Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Dec 8, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.5459	1.0000	1.5
2		Duke	ACC	8.7984	1.0000	2.3
3	X	West Virginia	BE	7.9904	1.0000	6.7
4	X	Kansas	B12	7.3780	1.0000	6.8
5	X	UCLA	P10	6.6952	1.0000	9.2
6	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.5208	1.0000	10.6
7	X	Xavier	A10	6.4497	1.0000	8.7
8		Texas	B12	6.3259	1.0000	6.5
9		Tennessee	SEC	5.9895	1.0000	8.1
10		Marquette	BE	5.2152	1.0000	15.9
11		Pittsburgh	BE	5.1810	1.0000	15.2
12		Michigan St.	B10	5.0455	1.0000	15.1
13		Indiana	B10	4.7286	1.0000	21.3
14		Arizona	P10	4.6044	1.0000	13.2
15		Texas A&M	B12	4.3410	1.0000	21.1
16		Georgetown	BE	4.1083	1.0000	23.7
17	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.9834	1.0000	25.7
18		Clemson	ACC	3.8816	0.9999	22.4
19		Washington St.	P10	3.8459	0.9999	23.6
20	X	Butler	Horz	3.7398	0.9999	32.5
21	X	Wisconsin	B10	3.6122	0.9998	27.5
22		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.5919	0.9998	20.9
23	X	Florida	SEC	3.4414	0.9997	29.9
24		Rhode Island	A10	3.2771	0.9995	26.1
25		Mississippi	SEC	3.2185	0.9994	27.9
26		Oregon	P10	3.1962	0.9993	24.3
27		Stanford	P10	2.9934	0.9986	27.6
28		Southern California	P10	2.6381	0.9958	35.5
29		Florida St.	ACC	2.5870	0.9952	29.8
30		Louisville	BE	2.3625	0.9909	31.5
31		Dayton	A10	2.2689	0.9884	31.1
32		Notre Dame	BE	2.2511	0.9878	36.7
33		Arkansas	SEC	2.1425	0.9839	29.1
34		Miami FL	ACC	1.8677	0.9691	31.2
35		California	P10	1.8619	0.9687	35.1
36		Brigham Young	MWC	1.7787	0.9624	41.6
37	X	Creighton	MVC	1.3904	0.9178	44.4
38	X	Holy Cross	Pat	1.3578	0.9127	41.2
39		St. Mary's	WCC	1.0598	0.8554	51.3
40		Providence	BE	1.0217	0.8465	40.2
41		Baylor	B12	0.8215	0.7943	41.0
42	X	Miami OH	MAC	0.4917	0.6885	50.9
43		Illinois	B10	0.2919	0.6148	46.1
44		Kentucky	SEC	0.2847	0.6120	47.4
45		Oklahoma	B12	0.2501	0.5987	47.7
46		Massachusetts	A10	0.2119	0.5839	50.5
47	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.1295	0.5515	43.5
48		Missouri	B12	0.0173	0.5069	50.5
49		Ohio St.	B10	-0.0903	0.4640	52.0
50		Boston College	ACC	-0.1730	0.4313	42.7
51		Connecticut	BE	-0.2088	0.4173	46.8
52		Virginia	ACC	-0.2770	0.3909	49.1
53		Villanova	BE	-0.3914	0.3478	55.3
54		Syracuse	BE	-0.5655	0.2859	45.6
55		Oklahoma St.	B12	-0.9275	0.1768	51.2
56		George Mason	CAA	-0.9545	0.1699	69.1
57	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.0968	0.1364	71.9
58		New Mexico	MWC	-1.1009	0.1355	62.6
59		Western Kentucky	SB	-1.3406	0.0900	76.7
60		Drake	MVC	-1.3464	0.0891	69.0
61	X	South Alabama	SB	-1.3599	0.0869	70.9
62		Maryland	ACC	-1.5069	0.0659	53.7
63		Minnesota	B10	-1.5618	0.0592	62.7
64		Houston	CUSA	-1.6025	0.0545	68.2
65		Duquesne	A10	-1.6624	0.0482	71.9
66	X	Davidson	SC	-1.7431	0.0407	88.3
67		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.7743	0.0380	60.6
68	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-1.8058	0.0355	78.7
69		Kent St.	MAC	-2.0170	0.0219	77.5
70		Valparaiso	Horz	-2.1308	0.0166	75.7
71		Mississippi St.	SEC	-2.1317	0.0165	61.9
72		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-2.2777	0.0114	72.6
73	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.2791	0.0113	83.7
74		Southern Illinois	MVC	-2.3801	0.0087	71.0
75		Temple	A10	-2.4246	0.0077	76.0
76		Texas Tech	B12	-2.4332	0.0075	64.7
77		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-2.6886	0.0036	86.6
78		Arizona St.	P10	-2.8495	0.0022	73.1
