Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Mar 8, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	10.5811	1.0000	1.9
2	X	Tennessee	SEC	9.3232	1.0000	1.1
3	X	UCLA	P10	8.8705	1.0000	5.0
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.5982	1.0000	3.0
5		Duke	ACC	8.4237	1.0000	4.0
6	X	Kansas	B12	8.0516	1.0000	7.0
7		Texas	B12	7.5618	1.0000	6.0
8	X	Xavier	A10	7.0832	1.0000	8.9
9		Indiana	B10	6.9062	1.0000	13.0
10		Georgetown	BE	6.5296	1.0000	8.1
11	X	Butler	Horz	6.1992	1.0000	18.0
12		Louisville	BE	6.0813	1.0000	10.0
13	X	Wisconsin	B10	5.4693	1.0000	11.0
14	X	Drake	MVC	5.3791	1.0000	14.1
15		Notre Dame	BE	5.3789	1.0000	20.3
16		Stanford	P10	5.3755	1.0000	19.1
17		Washington St.	P10	5.2887	1.0000	17.0
18		Michigan St.	B10	5.1238	1.0000	16.0
19		Connecticut	BE	4.6145	1.0000	14.9
20		Vanderbilt	SEC	4.3929	1.0000	12.0
21		Clemson	ACC	4.2001	1.0000	22.8
22		Oklahoma	B12	4.1230	1.0000	22.5
23		Southern California	P10	3.9647	1.0000	28.0
24		Marquette	BE	3.9086	1.0000	20.6
25		Brigham Young	MWC	3.3909	0.9997	23.9
26		Miami FL	ACC	2.9883	0.9986	26.9
27		Baylor	B12	2.9334	0.9983	28.6
28		Kent St.	MAC	2.9296	0.9983	44.0
29	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.8989	0.9981	30.4
30		Pittsburgh	BE	2.8142	0.9976	26.7
31		Illinois St.	MVC	2.8020	0.9975	37.4
32	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.7554	0.9971	29.9
33	X	South Alabama	SB	2.1927	0.9858	40.1
34		Purdue	B10	2.1806	0.9854	45.3
35		Arizona	P10	1.9848	0.9764	25.4
36	X	West Virginia	BE	1.9455	0.9741	35.1
37		St. Mary's	WCC	1.9317	0.9733	41.3
38		Mississippi St.	SEC	1.9127	0.9721	33.6
39		Dayton	A10	1.8208	0.9657	32.2
40	X	Davidson	SC	1.7949	0.9637	47.3
41		Arkansas	SEC	1.6366	0.9491	39.7
42		Massachusetts	A10	1.3367	0.9093	44.3
43		Texas A&M	B12	1.3120	0.9052	38.0
44	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	1.2660	0.8972	49.4
45		Kentucky	SEC	1.0072	0.8431	43.2
46		Kansas St.	B12	0.9265	0.8229	35.9
47		Syracuse	BE	0.7891	0.7850	33.2
48		Mississippi	SEC	0.6549	0.7437	42.6
49		UAB	CUSA	0.6068	0.7280	52.3
50		Ohio St.	B10	0.2461	0.5972	49.2
51		Virginia Tech	ACC	-0.1592	0.4368	61.6
52		Villanova	BE	-0.2600	0.3974	57.0
53		Florida St.	ACC	-0.2917	0.3853	54.1
54		Maryland	ACC	-0.3751	0.3538	48.6
55		New Mexico	MWC	-0.4200	0.3373	57.9
56		Southern Illinois	MVC	-0.4813	0.3152	60.4
57		Creighton	MVC	-0.6437	0.2599	55.5
58		Oregon	P10	-0.6596	0.2548	53.3
59		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.6893	0.2453	58.6
60		Texas Tech	B12	-0.8111	0.2087	51.1
61		George Mason	CAA	-0.9338	0.1752	72.7
62	X	Akron	MAC	-0.9692	0.1662	69.4
63		Arizona St.	P10	-1.0129	0.1555	65.1
64	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-1.0762	0.1409	68.1
65		Temple	A10	-1.1044	0.1347	61.1
66		Cleveland St.	Horz	-1.1448	0.1261	70.7
67		Saint Joseph's	A10	-1.2833	0.0997	62.3
68	X	Cornell	Ivy	-1.3955	0.0814	77.5
69		Oral Roberts	Sum	-1.6453	0.0500	74.1
70		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-1.6489	0.0496	79.4
71		Florida	SEC	-1.6600	0.0485	54.2
72		Utah St.	WAC	-1.6833	0.0462	83.9
73	X	Belmont	ASun	-1.8447	0.0325	93.8
74	X	IUPUI	Sum	-1.8450	0.0325	92.9
75		Houston	CUSA	-1.8851	0.0297	64.1
76		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.0789	0.0188	69.7
77		Charlotte	A10	-2.0871	0.0184	74.6
78		Oklahoma St.	B12	-2.1536	0.0156	67.4
79	X	Siena	MAAC	-2.6725	0.0038	82.0
80		Wright St.	Horz	-2.8854	0.0020	81.6
81	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-3.0419	0.0012	102.8
