Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Jan 8, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	10.0830	1.0000	1.1
2	X	Kansas	B12	8.0877	1.0000	6.2
3		Duke	ACC	8.0502	1.0000	4.2
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	7.8112	1.0000	4.0
5	X	UCLA	P10	7.4983	1.0000	9.6
6	X	Tennessee	SEC	7.1772	1.0000	3.5
7	X	West Virginia	BE	6.6809	1.0000	11.8
8	X	Xavier	A10	6.5610	1.0000	9.2
9		Mississippi	SEC	6.0062	1.0000	11.2
10		Marquette	BE	5.7086	1.0000	15.3
11		Texas	B12	5.5299	1.0000	9.9
12		Michigan St.	B10	5.4705	1.0000	13.8
13		Indiana	B10	5.2659	1.0000	18.2
14		Clemson	ACC	5.2109	1.0000	17.2
15		Georgetown	BE	4.8759	1.0000	19.8
16		Texas A&M	B12	4.6947	1.0000	19.0
17		Rhode Island	A10	4.6689	1.0000	21.1
18	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.6537	1.0000	19.5
19		Washington St.	P10	4.5912	1.0000	22.4
20	X	Butler	Horz	4.1930	1.0000	30.7
21		Oklahoma	B12	3.8976	1.0000	20.5
22		Ohio St.	B10	3.7632	0.9999	22.4
23		Pittsburgh	BE	3.3432	0.9996	23.3
24		Arkansas	SEC	3.2518	0.9994	28.2
25	X	Drake	MVC	3.2049	0.9993	29.0
26		Notre Dame	BE	3.1863	0.9993	31.5
27		St. Mary's	WCC	3.1257	0.9991	33.1
28		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.0619	0.9989	22.0
29		Arizona	P10	3.0526	0.9989	19.0
30		Dayton	A10	2.6806	0.9963	28.5
31	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.6712	0.9962	38.3
32		Miami FL	ACC	2.6618	0.9961	29.9
33		Syracuse	BE	2.4867	0.9936	25.0
34		Connecticut	BE	2.1927	0.9858	30.5
35		Duquesne	A10	2.0482	0.9797	38.6
36		New Mexico	MWC	1.8124	0.9650	43.0
37		Florida St.	ACC	1.6855	0.9541	34.4
38	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.5798	0.9429	33.1
39		Stanford	P10	1.5602	0.9406	40.1
40		Florida	SEC	1.2339	0.8914	42.8
41		Oregon	P10	0.9304	0.8239	41.1
42		Baylor	B12	0.8814	0.8109	40.3
43		Illinois St.	MVC	0.8215	0.7943	50.1
44		California	P10	0.6997	0.7580	40.1
45		Southern California	P10	0.4541	0.6751	47.4
46		Louisville	BE	-0.0458	0.4817	48.1
47		Massachusetts	A10	-0.0478	0.4809	49.1
48	X	South Alabama	SB	-0.0590	0.4765	62.5
49		Missouri	B12	-0.2288	0.4095	50.0
50		Minnesota	B10	-0.2833	0.3885	51.0
51		Kent St.	MAC	-0.4418	0.3293	64.2
52		Brigham Young	MWC	-0.4678	0.3200	59.9
53		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.5875	0.2784	50.3
54		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-0.7531	0.2257	65.2
55		Utah	MWC	-0.7986	0.2123	56.9
56		Creighton	MVC	-1.0010	0.1584	61.8
57		UAB	CUSA	-1.0372	0.1498	59.7
58		Valparaiso	Horz	-1.0452	0.1480	64.9
59		Arizona St.	P10	-1.0937	0.1370	58.5
60		Kansas St.	B12	-1.1465	0.1258	54.0
61		Niagara	MAAC	-1.3940	0.0817	76.2
62	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-1.4013	0.0806	75.7
63	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-1.4019	0.0805	70.3
64	X	Miami OH	MAC	-1.6168	0.0530	71.2
65		Villanova	BE	-1.8129	0.0349	64.7
66	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.8813	0.0300	86.5
67		Saint Joseph's	A10	-1.8823	0.0299	58.7
68		George Mason	CAA	-1.9681	0.0245	81.0
69		Nevada	WAC	-2.1845	0.0145	72.5
70		Providence	BE	-2.2974	0.0108	65.9
71	X	Davidson	SC	-2.3634	0.0091	94.0
72		Virginia	ACC	-2.4612	0.0069	69.1
73		Akron	MAC	-2.7332	0.0031	85.1
74		North Texas	SB	-2.8786	0.0020	90.3
75		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-3.0240	0.0012	89.0
76		Houston	CUSA	-3.0537	0.0011	78.7
77		South Florida	BE	-3.0686	0.0011	82.8
78		Southern Illinois	MVC	-3.0831	0.0010	79.2
79	X	IUPUI	Sum	-3.1367	0.0009	104.7