79	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-2.9594	0.0015	90.2
80		South Carolina	SEC	-3.1041	0.0010	73.0
81		UAB	CUSA	-3.1986	0.0007	82.2
82		North Texas	SB	-3.3849	0.0004	96.1
83		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.4098	0.0003	79.5
84	X	Siena	MAAC	-3.6114	0.0002	100.3
85		Alabama	SEC	-3.6471	0.0001	74.3
86		Ohio	MAC	-3.6478	0.0001	86.1
87		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.6952	0.0001	80.8
88		Missouri St.	MVC	-3.7144	0.0001	86.1
89		Louisiana St.	SEC	-3.9871	0.0000	81.1
90		Kansas St.	B12	-4.0378	0.0000	78.6
91		North Carolina St.	ACC	-4.0386	0.0000	89.4
92		Santa Clara	WCC	-4.1070	0.0000	96.1
93		Saint Joseph's	A10	-4.1457	0.0000	81.8
94		Bradley	MVC	-4.2400	0.0000	89.8
95		Old Dominion	CAA	-4.2680	0.0000	93.5
96		Nevada	WAC	-4.3652	0.0000	103.5
97		Charlotte	A10	-4.4221	0.0000	96.1
98		Utah	MWC	-4.5033	0.0000	88.2
99		Georgia Southern	SC	-4.8827	0.0000	110.5
100	X	Oral Roberts	Sum	-5.2712	0.0000	120.2
101		James Madison	CAA	-5.3544	0.0000	113.7
102		Akron	MAC	-5.3770	0.0000	111.9
103	X	Hampton	MEAC	-5.4414	0.0000	117.3
104		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-5.4508	0.0000	117.4
105		IUPUI	Sum	-5.5972	0.0000	130.4
106		Seton Hall	BE	-5.6238	0.0000	92.9
107		Northern Iowa	MVC	-5.6592	0.0000	111.9
108		Illinois St.	MVC	-5.6708	0.0000	104.6
109		Purdue	B10	-5.6992	0.0000	102.2
110		South Florida	BE	-5.7190	0.0000	104.1
111		Pacific	BW	-5.7959	0.0000	122.2
112		Georgia	SEC	-5.8035	0.0000	93.1
113		Nebraska	B12	-5.8503	0.0000	105.1
114		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-5.9795	0.0000	107.7
115		DePaul	BE	-6.3864	0.0000	101.6
116		George Washington	A10	-6.4338	0.0000	118.2
117		Washington	P10	-6.4423	0.0000	101.1
118	X	Portland St.	BSky	-6.4663	0.0000	134.1
119		Belmont	ASun	-6.5264	0.0000	142.3
120		St. John's	BE	-6.6449	0.0000	97.8
121		Auburn	SEC	-7.1746	0.0000	111.2
122	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-7.2360	0.0000	130.0
123		Cleveland St.	Horz	-7.3155	0.0000	129.0
124		Wright St.	Horz	-7.4417	0.0000	134.4
125		Marist	MAAC	-7.4616	0.0000	131.4
126		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.4746	0.0000	132.3
127		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.4948	0.0000	142.6
128	X	Brown	Ivy	-7.5070	0.0000	135.3
129		Wichita St.	MVC	-7.5563	0.0000	116.1
130		MD Baltimore County	AE	-7.6156	0.0000	143.6
131		Northeastern	CAA	-7.8446	0.0000	128.1
132		St. Louis	A10	-8.0022	0.0000	117.4
133		Central Florida	CUSA	-8.0350	0.0000	135.4
134		Boise St.	WAC	-8.0677	0.0000	149.5
135		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.1683	0.0000	139.5
136	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.2763	0.0000	151.1
137		Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.5319	0.0000	156.1
138		Montana	BSky	-8.6685	0.0000	156.3
139		Wake Forest	ACC	-8.6878	0.0000	128.7
140		Michigan	B10	-8.7452	0.0000	122.5
141		Yale	Ivy	-8.7674	0.0000	150.1
142		Marshall	CUSA	-8.7931	0.0000	142.8
143	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-8.7969	0.0000	165.5
144		College of Charleston	SC	-8.9292	0.0000	153.6
145		San Diego	WCC	-9.0613	0.0000	130.1
146		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.0727	0.0000	140.5
147	X	Albany	AE	-9.1257	0.0000	169.1
148		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-9.1435	0.0000	150.9
149		Niagara	MAAC	-9.2244	0.0000	163.0