82		Rhode Island	A10	-3.1064	0.0009	66.2
83		Ohio	MAC	-3.1226	0.0009	81.1
84		North Carolina St.	ACC	-3.1671	0.0008	77.0
85		California	P10	-3.4349	0.0003	72.3
86		Wake Forest	ACC	-3.5584	0.0002	80.8
87		Boise St.	WAC	-3.5940	0.0002	101.6
88		Nebraska	B12	-3.6162	0.0001	90.8
89		Nevada	WAC	-3.7191	0.0001	90.6
90	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-3.8988	0.0000	118.6
91		Valparaiso	Horz	-4.0935	0.0000	99.6
92		Seton Hall	BE	-4.1461	0.0000	77.4
93		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-4.1516	0.0000	104.0
94		American	Pat	-4.2608	0.0000	109.2
95		Cincinnati	BE	-4.3717	0.0000	94.9
96		San Diego St.	MWC	-4.5182	0.0000	85.2
97		Richmond	A10	-4.5369	0.0000	106.1
98	X	Portland St.	BSky	-4.8696	0.0000	128.2
99	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.8785	0.0000	100.9
100		Wagner	NEC	-5.0045	0.0000	124.1
101		Providence	BE	-5.0910	0.0000	87.0
102		Bradley	MVC	-5.1881	0.0000	97.7
103	X	Winthrop	BSth	-5.1961	0.0000	114.3
104		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-5.3594	0.0000	120.0
105		Miami OH	MAC	-5.4426	0.0000	90.3
106		Missouri	B12	-5.5087	0.0000	85.6
107		Minnesota	B10	-5.7488	0.0000	98.8
108		Old Dominion	CAA	-5.8326	0.0000	121.8
109	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.8755	0.0000	126.0
110		Washington	P10	-5.9780	0.0000	88.9
111		Utah	MWC	-6.1073	0.0000	105.0
112	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.2008	0.0000	121.2
113		Marshall	CUSA	-6.3295	0.0000	111.7
114		Middle Tennessee	SB	-6.3610	0.0000	123.1
115		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.3635	0.0000	118.0
116		Rider	MAAC	-6.4546	0.0000	132.9
117		Virginia	ACC	-6.4857	0.0000	96.0
118		Duquesne	A10	-6.5242	0.0000	107.2
119		St. Louis	A10	-6.6341	0.0000	108.3
120		Boston College	ACC	-6.6352	0.0000	95.9
121		Pacific	BW	-6.6448	0.0000	138.8
122		Alabama	SEC	-6.7369	0.0000	91.8
123		NC Wilmington	CAA	-6.7750	0.0000	133.5
124		San Diego	WCC	-6.8225	0.0000	111.1
125		Brown	Ivy	-6.8623	0.0000	124.9
126		Niagara	MAAC	-6.8920	0.0000	132.9
127		North Texas	SB	-6.9342	0.0000	143.0
128		Marist	MAAC	-7.0483	0.0000	117.4
129		Tulsa	CUSA	-7.3487	0.0000	129.8
130		NC Asheville	BSth	-7.4480	0.0000	146.6
131		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-7.5209	0.0000	110.1
132		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.5991	0.0000	149.2
133	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.7606	0.0000	151.2
134		Indiana St.	MVC	-7.7641	0.0000	130.9
135		Illinois	B10	-7.8886	0.0000	115.3
136		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-8.0143	0.0000	129.1
137		Georgia Southern	SC	-8.0529	0.0000	140.6
138		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.1151	0.0000	149.9
139		Loyola MD	MAAC	-8.2134	0.0000	159.7
140		South Carolina	SEC	-8.2206	0.0000	113.0
141		Chattanooga	SC	-8.3989	0.0000	136.5
142		NC Greensboro	SC	-8.4286	0.0000	143.9
143		Missouri St.	MVC	-8.4745	0.0000	114.5
144		Lamar	Slnd	-8.7644	0.0000	155.4
145		Hampton	MEAC	-8.7687	0.0000	157.4
146		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.9476	0.0000	145.0
147		Central Florida	CUSA	-8.9965	0.0000	137.7
148		Georgia	SEC	-9.1772	0.0000	127.0
149		Penn St.	B10	-9.2183	0.0000	137.6
150		Air Force	MWC	-9.3373	0.0000	154.1
151		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.3616	0.0000	173.1
152		Appalachian St.	SC	-9.4062	0.0000	164.5
153		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.5800	0.0000	151.7