80		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.1524	0.0008	69.5
81		Western Kentucky	SB	-3.1555	0.0008	91.5
82	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-3.1999	0.0007	96.3
83	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-3.3475	0.0004	95.6
84		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.3981	0.0003	80.6
85		Nebraska	B12	-3.4130	0.0003	86.7
86		Ohio	MAC	-3.4223	0.0003	83.6
87		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-3.5023	0.0002	78.5
88		Wake Forest	ACC	-3.5994	0.0002	90.8
89		North Carolina St.	ACC	-3.6329	0.0001	80.1
90	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-3.6776	0.0001	105.8
91		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.6984	0.0001	76.6
92		Maryland	ACC	-3.7445	0.0001	71.0
93	X	Siena	MAAC	-3.7992	0.0001	101.2
94		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.8378	0.0001	94.9
95		Texas Tech	B12	-3.9676	0.0000	75.9
96		Oral Roberts	Sum	-4.1229	0.0000	109.9
97		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-4.1705	0.0000	99.2
98		Boise St.	WAC	-4.2504	0.0000	108.7
99		Cleveland St.	Horz	-4.2618	0.0000	95.1
100		Boston College	ACC	-4.5142	0.0000	77.8
101		Alabama	SEC	-4.6366	0.0000	79.8
102	X	Hampton	MEAC	-4.8480	0.0000	111.6
103		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.0445	0.0000	98.2
104		South Carolina	SEC	-5.0724	0.0000	90.3
105		Penn St.	B10	-5.1822	0.0000	101.3
106		Illinois	B10	-5.2865	0.0000	97.1
107		Chattanooga	SC	-5.4127	0.0000	113.4
108		Wright St.	Horz	-5.4800	0.0000	113.8
109		Washington	P10	-5.5540	0.0000	90.7
110		Temple	A10	-5.5918	0.0000	99.1
111		Georgia Southern	SC	-5.6308	0.0000	116.6
112		Oklahoma St.	B12	-5.7538	0.0000	94.8
113	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.9250	0.0000	113.0
114		Purdue	B10	-5.9903	0.0000	114.3
115		Pacific	BW	-6.5634	0.0000	129.8
116		James Madison	CAA	-6.5977	0.0000	134.7
117		Kentucky	SEC	-6.6295	0.0000	105.6
118		Tulsa	CUSA	-6.6312	0.0000	119.5
119		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-6.6601	0.0000	116.0
120	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.6898	0.0000	139.4
121		Tulane	CUSA	-6.6960	0.0000	118.6
122		NC Greensboro	SC	-6.7335	0.0000	133.2
123		Marist	MAAC	-6.8822	0.0000	122.9
124		Charlotte	A10	-6.9029	0.0000	121.4
125		Seton Hall	BE	-6.9345	0.0000	98.8
126	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-7.0415	0.0000	142.7
127	X	Brown	Ivy	-7.3518	0.0000	134.7
128		NC Asheville	BSth	-7.4202	0.0000	141.1
129		Old Dominion	CAA	-7.4516	0.0000	129.5
130		Wichita St.	MVC	-7.4640	0.0000	116.0
131		Missouri St.	MVC	-7.7364	0.0000	115.4
132		Marshall	CUSA	-7.7788	0.0000	128.7
133		Utah St.	WAC	-7.8120	0.0000	139.1
134	X	Montana St.	BSky	-7.8345	0.0000	143.7
135		St. John's	BE	-7.9584	0.0000	106.6
136		Northern Iowa	MVC	-8.0654	0.0000	133.6
137	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.4800	0.0000	150.3
138		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.6587	0.0000	137.7
139		Portland St.	BSky	-8.6603	0.0000	163.3
140		Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.6966	0.0000	157.7
141		St. Louis	A10	-8.7779	0.0000	127.1
142		Appalachian St.	SC	-8.7781	0.0000	161.2
143		Fresno St.	WAC	-8.7989	0.0000	137.1
144		Cornell	Ivy	-8.7997	0.0000	160.1
145		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.8635	0.0000	162.6
146		DePaul	BE	-8.9731	0.0000	130.3
147		Georgia	SEC	-8.9883	0.0000	133.2
148		Oakland	Sum	-9.0569	0.0000	164.3
149		American	Pat	-9.0926	0.0000	157.5
