Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Feb 9, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Duke	ACC	10.0044	1.0000	2.2
2		North Carolina	ACC	9.2600	1.0000	3.0
3	X	Tennessee	SEC	9.0696	1.0000	2.2
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.8271	1.0000	3.0
5	X	Kansas	B12	8.5090	1.0000	5.2
6	X	UCLA	P10	8.1007	1.0000	5.7
7	X	Drake	MVC	6.4035	1.0000	10.8
8		Georgetown	BE	6.1676	1.0000	11.2
9	X	Xavier	A10	6.1201	1.0000	10.3
10		Michigan St.	B10	5.9192	1.0000	13.9
11		Indiana	B10	5.5166	1.0000	19.5
12		Texas	B12	5.4230	1.0000	10.1
13		Arizona	P10	5.3130	1.0000	11.2
14		Connecticut	BE	5.1599	1.0000	13.1
15		Stanford	P10	5.0444	1.0000	19.0
16	X	Butler	Horz	4.7246	1.0000	24.9
17		Louisville	BE	4.4313	1.0000	14.4
18		Notre Dame	BE	4.2765	1.0000	27.5
19		Clemson	ACC	4.2091	1.0000	23.4
20		Washington St.	P10	4.0418	1.0000	23.9
21		Texas A&M	B12	3.9160	1.0000	22.3
22		St. Mary's	WCC	3.8373	0.9999	29.6
23		Kansas St.	B12	3.7062	0.9999	19.1
24	X	Wisconsin	B10	3.6606	0.9999	17.6
25		Arkansas	SEC	3.5155	0.9998	26.2
26		Marquette	BE	3.2563	0.9994	25.9
27		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.2037	0.9993	18.6
28		Southern California	P10	3.0587	0.9989	32.6
29		Pittsburgh	BE	2.9191	0.9982	25.2
30	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.7631	0.9971	32.5
31		Ohio St.	B10	2.7552	0.9971	30.5
32	X	West Virginia	BE	2.5886	0.9952	32.6
33		Rhode Island	A10	2.5457	0.9945	33.4
34	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.4172	0.9922	36.2
35		Mississippi	SEC	1.9226	0.9727	33.3
36		Baylor	B12	1.7044	0.9558	32.5
37		Brigham Young	MWC	1.6525	0.9508	42.9
38		Florida	SEC	1.6237	0.9478	38.2
39		Purdue	B10	1.6076	0.9460	49.6
40		Massachusetts	A10	1.4446	0.9257	42.3
41		Oklahoma	B12	1.4185	0.9220	38.2
42	X	South Alabama	SB	1.3225	0.9070	46.0
43		Dayton	A10	1.2835	0.9003	34.3
44		Illinois St.	MVC	0.8309	0.7970	51.3
45		Mississippi St.	SEC	0.8280	0.7962	40.2
46	X	Davidson	SC	0.6711	0.7489	57.8
47		Maryland	ACC	0.6688	0.7482	40.8
48		Miami FL	ACC	0.5003	0.6916	42.9
49		Houston	CUSA	0.3977	0.6546	46.3
50	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.3882	0.6511	56.9
51		Syracuse	BE	0.0758	0.5302	36.1
52		George Mason	CAA	0.0198	0.5079	63.2
53		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.1057	0.4579	51.7
54		Kent St.	MAC	-0.1741	0.4309	63.7
55		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.2183	0.4136	58.1
56		Oregon	P10	-0.2789	0.3902	51.4
57		North Carolina St.	ACC	-0.3405	0.3667	59.2
58		UAB	CUSA	-0.3979	0.3454	59.8
59		Oral Roberts	Sum	-0.4091	0.3412	67.1
60		Creighton	MVC	-0.5701	0.2843	54.6
61		Ohio	MAC	-0.6091	0.2712	63.4
62		Kentucky	SEC	-1.1809	0.1188	58.5
63		Southern Illinois	MVC	-1.2104	0.1131	66.1
64	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-1.3107	0.0950	72.9
65		New Mexico	MWC	-1.5603	0.0593	63.6
66		Florida St.	ACC	-1.6585	0.0486	61.0
67		California	P10	-1.7311	0.0417	58.1
68		Texas Tech	B12	-1.8974	0.0289	60.7
69		Wright St.	Horz	-2.0248	0.0214	76.1
70	X	Akron	MAC	-2.1023	0.0178	80.7
71		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.1358	0.0163	82.0
72		Utah St.	WAC	-2.4434	0.0073	88.9
73	X	IUPUI	Sum	-2.4586	0.0070	93.8
74		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.4695	0.0068	74.6
75		Duquesne	A10	-2.6683	0.0038	73.6
76		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.7543	0.0029	72.1
77		Missouri	B12	-2.9384	0.0016	71.1
78		Utah	MWC	-2.9804	0.0014	72.9
79		Charlotte	A10	-3.0100	0.0013	83.3