154	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-9.8259	0.0000	153.0
155		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-9.8502	0.0000	165.8
156		DePaul	BE	-10.0052	0.0000	140.0
157		Oakland	Sum	-10.0353	0.0000	176.2
158		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-10.0562	0.0000	178.2
159		UC Irvine	BW	-10.2578	0.0000	173.9
160		Colgate	Pat	-10.3136	0.0000	176.7
161		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-10.3448	0.0000	156.1
162		St. John's	BE	-10.3833	0.0000	135.1
163		William & Mary	CAA	-10.4939	0.0000	168.8
164		New Orleans	SB	-10.5078	0.0000	166.7
165		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-10.5690	0.0000	171.9
166		Fairfield	MAAC	-10.5982	0.0000	175.2
167		Fordham	A10	-10.6117	0.0000	158.3
168		Auburn	SEC	-10.6893	0.0000	141.4
169		Weber St.	BSky	-10.7819	0.0000	191.2
170		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-10.8311	0.0000	179.1
171		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-10.9576	0.0000	170.7
172		Hartford	AE	-11.0320	0.0000	187.7
173		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.1200	0.0000	180.9
174		La Salle	A10	-11.2030	0.0000	170.4
175		Iowa St.	B12	-11.4095	0.0000	148.3
176		Tulane	CUSA	-11.5393	0.0000	162.7
177		Iowa	B10	-11.5730	0.0000	161.6
178		Louisiana St.	SEC	-11.6403	0.0000	146.4
179		Lafayette	Pat	-11.6717	0.0000	179.8
180		Quinnipiac	NEC	-11.7159	0.0000	196.6
181		George Washington	A10	-11.7663	0.0000	168.2
182		Murray St.	OVC	-11.7993	0.0000	193.5
183		Michigan	B10	-11.8399	0.0000	162.7
184		Yale	Ivy	-11.9992	0.0000	185.4
185		Bowling Green	MAC	-12.0617	0.0000	188.7
186		Central Michigan	MAC	-12.1371	0.0000	186.0
187		Delaware	CAA	-12.2702	0.0000	182.8
188		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.4042	0.0000	195.2
189	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.4167	0.0000	216.0
190		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.5301	0.0000	182.3
191		Bucknell	Pat	-12.5905	0.0000	198.2
192		Long Island	NEC	-12.8168	0.0000	199.4
193		College of Charleston	SC	-12.8343	0.0000	189.8
194		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.8359	0.0000	205.8
195		Albany	AE	-12.8580	0.0000	211.0
196		Vermont	AE	-12.9051	0.0000	204.1
197		South Florida	BE	-12.9133	0.0000	160.6
198		Gardner Webb	ASun	-12.9619	0.0000	208.7
199		Northeastern	CAA	-13.1125	0.0000	187.2
200		Navy	Pat	-13.2150	0.0000	214.3
201		Colorado	B12	-13.2542	0.0000	161.3
202		East Carolina	CUSA	-13.3525	0.0000	212.7
203		Army	Pat	-13.7697	0.0000	214.1
204		Toledo	MAC	-13.8024	0.0000	199.3
205		Cal Poly	BW	-13.8939	0.0000	200.7
206		Santa Clara	WCC	-14.0474	0.0000	192.5
207		James Madison	CAA	-14.2233	0.0000	205.1
208		North Dakota St.	Sum	-14.2239	0.0000	213.0
209		Wichita St.	MVC	-14.3332	0.0000	184.5
210		Wofford	SC	-14.3949	0.0000	203.0
211		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-14.4494	0.0000	222.9
212		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-14.5040	0.0000	222.2
213		Wyoming	MWC	-14.5140	0.0000	193.8
214		Lehigh	Pat	-14.8336	0.0000	226.2
215		Towson	CAA	-14.8602	0.0000	208.3
216		Tennessee St.	OVC	-14.9946	0.0000	228.6
217		Florida Atlantic	SB	-15.0637	0.0000	210.0
218		Southern Utah	Sum	-15.1730	0.0000	217.6
219		Morehead St.	OVC	-15.2443	0.0000	242.9
220		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-15.3212	0.0000	223.5
221		Rutgers	BE	-15.4272	0.0000	196.0