150		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-9.2493	0.0000	158.1
151		Cal Poly	BW	-9.2734	0.0000	152.2
152		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-9.5239	0.0000	157.5
153		Western Michigan	MAC	-9.6747	0.0000	160.9
154		Manhattan	MAAC	-9.7021	0.0000	175.2
155		Drexel	CAA	-9.8892	0.0000	154.0
156		Toledo	MAC	-9.8926	0.0000	155.5
157		Wagner	NEC	-10.0278	0.0000	177.5
158		Northern Arizona	BSky	-10.0537	0.0000	175.8
159		Colorado	B12	-10.1050	0.0000	136.9
160		Chattanooga	SC	-10.1730	0.0000	164.4
161		Air Force	MWC	-10.2332	0.0000	153.4
162		Utah St.	WAC	-10.2432	0.0000	173.6
163		North Dakota St.	Sum	-10.2697	0.0000	177.3
164		New Orleans	SB	-10.2915	0.0000	171.7
165		Hofstra	CAA	-10.3723	0.0000	164.3
166		Colorado St.	MWC	-10.5196	0.0000	143.9
167		Fresno St.	WAC	-10.6171	0.0000	166.9
168		Bucknell	Pat	-10.6821	0.0000	172.9
169		Penn St.	B10	-10.7297	0.0000	150.2
170		Tulane	CUSA	-10.8275	0.0000	166.5
171		NC Asheville	BSth	-10.9082	0.0000	178.1
172		Oakland	Sum	-10.9239	0.0000	181.1
173		Cornell	Ivy	-11.5636	0.0000	189.6
174		Fordham	A10	-11.5973	0.0000	159.3
175		Iowa St.	B12	-11.7653	0.0000	148.5
176		Pepperdine	WCC	-11.8485	0.0000	170.8
177		Hawaii	WAC	-11.8939	0.0000	189.1
178	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-11.9119	0.0000	196.6
179		American	Pat	-12.0437	0.0000	186.8
180		Troy	SB	-12.1992	0.0000	183.5
181		Lafayette	Pat	-12.2387	0.0000	193.4
182		Appalachian St.	SC	-12.3022	0.0000	195.2
183		Harvard	Ivy	-12.3281	0.0000	189.5
184		Colgate	Pat	-12.3452	0.0000	190.6
185		Rutgers	BE	-12.3831	0.0000	155.1
186		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.4415	0.0000	165.6
187		UC Irvine	BW	-12.4676	0.0000	187.5
188		Detroit	Horz	-12.6453	0.0000	189.5
189		Murray St.	OVC	-12.7091	0.0000	208.0
190		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.7656	0.0000	197.5
191		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-12.7834	0.0000	204.1
192		Northwestern	B10	-12.8174	0.0000	166.1
193		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-12.9316	0.0000	200.4
194		Montana St.	BSky	-13.0012	0.0000	202.6
195		Gardner Webb	ASun	-13.1437	0.0000	208.4
196		Tulsa	CUSA	-13.2414	0.0000	192.2
197		Wyoming	MWC	-13.3027	0.0000	181.8
198		Indiana St.	MVC	-13.3175	0.0000	172.1
199		Oregon St.	P10	-13.4163	0.0000	175.3
200		Long Island	NEC	-13.5530	0.0000	212.3
201		New Hampshire	AE	-13.7948	0.0000	215.3
202		San Francisco	WCC	-13.8504	0.0000	189.5
203		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-13.8917	0.0000	203.5
204		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-13.9592	0.0000	222.4
205		Rider	MAAC	-13.9620	0.0000	217.4
206		Iowa	B10	-14.0147	0.0000	188.0
207		Jacksonville	ASun	-14.1364	0.0000	224.0
208		Central Michigan	MAC	-14.3192	0.0000	211.1
209		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.3249	0.0000	211.4
210		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-14.3618	0.0000	216.6
211		Cincinnati	BE	-14.3933	0.0000	176.6
212		Evansville	MVC	-14.4140	0.0000	189.4
213	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-14.5797	0.0000	240.0
214		St. Peter's	MAAC	-14.6078	0.0000	222.4
215		McNeese St.	Slnd	-14.7100	0.0000	224.4
216		Utah Valley St.	ind	-14.7329	0.0000	241.5
217		Lehigh	Pat	-14.7956	0.0000	223.7
218		Elon	SC	-14.9926	0.0000	222.8
219		Vermont	AE	-15.0079	0.0000	231.4
220		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-15.0257	0.0000	208.3