80	X	Siena	MAAC	-3.1312	0.0009	86.5
81		Miami OH	MAC	-3.2930	0.0005	78.6
82		Boise St.	WAC	-3.3168	0.0005	100.6
83		Arizona St.	P10	-3.3690	0.0004	82.9
84	X	Cornell	Ivy	-3.5940	0.0002	100.9
85		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.6396	0.0001	80.9
86		Cincinnati	BE	-3.6929	0.0001	87.9
87		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.6964	0.0001	100.8
88		Rider	MAAC	-3.7946	0.0001	108.3
89		Nevada	WAC	-3.7948	0.0001	87.7
90		Seton Hall	BE	-3.9694	0.0000	76.2
91		Minnesota	B10	-4.0046	0.0000	81.1
92		NC Asheville	BSth	-4.1502	0.0000	108.8
93		Boston College	ACC	-4.1827	0.0000	78.3
94	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.3203	0.0000	102.1
95		Providence	BE	-4.4014	0.0000	75.1
96		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-4.4630	0.0000	105.0
97		Nebraska	B12	-4.5454	0.0000	97.1
98		Villanova	BE	-4.5840	0.0000	86.3
99		Temple	A10	-4.6812	0.0000	85.4
100		Wake Forest	ACC	-4.7542	0.0000	92.5
101		South Carolina	SEC	-5.0150	0.0000	84.2
102		Valparaiso	Horz	-5.0745	0.0000	109.3
103		Bradley	MVC	-5.0753	0.0000	96.9
104		Pacific	BW	-5.1519	0.0000	121.5
105		Cleveland St.	Horz	-5.1654	0.0000	106.9
106		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-5.2273	0.0000	91.3
107	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.5878	0.0000	121.8
108	X	Winthrop	BSth	-5.6293	0.0000	121.0
109		Georgia Southern	SC	-5.7293	0.0000	112.6
110	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-5.9499	0.0000	132.9
111		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.0787	0.0000	116.9
112		Belmont	ASun	-6.1070	0.0000	137.6
113	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.4032	0.0000	122.7
114		Appalachian St.	SC	-6.4181	0.0000	131.2
115		Hampton	MEAC	-6.4490	0.0000	135.0
116		Richmond	A10	-6.5576	0.0000	124.6
117	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.6344	0.0000	137.4
118		Niagara	MAAC	-6.7361	0.0000	131.3
119		Wagner	NEC	-6.7754	0.0000	143.2
120		Georgia	SEC	-6.8086	0.0000	106.3
121	X	American	Pat	-6.8236	0.0000	138.6
122		Chattanooga	SC	-6.8329	0.0000	118.6
123		Marshall	CUSA	-6.8775	0.0000	116.9
124		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.9683	0.0000	118.2
125		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-7.0335	0.0000	122.6
126	X	Portland St.	BSky	-7.0722	0.0000	149.9
127	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-7.3133	0.0000	138.1
128		Alabama	SEC	-7.3432	0.0000	95.6
129		Illinois	B10	-7.5019	0.0000	106.5
130		Old Dominion	CAA	-7.5477	0.0000	133.4
131		St. John's	BE	-7.5926	0.0000	106.1
132		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-7.6122	0.0000	134.1
133		Washington	P10	-7.7032	0.0000	114.1
134		Marist	MAAC	-7.8183	0.0000	128.4
135		Holy Cross	Pat	-7.9186	0.0000	135.8
136		Lafayette	Pat	-8.0274	0.0000	144.4
137	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.0361	0.0000	154.3
138		Iowa St.	B12	-8.1841	0.0000	119.7
139		NC Greensboro	SC	-8.2403	0.0000	147.9
140		San Diego	WCC	-8.3023	0.0000	128.4
141		St. Louis	A10	-8.3127	0.0000	124.0
142		Brown	Ivy	-8.3946	0.0000	141.7
143		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-8.4293	0.0000	146.1
144		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.7459	0.0000	142.0
145		Tulane	CUSA	-8.7823	0.0000	135.7
146		North Texas	SB	-8.8265	0.0000	157.7
147		Middle Tennessee	SB	-8.8384	0.0000	140.8
148		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.8390	0.0000	161.7
149		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.8647	0.0000	161.4