150		Lafayette	Pat	-9.1737	0.0000	156.2
151		Troy	SB	-9.2564	0.0000	153.7
152		Long Island	NEC	-9.2814	0.0000	159.6
153		Wagner	NEC	-9.2872	0.0000	166.3
154		Belmont	ASun	-9.3059	0.0000	173.3
155		Central Michigan	MAC	-9.4936	0.0000	157.5
156		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.5302	0.0000	141.5
157		Rider	MAAC	-9.6106	0.0000	161.7
158		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-9.6764	0.0000	159.1
159		Cincinnati	BE	-10.2117	0.0000	141.7
160		Louisiana St.	SEC	-10.2669	0.0000	138.0
161		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-10.3079	0.0000	180.9
162		Auburn	SEC	-10.4286	0.0000	141.6
163		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-10.4617	0.0000	152.0
164		Richmond	A10	-10.4720	0.0000	155.4
165		College of Charleston	SC	-10.7760	0.0000	169.2
166		UC Irvine	BW	-10.8012	0.0000	160.0
167		Iowa St.	B12	-10.8522	0.0000	137.5
168		Yale	Ivy	-10.8953	0.0000	175.9
169		Santa Clara	WCC	-11.0197	0.0000	163.2
170		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-11.0649	0.0000	159.2
171		Delaware	CAA	-11.2178	0.0000	179.1
172		San Diego	WCC	-11.3355	0.0000	153.2
173		Sacred Heart	NEC	-11.5288	0.0000	195.7
174		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.5301	0.0000	184.9
175		North Dakota St.	Sum	-11.5940	0.0000	183.1
176		Western Michigan	MAC	-11.6631	0.0000	186.3
177		Bradley	MVC	-11.8159	0.0000	155.5
178		New Orleans	SB	-12.0817	0.0000	187.4
179		William & Mary	CAA	-12.1886	0.0000	190.5
180		Fordham	A10	-12.3703	0.0000	167.9
181		Albany	AE	-12.5144	0.0000	205.7
182		Fairfield	MAAC	-12.5792	0.0000	194.8
183		Montana	BSky	-12.6025	0.0000	199.9
184		Michigan	B10	-12.6680	0.0000	165.5
185		Northeastern	CAA	-12.6895	0.0000	187.9
186		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-12.7518	0.0000	187.7
187		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.8176	0.0000	198.5
188		NC Wilmington	CAA	-12.9114	0.0000	191.1
189		Middle Tennessee	SB	-13.0129	0.0000	191.8
190		Gardner Webb	ASun	-13.0134	0.0000	210.2
191		Drexel	CAA	-13.0173	0.0000	187.6
192		Wofford	SC	-13.0363	0.0000	196.1
193		Colorado	B12	-13.1105	0.0000	166.4
194		Bucknell	Pat	-13.1309	0.0000	199.6
195		Colgate	Pat	-13.2414	0.0000	200.2
196		Toledo	MAC	-13.3557	0.0000	193.2
197		Denver	SB	-13.3633	0.0000	209.4
198		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-13.4826	0.0000	207.8
199		East Carolina	CUSA	-13.4914	0.0000	199.9
200		Murray St.	OVC	-13.6411	0.0000	217.7
201		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.6811	0.0000	190.9
202		Colorado St.	MWC	-14.0581	0.0000	175.0
203		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-14.0962	0.0000	196.4
204		Jacksonville	ASun	-14.1137	0.0000	221.5
205		Lipscomb	ASun	-14.1276	0.0000	228.0
206		Buffalo	MAC	-14.2757	0.0000	199.6
207		Iowa	B10	-14.3669	0.0000	193.1
208		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-14.4573	0.0000	233.8
209		San Jose St.	WAC	-14.4872	0.0000	214.6
210		Northwestern	B10	-14.5910	0.0000	188.6
211		Texas Christian	MWC	-14.5976	0.0000	190.4
212		Liberty	BSth	-14.6983	0.0000	225.4
213		Wyoming	MWC	-14.7879	0.0000	187.3
214		Tennessee St.	OVC	-14.8869	0.0000	234.0
215		Columbia	Ivy	-15.1369	0.0000	234.2
216		George Washington	A10	-15.1984	0.0000	202.1
217		Lehigh	Pat	-15.2790	0.0000	229.9
218		Harvard	Ivy	-15.2810	0.0000	230.8
219		Bowling Green	MAC	-15.4446	0.0000	215.5
220		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.4517	0.0000	240.7