222		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-15.4548	0.0000	224.7
223		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-15.5036	0.0000	226.6
224		Iona	MAAC	-15.5190	0.0000	233.0
225		Binghamton	AE	-15.5464	0.0000	239.8
226		Columbia	Ivy	-15.6656	0.0000	231.2
227		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.6897	0.0000	236.1
228		Boston University	AE	-15.7420	0.0000	240.6
229		Fresno St.	WAC	-15.7790	0.0000	207.0
230		San Jose St.	WAC	-16.0031	0.0000	236.8
231		Chicago St.	ind	-16.1195	0.0000	229.2
232		Montana	BSky	-16.1317	0.0000	244.1
233		Hofstra	CAA	-16.1332	0.0000	230.7
234		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.2461	0.0000	241.8
235		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-16.3793	0.0000	230.5
236		Elon	SC	-16.3814	0.0000	234.1
237		High Point	BSth	-16.4398	0.0000	247.1
238		Delaware St.	MEAC	-16.4811	0.0000	245.1
239		Montana St.	BSky	-16.6309	0.0000	238.1
240		Pepperdine	WCC	-16.6537	0.0000	221.2
241		Drexel	CAA	-16.6576	0.0000	218.4
242		Northwestern	B10	-16.6724	0.0000	201.3
243		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-16.7743	0.0000	251.1
244		Troy	SB	-16.8426	0.0000	220.0
245		McNeese St.	Slnd	-16.9374	0.0000	248.2
246		Utah Valley St.	ind	-16.9422	0.0000	265.0
247		Youngstown St.	Horz	-17.0829	0.0000	220.9
248		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-17.1575	0.0000	259.2
249		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.2638	0.0000	252.1
250		Idaho St.	BSky	-17.3155	0.0000	267.2
251		Hawaii	WAC	-17.4383	0.0000	253.5
252		Denver	SB	-17.7468	0.0000	257.9
253		Florida A&M	MEAC	-17.8785	0.0000	258.3
254		Liberty	BSth	-17.9962	0.0000	261.8
255		Stetson	ASun	-18.0569	0.0000	263.0
256		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.0575	0.0000	253.8
257		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.1203	0.0000	246.1
258		Samford	OVC	-18.2044	0.0000	271.1
259		Florida International	SB	-18.3040	0.0000	232.9
260		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.3350	0.0000	290.0
261		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-18.4287	0.0000	259.5
262		Texas Pan American	ind	-18.5904	0.0000	293.0
263		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-18.6924	0.0000	255.0
264		Savannah St.	ind	-18.7427	0.0000	272.8
265		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.8915	0.0000	273.5
266		Evansville	MVC	-18.9203	0.0000	239.7
267		Northern Colorado	BSky	-18.9362	0.0000	281.1
268		Western Illinois	Sum	-18.9649	0.0000	260.6
269		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.0584	0.0000	288.0
270		Manhattan	MAAC	-19.1554	0.0000	275.6
271		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-19.3445	0.0000	285.0
272		Arkansas St.	SB	-19.4516	0.0000	273.0
273		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.5467	0.0000	276.9
274		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.5719	0.0000	286.0
275		San Francisco	WCC	-19.7340	0.0000	266.1
276		Buffalo	MAC	-19.7538	0.0000	249.4
277		Northern Illinois	MAC	-19.9606	0.0000	268.3
278		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-19.9921	0.0000	298.1
279		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.0205	0.0000	249.2
280		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.0723	0.0000	282.1
281		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.0803	0.0000	280.0
282		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-20.3650	0.0000	263.3