150		Oklahoma St.	B12	-8.8882	0.0000	119.2
151		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.0055	0.0000	169.4
152		Lamar	Slnd	-9.0424	0.0000	159.2
153		Virginia	ACC	-9.0727	0.0000	113.5
154		Missouri St.	MVC	-9.2396	0.0000	128.3
155		NC Wilmington	CAA	-9.4132	0.0000	157.5
156		DePaul	BE	-9.5391	0.0000	130.1
157		Penn St.	B10	-9.7256	0.0000	136.8
158		William & Mary	CAA	-9.7308	0.0000	163.9
159		Tulsa	CUSA	-9.8106	0.0000	148.1
160		Colorado	B12	-9.9319	0.0000	148.3
161		Oakland	Sum	-10.0046	0.0000	170.3
162		Murray St.	OVC	-10.2445	0.0000	179.2
163		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.4140	0.0000	176.7
164		Iowa	B10	-10.4259	0.0000	150.4
165		Indiana St.	MVC	-10.4365	0.0000	153.3
166		Santa Clara	WCC	-10.8053	0.0000	164.2
167		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-10.8938	0.0000	168.9
168		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-10.9905	0.0000	160.9
169		UC Irvine	BW	-11.0146	0.0000	171.5
170		Wofford	SC	-11.1695	0.0000	178.4
171		Quinnipiac	NEC	-11.2148	0.0000	195.0
172		Yale	Ivy	-11.2281	0.0000	181.0
173		New Orleans	SB	-11.3850	0.0000	175.8
174		Central Connecticut	NEC	-11.4442	0.0000	191.1
175		South Florida	BE	-11.4806	0.0000	149.1
176		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-11.5675	0.0000	189.6
177		Vermont	AE	-11.6288	0.0000	195.9
178		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.7669	0.0000	186.9
179		Delaware	CAA	-11.8332	0.0000	181.7
180		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.9736	0.0000	197.4
181		Central Michigan	MAC	-12.0303	0.0000	191.8
182		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-12.0949	0.0000	202.6
183		Auburn	SEC	-12.1011	0.0000	152.7
184		Wichita St.	MVC	-12.2510	0.0000	164.8
185		Air Force	MWC	-12.3547	0.0000	170.1
186		Fordham	A10	-12.4236	0.0000	167.5
187		Fresno St.	WAC	-12.4989	0.0000	175.0
188		Long Island	NEC	-12.4991	0.0000	194.1
189		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.5038	0.0000	172.1
190		Northeastern	CAA	-12.5043	0.0000	181.8
191		James Madison	CAA	-12.5736	0.0000	190.3
192		Bucknell	Pat	-12.5811	0.0000	199.5
193		Montana St.	BSky	-12.6733	0.0000	199.8
194		Weber St.	BSky	-12.9434	0.0000	206.6
195		College of Charleston	SC	-12.9620	0.0000	188.4
196		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-13.1306	0.0000	206.9
197		Fairfield	MAAC	-13.2910	0.0000	205.2
198		Montana	BSky	-13.3188	0.0000	208.1
199		Albany	AE	-13.3336	0.0000	213.3
200		Michigan	B10	-13.4457	0.0000	170.2
201		Lehigh	Pat	-13.7129	0.0000	215.2
202		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.7768	0.0000	205.3
203		Hartford	AE	-13.7859	0.0000	216.6
204		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.8133	0.0000	204.5
205		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-13.8467	0.0000	213.8
206		Columbia	Ivy	-13.8852	0.0000	215.5
207	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-13.9463	0.0000	234.9
208		Toledo	MAC	-14.1689	0.0000	198.2
209		Colgate	Pat	-14.1702	0.0000	215.2
210		Liberty	BSth	-14.2817	0.0000	219.0
211		Iona	MAAC	-14.3129	0.0000	216.7
212		Delaware St.	MEAC	-14.3688	0.0000	220.9
213		Army	Pat	-14.4325	0.0000	223.2
214		Gardner Webb	ASun	-14.5258	0.0000	227.5
215		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.7210	0.0000	218.8
216		George Washington	A10	-14.7444	0.0000	197.0
217		Denver	SB	-14.7700	0.0000	222.0
218		Hawaii	WAC	-14.8443	0.0000	216.9
219		Rutgers	BE	-14.9757	0.0000	186.8
220		North Dakota St.	Sum	-15.0230	0.0000	217.3
