161.4
155		William & Mary	CAA	-10.0628	0.0000	150.9
156		Marshall	CUSA	-10.0654	0.0000	154.0
157		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-10.2667	0.0000	162.9
158		Hartford	AE	-10.2974	0.0000	172.1
159		Navy	Pat	-10.3097	0.0000	166.0
160		Minnesota	B10	-10.3538	0.0000	136.2
161		Miami FL	ACC	-10.4012	0.0000	148.6
162		Oakland	MCon	-10.5064	0.0000	167.0
163		Charlotte	A10	-10.5219	0.0000	145.8
164		Iowa St.	B12	-10.5262	0.0000	140.6
165		San Diego	WCC	-10.6069	0.0000	172.3
166		North Dakota St.	ind	-10.8533	0.0000	190.5
167		Buffalo	MAC	-10.9439	0.0000	173.2
168		UC Irvine	BW	-11.1043	0.0000	172.2
169		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-11.1073	0.0000	184.4
170		Drake	MVC	-11.1242	0.0000	131.0
171	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-11.1357	0.0000	190.6
172		Rhode Island	A10	-11.1909	0.0000	154.5
173		Rider	MAAC	-11.2218	0.0000	185.2
174		St. Mary's	WCC	-11.2303	0.0000	161.9
175		Towson	CAA	-11.2804	0.0000	157.0
176		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-11.3189	0.0000	172.4
177		Yale	Ivy	-11.4594	0.0000	177.2
178		Army	Pat	-11.4648	0.0000	171.0
179		Troy	SB	-11.5056	0.0000	187.4
180		Youngstown St.	Horz	-11.6312	0.0000	180.8
181		Lipscomb	ASun	-11.8974	0.0000	195.2
182		Eastern Washington	BSky	-11.9001	0.0000	193.0
183		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-11.9780	0.0000	187.3
184		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-12.0015	0.0000	196.2
185	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-12.1271	0.0000	201.0
186		Pacific	BW	-12.1741	0.0000	185.2
187		Columbia	Ivy	-12.2290	0.0000	194.4
188		Furman	SC	-12.2350	0.0000	196.4
189		Southern Utah	MCon	-12.3222	0.0000	195.8
190		Lamar	Slnd	-12.3726	0.0000	204.2
191		American	Pat	-12.3833	0.0000	194.2
192		Tulane	CUSA	-12.5786	0.0000	184.7
193		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-12.6556	0.0000	197.6
194		Morehead St.	OVC	-12.6776	0.0000	213.8
195		NC Greensboro	SC	-12.7006	0.0000	204.4
196		Canisius	MAAC	-12.7849	0.0000	198.0
197		Weber St.	BSky	-12.8155	0.0000	203.8
198		Valparaiso	MCon	-12.8543	0.0000	202.3
199		Florida Atlantic	SB	-12.8575	0.0000	198.5
200		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.1927	0.0000	216.0
201		Manhattan	MAAC	-13.2012	0.0000	214.5
202		Portland St.	BSky	-13.2028	0.0000	204.7
203		Cornell	Ivy	-13.2176	0.0000	209.6
204		Northern Arizona	BSky	-13.2798	0.0000	216.9
205		Rutgers	BE	-13.2909	0.0000	159.5
206		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-13.3437	0.0000	181.6
207		Wright St.	Horz	-13.3968	0.0000	199.0
208		New Orleans	SB	-13.5754	0.0000	211.1
209		Jacksonville	ASun	-13.8183	0.0000	217.0
210		Monmouth	NEC	-13.8322	0.0000	214.5
211		Montana	BSky	-13.8612	0.0000	216.7
212		Harvard	Ivy	-13.8648	0.0000	204.0
213		Detroit	Horz	-13.9600	0.0000	205.1
214		IUPUI	MCon	-14.1715	0.0000	217.3
215		NC Wilmington	CAA	-14.1763	0.0000	199.5
216	X	Boston University	AE	-14.2808	0.0000	216.8
217		High Point	BSth	-14.3723	0.0000	219.6
218		San Francisco	WCC	-14.4162	0.0000	208.6
219		Brown	Ivy	-14.4964	0.0000	227.6
220		Oregon St.	P10	-14.5456	0.0000	161.9
221		Bowling Green	MAC	-14.6061	0.0000	216.4
222		MD Baltimore County	AE	-14.6357	0.0000	221.1
223		Rice	CUSA	-14.6516	0.0000	209.4
224		Murray St.	OVC	-14.6663	0.0000	230.3
225		Arizona St.	P10	-14.7246	0.0000	170.3
226		Hampton	MEAC	-14.7548	0.0000	230.0
227		Niagara	MAAC	-14.8262	0.0000	231.8
228		Duquesne	A10	-14.9233	0.0000	218.6
229		Georgia Southern	SC	-14.9930	0.0000	227.2
230		Ball St.	MAC	-15.1072	0.0000	217.2
231		Texas Southern	SWAC	-15.1601	0.0000	236.5
232		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-15.4310	0.0000	234.3
233		Arkansas St.	SB	-15.5563	0.0000	237.3
234		Dartmouth	Ivy	-15.6385	0.0000	228.0
235		Stony Brook	AE	-15.8731	0.0000	238.8
236		Lehigh	Pat	-15.8797	0.0000	238.0
237		Pepperdine	WCC	-15.8950	0.0000	224.8
238		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-16.0151	0.0000	248.5
239		Central Michigan	MAC	-16.1174	0.0000	237.7
240		Western Carolina	SC	-16.4781	0.0000	235.1
241		Chattanooga	SC	-16.5511	0.0000	232.9
242		Tennessee St.	OVC	-16.6493	0.0000	245.7
243		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-16.6764	0.0000	230.0
244		Binghamton	AE	-16.7222	0.0000	252.8
245		Campbell	ASun	-16.9288	0.0000	250.5
246		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-17.0661	0.0000	260.5
247		Texas Pan American	ind	-17.0922	0.0000	260.2
248		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.1707	0.0000	253.1
249		Florida A&M	MEAC	-17.1804	0.0000	260.3
250		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-17.2160	0.0000	262.6
251		Northeastern	CAA	-17.3638	0.0000	225.2
252		Chicago St.	MCon	-17.4368	0.0000	233.8