221		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-15.0506	0.0000	220.4
222		High Point	BSth	-15.0806	0.0000	227.0
223		Centenary	Sum	-15.1144	0.0000	230.5
224		Bowling Green	MAC	-15.1184	0.0000	214.7
225		Richmond	A10	-15.1747	0.0000	208.0
226		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.3383	0.0000	211.4
227		St. Francis NY	NEC	-15.3462	0.0000	236.9
228		Boston University	AE	-15.3938	0.0000	231.7
229		Southern Utah	Sum	-15.4359	0.0000	234.0
230		William & Mary	CAA	-15.5958	0.0000	223.2
231		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.6751	0.0000	247.6
232		Middle Tennessee	SB	-15.6846	0.0000	223.2
233		Portland	WCC	-15.6921	0.0000	216.3
234		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-15.7326	0.0000	241.0
235		Samford	OVC	-15.8685	0.0000	249.7
236		Wofford	SC	-15.8885	0.0000	232.0
237		San Jose St.	WAC	-15.9398	0.0000	239.0
238		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.9626	0.0000	247.1
239		Hartford	AE	-16.0891	0.0000	232.2
240		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-16.1481	0.0000	244.6
241		Weber St.	BSky	-16.1650	0.0000	240.4
242		Liberty	BSth	-16.2884	0.0000	236.9
243		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.2924	0.0000	245.1
244		Mercer	ASun	-16.3422	0.0000	256.6
245		Loyola MD	MAAC	-16.3518	0.0000	239.3
246		Princeton	Ivy	-16.4456	0.0000	248.7
247		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-16.4604	0.0000	256.3
248		Fairfield	MAAC	-16.5410	0.0000	243.3
249		Sacred Heart	NEC	-16.5532	0.0000	247.9
250		Monmouth	NEC	-16.5696	0.0000	250.6
251		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-16.6668	0.0000	245.5
252		Delaware	CAA	-16.9942	0.0000	239.8
253		NC Greensboro	SC	-17.0991	0.0000	247.2
254		Buffalo	MAC	-17.3404	0.0000	234.9
255		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-17.4085	0.0000	245.7
256		St. Bonaventure	A10	-17.4109	0.0000	233.4
257		Iona	MAAC	-17.4260	0.0000	257.1
258		Delaware St.	MEAC	-17.4979	0.0000	258.5
259		Arkansas St.	SB	-17.5698	0.0000	255.9
260		Northern Colorado	BSky	-17.6156	0.0000	262.7
261		Eastern Washington	BSky	-17.7063	0.0000	254.9
262		Long Beach St.	BW	-17.7286	0.0000	254.8
263		Denver	SB	-17.7495	0.0000	252.6
264		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-17.7761	0.0000	256.5
265		Tennessee St.	OVC	-17.9292	0.0000	265.0
266		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-17.9504	0.0000	243.2
267		Columbia	Ivy	-18.0360	0.0000	264.3
268		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.0906	0.0000	246.5
269		Lamar	Slnd	-18.1786	0.0000	264.4
270		La Salle	A10	-18.3133	0.0000	241.0
271		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.4541	0.0000	275.8
272		Texas St.	Slnd	-18.4914	0.0000	264.3
273		Dartmouth	Ivy	-18.5456	0.0000	274.2
274		Ball St.	MAC	-18.5643	0.0000	258.1
275		Chicago St.	ind	-18.8306	0.0000	272.5
276		Towson	CAA	-18.8993	0.0000	264.2
277		Southern	SWAC	-18.9643	0.0000	277.7
278		Central Connecticut	NEC	-19.0830	0.0000	281.9
279		St. Francis PA	NEC	-19.0841	0.0000	282.6
280		UC Davis	BW	-19.1270	0.0000	275.0
281		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-19.1584	0.0000	277.6
282		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-19.5877	0.0000	278.7
283		Army	Pat	-19.6144	0.0000	278.4
284		Maine	AE	-19.7029	0.0000	282.2
285		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-19.8356	0.0000	298.0
286		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.9192	0.0000	276.0