221		Binghamton	AE	-15.1321	0.0000	238.5
222		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.1341	0.0000	228.3
223		Louisiana St.	SEC	-15.1748	0.0000	183.4
224		Morehead St.	OVC	-15.2725	0.0000	235.9
225		High Point	BSth	-15.4471	0.0000	230.8
226		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.4986	0.0000	240.5
227		Wyoming	MWC	-15.5022	0.0000	197.7
228		La Salle	A10	-15.5778	0.0000	206.4
229		Cal Poly	BW	-15.6129	0.0000	221.7
230		Northwestern	B10	-15.7648	0.0000	199.2
231		Chicago St.	ind	-16.0213	0.0000	235.0
232		Towson	CAA	-16.1237	0.0000	233.4
233		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.1420	0.0000	214.6
234		Troy	SB	-16.3582	0.0000	220.8
235		Florida Atlantic	SB	-16.4272	0.0000	227.8
236		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-16.5816	0.0000	237.5
237		Utah Valley St.	ind	-16.7153	0.0000	257.0
238		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-16.8347	0.0000	253.0
239		Drexel	CAA	-16.9146	0.0000	224.3
240		Hofstra	CAA	-16.9875	0.0000	243.2
241		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-17.0572	0.0000	239.1
242		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.1342	0.0000	229.6
243		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.1465	0.0000	256.7
244		Navy	Pat	-17.2480	0.0000	259.8
245		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-17.3656	0.0000	254.2
246		Elon	SC	-17.5311	0.0000	247.6
247		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-17.5368	0.0000	281.5
248		St. Bonaventure	A10	-17.6748	0.0000	227.4
249		Western Illinois	Sum	-17.7490	0.0000	252.9
250		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-17.8845	0.0000	246.6
251		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-17.9587	0.0000	248.2
252		Pepperdine	WCC	-18.0538	0.0000	235.5
253		Buffalo	MAC	-18.0883	0.0000	237.7
254		Arkansas St.	SB	-18.2071	0.0000	261.1
255		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.2326	0.0000	262.7
256		Campbell	ASun	-18.2871	0.0000	271.4
257		Evansville	MVC	-18.3993	0.0000	233.6
258		Stetson	ASun	-18.4331	0.0000	265.0
259		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.5101	0.0000	244.4
260		Southern	SWAC	-18.6685	0.0000	277.9
261		Idaho St.	BSky	-18.7192	0.0000	273.3
262		Samford	OVC	-18.7718	0.0000	281.2
263		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-18.8428	0.0000	280.0
264		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.8536	0.0000	259.3
265		Northern Colorado	BSky	-18.9165	0.0000	279.1
266		Boston University	AE	-18.9220	0.0000	274.5
267		Florida International	SB	-18.9779	0.0000	244.7
268		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-18.9783	0.0000	277.6
269		Harvard	Ivy	-19.1623	0.0000	274.9
270		Tennessee St.	OVC	-19.1841	0.0000	280.7
271		Princeton	Ivy	-19.1938	0.0000	280.3
272		Oregon St.	P10	-19.2077	0.0000	232.9
273		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-19.2082	0.0000	276.6
274		San Francisco	WCC	-19.2889	0.0000	254.2
275		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.4958	0.0000	284.3
276		Centenary	Sum	-19.5046	0.0000	272.9
277		Florida A&M	MEAC	-19.5809	0.0000	283.6
278		Mercer	ASun	-19.6830	0.0000	299.6
279		Savannah St.	ind	-19.7788	0.0000	288.3
280		Colorado St.	MWC	-19.8228	0.0000	236.1
281		Southern Utah	Sum	-19.8456	0.0000	263.5
282		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.8690	0.0000	283.0
283		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-19.8767	0.0000	299.6
284		Jackson St.	SWAC	-20.0017	0.0000	286.8