221		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.4672	0.0000	205.7
222		La Salle	A10	-15.4909	0.0000	210.4
223		Hawaii	WAC	-15.4932	0.0000	223.8
224		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.5524	0.0000	234.6
225		Vermont	AE	-15.5951	0.0000	235.9
226	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-15.6278	0.0000	254.2
227		Rutgers	BE	-15.6343	0.0000	185.4
228		Iona	MAAC	-15.6725	0.0000	225.4
229		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-15.8646	0.0000	241.4
230		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.0508	0.0000	237.7
231		Central Connecticut	NEC	-16.0680	0.0000	243.5
232		Hartford	AE	-16.1617	0.0000	230.4
233		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-16.1771	0.0000	247.3
234		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-16.2055	0.0000	241.7
235		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-16.2308	0.0000	247.8
236		Lamar	Slnd	-16.2550	0.0000	240.9
237		High Point	BSth	-16.2629	0.0000	240.0
238		St. Bonaventure	A10	-16.4072	0.0000	214.2
239		Loyola MD	MAAC	-16.4429	0.0000	236.2
240		Arkansas St.	SB	-16.4854	0.0000	241.1
241		Towson	CAA	-16.5123	0.0000	244.6
242		Weber St.	BSky	-16.5289	0.0000	242.7
243		Utah Valley St.	ind	-16.5702	0.0000	259.6
244		Elon	SC	-16.6230	0.0000	240.8
245		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-16.6788	0.0000	267.1
246		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-16.6945	0.0000	251.1
247		Manhattan	MAAC	-16.8664	0.0000	248.3
248		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-16.8835	0.0000	242.2
249		Oregon St.	P10	-16.9143	0.0000	203.5
250		Chicago St.	ind	-16.9220	0.0000	236.7
251		New Hampshire	AE	-17.0473	0.0000	257.3
252		Air Force	MWC	-17.1051	0.0000	217.9
253		Navy	Pat	-17.2089	0.0000	256.0
254		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-17.2711	0.0000	247.4
255		Cal Poly	BW	-17.2960	0.0000	236.0
256		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.3323	0.0000	265.6
257		Detroit	Horz	-17.4288	0.0000	239.4
258		UC Davis	BW	-17.6536	0.0000	252.8
259		Army	Pat	-17.7692	0.0000	255.3
260		Binghamton	AE	-17.7766	0.0000	269.3
261		Samford	OVC	-17.8012	0.0000	270.3
262		Hofstra	CAA	-17.9811	0.0000	252.4
263		Evansville	MVC	-17.9917	0.0000	224.8
264		St. Peter's	MAAC	-18.1487	0.0000	255.3
265		Eastern Washington	BSky	-18.2248	0.0000	263.0
266		Southern Utah	Sum	-18.2637	0.0000	256.6
267		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.3242	0.0000	246.8
268		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.3628	0.0000	265.6
269		Boston University	AE	-18.4116	0.0000	262.8
270		Mercer	ASun	-18.5863	0.0000	286.4
271		South Dakota St.	Sum	-18.6336	0.0000	270.2
272		San Francisco	WCC	-18.6455	0.0000	247.7
273		Northern Colorado	BSky	-18.6866	0.0000	274.3
274		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-18.7135	0.0000	286.8
275		Centenary	Sum	-18.7550	0.0000	267.0
276		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-19.2923	0.0000	274.7
277		Portland	WCC	-19.3220	0.0000	259.2
278		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.5132	0.0000	270.3
279		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.5979	0.0000	284.0
280		Rice	CUSA	-19.7385	0.0000	259.3
281		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-19.8974	0.0000	292.0
282		Princeton	Ivy	-19.9611	0.0000	290.5
283		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.0246	0.0000	277.3
284		Southern	SWAC	-20.1502	0.0000	293.5
285		Monmouth	NEC	-20.1604	0.0000	290.1