287		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.9424	0.0000	267.0
288		Rice	CUSA	-19.9541	0.0000	267.5
289		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.1864	0.0000	293.5
290		Navy	Pat	-20.2244	0.0000	288.9
291		Western Carolina	SC	-20.3215	0.0000	284.3
292		Stetson	ASun	-20.4252	0.0000	293.3
293		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-20.4307	0.0000	294.2
294		South Dakota St.	Sum	-20.4546	0.0000	295.5
295		Texas Southern	SWAC	-20.4778	0.0000	292.5
296		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-20.4816	0.0000	279.0
297		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.5496	0.0000	302.2
298		Furman	SC	-20.5661	0.0000	291.6
299		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-20.5994	0.0000	263.3
300		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-20.6812	0.0000	298.9
301		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.6859	0.0000	279.1
302		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.8589	0.0000	299.6
303		Florida Atlantic	SB	-20.9275	0.0000	282.0
304		Savannah St.	ind	-20.9475	0.0000	299.6
305		Florida International	SB	-21.0426	0.0000	276.5
306		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.3487	0.0000	318.0
307		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.3875	0.0000	305.7
308		Idaho St.	BSky	-21.4319	0.0000	303.9
309		UC Riverside	BW	-21.4736	0.0000	282.6
310		Radford	BSth	-21.5516	0.0000	303.3
311		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-21.5600	0.0000	315.9
312		Stony Brook	AE	-21.5624	0.0000	308.9
313		Binghamton	AE	-21.6994	0.0000	315.7
314		Campbell	ASun	-21.7052	0.0000	315.5
315		Grambling	SWAC	-21.7763	0.0000	316.2
316		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-21.8333	0.0000	302.5
317		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.8951	0.0000	318.5
318		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.0537	0.0000	307.7
319		Morehead St.	OVC	-22.2592	0.0000	311.4
320		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.3839	0.0000	313.2
321		Texas Pan American	ind	-22.6214	0.0000	329.2
322		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.6283	0.0000	322.8
323		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-22.6744	0.0000	317.8
324		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.7099	0.0000	331.0
325		Jackson St.	SWAC	-22.7116	0.0000	319.1
326		Longwood	ind	-22.8936	0.0000	325.7
327		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.9670	0.0000	328.6
328		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.2303	0.0000	315.8
329		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.2322	0.0000	320.7
330		Howard	MEAC	-23.2810	0.0000	318.6
331		Western Illinois	Sum	-23.2971	0.0000	316.8
332		Canisius	MAAC	-23.4937	0.0000	326.0
333		Idaho	WAC	-23.6368	0.0000	324.0
334		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.7600	0.0000	331.1
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.7640	0.0000	340.8
336		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.8598	0.0000	337.5
337		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.9848	0.0000	336.4
338		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-24.1084	0.0000	330.3
339		Presbyterian	ind	-24.2994	0.0000	330.3
340		The Citadel	SC	-24.5241	0.0000	323.0
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.2850	0.0000	339.1

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com