253		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-17.4457	0.0000	225.6
254		La Salle	A10	-17.5756	0.0000	236.8
255		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-17.5797	0.0000	257.1
256		Maine	AE	-17.6316	0.0000	253.9
257		Georgia St.	CAA	-17.6650	0.0000	231.5
258		Cleveland St.	Horz	-17.7051	0.0000	253.5
259		Centenary	MCon	-17.7717	0.0000	255.8
260		Stetson	ASun	-17.8356	0.0000	261.1
261		Fairfield	MAAC	-18.0088	0.0000	243.3
262		Cal Poly	BW	-18.1496	0.0000	267.2
263		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.1859	0.0000	274.7
264		Mercer	ASun	-18.4096	0.0000	276.3
265		Northern Illinois	MAC	-18.4910	0.0000	264.3
266		Howard	MEAC	-18.6255	0.0000	286.1
267		Central Connecticut	NEC	-18.6567	0.0000	277.5
268		Colgate	Pat	-18.7997	0.0000	265.5
269		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-18.8255	0.0000	270.9
270		Liberty	BSth	-18.8424	0.0000	271.1
271		Richmond	A10	-18.8808	0.0000	244.3
272		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-19.3213	0.0000	282.7
273		Lafayette	Pat	-19.3390	0.0000	264.9
274		Quinnipiac	NEC	-19.5443	0.0000	290.1
275		Alabama St.	SWAC	-19.5791	0.0000	290.2
276		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.5998	0.0000	267.8
277		Florida International	SB	-19.6219	0.0000	277.0
278		Colorado	B12	-19.6966	0.0000	231.0
279		Wagner	NEC	-19.7969	0.0000	287.4
280		Southern	SWAC	-19.9192	0.0000	291.4
281		Gardner Webb	ASun	-19.9444	0.0000	278.8
282		Longwood	ind	-20.2010	0.0000	280.8
283		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-20.3962	0.0000	286.3
284		San Jose St.	WAC	-20.4375	0.0000	253.8
285		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-20.4607	0.0000	287.5
286		NC Asheville	BSth	-20.4628	0.0000	290.3
287		Sacramento St.	BSky	-20.4672	0.0000	290.6
288		St. Francis NY	NEC	-20.5032	0.0000	291.0
289		Radford	BSth	-20.5574	0.0000	291.4
290		Grambling	SWAC	-20.5891	0.0000	302.1
291		East Carolina	CUSA	-20.6065	0.0000	287.4
292		New Hampshire	AE	-20.6069	0.0000	297.4
293		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-20.6607	0.0000	280.1
294		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-20.7111	0.0000	299.5
295		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.7489	0.0000	298.6
296		Texas St.	Slnd	-20.8543	0.0000	295.0
297		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.8850	0.0000	302.4
298		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-20.9476	0.0000	299.1
299		Portland	WCC	-20.9764	0.0000	279.8
300		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.9961	0.0000	286.9
301		Delaware	CAA	-21.0623	0.0000	280.4
302		UC Davis	ind	-21.2211	0.0000	308.1
303		McNeese St.	Slnd	-21.3121	0.0000	294.7
304		Long Island	NEC	-21.3267	0.0000	307.9
305		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-21.4156	0.0000	299.3
306		Savannah St.	ind	-21.5256	0.0000	299.5
307		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-21.5612	0.0000	299.3
308		The Citadel	SC	-21.5994	0.0000	280.8
309		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-21.6670	0.0000	296.2
310		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.7245	0.0000	309.4
311		St. Peter's	MAAC	-21.8562	0.0000	307.4
312		Charleston Southern	BSth	-21.9359	0.0000	310.5
313		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.9404	0.0000	312.9
314		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.0982	0.0000	314.8
315		Iona	MAAC	-22.5132	0.0000	312.1
316		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.5875	0.0000	316.9
317		Morgan St.	MEAC	-22.5889	0.0000	320.2
318		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.6054	0.0000	327.2
319		Montana St.	BSky	-22.6731	0.0000	316.8
320		James Madison	CAA	-22.6802	0.0000	295.5
321		UC Riverside	BW	-22.7497	0.0000	316.4
322		Western Illinois	MCon	-22.7612	0.0000	321.6
323		South Dakota St.	ind	-22.9444	0.0000	325.3
324		Idaho	WAC	-23.1104	0.0000	284.4
325		Wofford	SC	-23.1872	0.0000	312.8
326		Elon	SC	-23.4043	0.0000	305.7
327		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.4208	0.0000	327.7
328		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.5491	0.0000	324.5
329		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.8262	0.0000	332.8
330		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-23.9007	0.0000	331.6
331		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.9606	0.0000	332.4
332		North Florida	ASun	-24.1292	0.0000	331.5
333		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.1506	0.0000	333.9
334		Denver	SB	-24.4140	0.0000	332.3
335		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-24.4857	0.0000	319.4
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.4868	0.0000	327.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com