286		Morehead St.	OVC	-20.1973	0.0000	291.4
287		Campbell	ASun	-20.2061	0.0000	298.6
288		Stetson	ASun	-20.2754	0.0000	287.3
289		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.3005	0.0000	285.5
290		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-20.3618	0.0000	306.1
291		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.3732	0.0000	305.4
292		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.5456	0.0000	302.4
293		Florida International	SB	-20.6268	0.0000	272.4
294		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-20.7789	0.0000	296.9
295		Texas Southern	SWAC	-20.8921	0.0000	301.4
296		Florida Atlantic	SB	-20.9203	0.0000	276.0
297		Western Illinois	Sum	-21.1306	0.0000	290.0
298		Texas St.	Slnd	-21.1483	0.0000	292.6
299		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-21.1579	0.0000	275.7
300		Long Beach St.	BW	-21.1720	0.0000	286.5
301		Ball St.	MAC	-21.1921	0.0000	280.7
302		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.2511	0.0000	300.5
303		Savannah St.	ind	-21.3956	0.0000	305.9
304		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-21.4112	0.0000	286.2
305		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-21.4320	0.0000	296.4
306		Western Carolina	SC	-21.5382	0.0000	294.7
307		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-21.5600	0.0000	298.0
308		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.6801	0.0000	304.0
309		Dartmouth	Ivy	-21.6930	0.0000	311.3
310		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-21.7513	0.0000	310.9
311		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.8370	0.0000	321.3
312		Stony Brook	AE	-22.0454	0.0000	315.0
313		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.1924	0.0000	319.2
314		Radford	BSth	-22.2241	0.0000	313.3
315		Idaho St.	BSky	-22.3340	0.0000	309.9
316		Idaho	WAC	-22.4770	0.0000	301.4
317		Northern Illinois	MAC	-22.6230	0.0000	297.4
318		Furman	SC	-22.7342	0.0000	310.2
319		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.8761	0.0000	317.0
320		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-23.0153	0.0000	310.2
321		Longwood	ind	-23.0229	0.0000	330.1
322		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.2701	0.0000	314.8
323		UC Riverside	BW	-23.2886	0.0000	295.6
324		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.3814	0.0000	334.5
325		Canisius	MAAC	-23.4060	0.0000	315.1
326		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.5090	0.0000	312.0
327		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.6427	0.0000	335.1
328		Presbyterian	ind	-23.6737	0.0000	323.7
329		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.7512	0.0000	320.6
330		Maine	AE	-23.7573	0.0000	324.1
331		Howard	MEAC	-24.0567	0.0000	324.2
332		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.0813	0.0000	340.3
333		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.1781	0.0000	332.1
334		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.2415	0.0000	327.2
335		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.3080	0.0000	335.6
336		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.4102	0.0000	338.0
337		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.4992	0.0000	336.5
338		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.5632	0.0000	307.1
339		The Citadel	SC	-24.9506	0.0000	325.4
340		Grambling	SWAC	-25.1946	0.0000	340.0
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.2190	0.0000	337.1

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com