283		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.4497	0.0000	276.0
284		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.6338	0.0000	297.0
285		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.7632	0.0000	278.9
286		Monmouth	NEC	-20.8364	0.0000	295.3
287		Detroit	Horz	-20.8544	0.0000	269.1
288		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.0144	0.0000	301.0
289		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-21.1360	0.0000	287.0
290		New Hampshire	AE	-21.1377	0.0000	303.1
291		Harvard	Ivy	-21.1662	0.0000	291.1
292		Southern	SWAC	-21.2549	0.0000	304.7
293		Western Carolina	SC	-21.2840	0.0000	284.0
294		Centenary	Sum	-21.3406	0.0000	289.0
295		Ball St.	MAC	-21.3937	0.0000	276.9
296		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-21.4512	0.0000	302.0
297		UC Davis	BW	-21.5218	0.0000	294.5
298		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-21.6765	0.0000	306.2
299		Radford	BSth	-21.7043	0.0000	312.5
300		Furman	SC	-21.7618	0.0000	300.0
301		Campbell	ASun	-21.7714	0.0000	311.1
302		Colorado St.	MWC	-21.8002	0.0000	268.6
303		Idaho	WAC	-21.8205	0.0000	295.4
304		UC Riverside	BW	-21.8967	0.0000	282.8
305		Oregon St.	P10	-21.9602	0.0000	256.7
306		Dartmouth	Ivy	-22.0666	0.0000	306.7
307		Mercer	ASun	-22.2607	0.0000	319.9
308		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-22.4114	0.0000	324.0
309		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.4209	0.0000	314.9
310		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.5201	0.0000	318.9
311		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-22.6125	0.0000	322.1
312		Portland	WCC	-22.6302	0.0000	291.9
313		Princeton	Ivy	-22.6425	0.0000	313.6
314		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.6489	0.0000	317.9
315		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.6783	0.0000	304.3
316		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-22.9001	0.0000	330.0
317		Rice	CUSA	-22.9362	0.0000	298.7
318		Longwood	ind	-22.9697	0.0000	326.0
319		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.9961	0.0000	322.9
320		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.0886	0.0000	308.0
321		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-23.1432	0.0000	313.7
322		Canisius	MAAC	-23.1846	0.0000	309.0
323		Grambling	SWAC	-23.4083	0.0000	332.9
324		Long Beach St.	BW	-23.4190	0.0000	316.7
325		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.5183	0.0000	336.0
326		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.6613	0.0000	338.0
327		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.7049	0.0000	327.5
328		Stony Brook	AE	-23.9047	0.0000	325.1
329		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.0308	0.0000	339.0
330		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.0828	0.0000	329.0
331		Maine	AE	-24.0952	0.0000	331.2
332		Howard	MEAC	-24.0999	0.0000	327.5
333		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.1217	0.0000	315.5
334		South Dakota St.	Sum	-24.2075	0.0000	321.0
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.6024	0.0000	341.0
336		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.6467	0.0000	335.0
337		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.6717	0.0000	310.1
338		Presbyterian	ind	-24.9044	0.0000	331.9
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.9352	0.0000	337.0
340		The Citadel	SC	-26.0741	0.0000	334.0
341		North Florida	ASun	-26.0897	0.0000	340.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com