285		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.0160	0.0000	292.7
286		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-20.0303	0.0000	292.4
287		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-20.1341	0.0000	278.8
288		McNeese St.	Slnd	-20.1880	0.0000	284.1
289		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.3858	0.0000	313.4
290		Detroit	Horz	-20.3964	0.0000	273.6
291		Western Carolina	SC	-20.5870	0.0000	276.8
292		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.6064	0.0000	304.8
293		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.6496	0.0000	283.9
294		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.6634	0.0000	296.1
295		UC Davis	BW	-20.7664	0.0000	287.7
296		Manhattan	MAAC	-20.7911	0.0000	290.3
297		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.9064	0.0000	286.6
298		Portland	WCC	-20.9207	0.0000	274.9
299		New Hampshire	AE	-21.1874	0.0000	303.7
300		Dartmouth	Ivy	-21.3493	0.0000	302.7
301		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.6731	0.0000	280.4
302		Rice	CUSA	-21.7844	0.0000	276.9
303		Ball St.	MAC	-21.7895	0.0000	281.9
304		South Dakota St.	Sum	-21.8467	0.0000	299.0
305		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-21.8762	0.0000	300.4
306		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.8766	0.0000	311.2
307		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-21.8815	0.0000	299.2
308		Radford	BSth	-21.8847	0.0000	310.9
309		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.9745	0.0000	311.0
310		Monmouth	NEC	-22.0380	0.0000	307.5
311		UC Riverside	BW	-22.1077	0.0000	287.3
312		St. Peter's	MAAC	-22.2764	0.0000	299.8
313		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.3222	0.0000	312.9
314		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.3457	0.0000	313.9
315		Grambling	SWAC	-22.7628	0.0000	324.8
316		Long Beach St.	BW	-22.8201	0.0000	307.8
317		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.8250	0.0000	327.6
318		Maine	AE	-22.8998	0.0000	322.2
319		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.1024	0.0000	310.2
320		Longwood	ind	-23.2083	0.0000	333.1
321		Furman	SC	-23.3082	0.0000	312.7
322		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.3563	0.0000	318.8
323		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.5215	0.0000	297.7
324		Canisius	MAAC	-23.6000	0.0000	317.9
325		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.7590	0.0000	329.8
326		Howard	MEAC	-23.7864	0.0000	327.0
327		Coppin St.	MEAC	-23.8538	0.0000	317.7
328		Idaho	WAC	-23.9604	0.0000	315.5
329		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.9707	0.0000	329.1
330		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.0384	0.0000	334.0
331		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-24.0543	0.0000	337.3
332		Charleston Southern	BSth	-24.0613	0.0000	330.3
333		Stony Brook	AE	-24.0868	0.0000	330.1
334		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.2580	0.0000	341.0
335		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.3521	0.0000	338.3
336		Presbyterian	ind	-24.4349	0.0000	326.6
337		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.4949	0.0000	318.6
338		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.6454	0.0000	338.8
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.1814	0.0000	335.9
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.6875	0.0000	329.5
341		North Florida	ASun	-26.0087	0.0000	339.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com