Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Nov 6, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	7.7276	1.0000	2.5
2	X	Florida	SEC	7.6221	1.0000	5.2
3	X	Kansas	B12	6.5362	1.0000	7.2
4		Duke	ACC	6.3309	1.0000	7.2
5	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.0472	1.0000	6.1
6		Arizona	P10	5.2433	1.0000	10.9
7	X	UCLA	P10	5.2411	1.0000	14.4
8	X	Georgetown	BE	5.1237	1.0000	13.6
9		Kentucky	SEC	4.9253	1.0000	14.0
10		Villanova	BE	4.8981	1.0000	14.0
11		Pittsburgh	BE	4.7295	1.0000	17.1
12		Texas	B12	4.4241	1.0000	16.3
13	X	Ohio St.	B10	4.0380	1.0000	23.3
14		Texas A&M	B12	3.9596	1.0000	18.7
15		Tennessee	SEC	3.9522	1.0000	16.9
16		Louisville	BE	3.8637	0.9999	22.3
17		Maryland	ACC	3.5424	0.9998	23.0
18		Connecticut	BE	3.3499	0.9996	25.2
19		Wisconsin	B10	3.3361	0.9996	29.2
20		Boston College	ACC	3.3105	0.9995	23.7
21		Illinois	B10	2.8835	0.9980	26.3
22		Michigan St.	B10	2.7730	0.9972	28.3
23		West Virginia	BE	2.6660	0.9962	34.3
24	X	Southern Illinois	MVC	2.6120	0.9955	29.4
25		Louisiana St.	SEC	2.5946	0.9953	29.3
26	X	Xavier	A10	2.5465	0.9946	33.4
27		Mississippi St.	SEC	2.5075	0.9939	28.4
28		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.5042	0.9939	27.3
29		Arkansas	SEC	2.1675	0.9849	29.1
30		Alabama	SEC	2.0896	0.9817	31.0
31		Syracuse	BE	2.0027	0.9774	29.4
32		Notre Dame	BE	1.9598	0.9750	37.9
33	X	Gonzaga	WCC	1.8456	0.9675	41.6
34	X	Nevada	WAC	1.7924	0.9635	38.0
35		Indiana	B10	1.6527	0.9508	36.2
36		Oregon	P10	1.6158	0.9469	37.2
37		Oklahoma	B12	1.4214	0.9224	36.9
38		Washington	P10	1.0333	0.8493	41.5
39		Oklahoma St.	B12	1.0314	0.8488	36.8
40	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.9598	0.8314	44.2
41		Missouri St.	MVC	0.8869	0.8124	45.0
42		Georgia Tech	ACC	0.5858	0.7210	49.2
43		Clemson	ACC	0.5446	0.7070	44.5
44		Creighton	MVC	0.1835	0.5728	54.2
45		Stanford	P10	0.1321	0.5526	48.4
46		Florida St.	ACC	0.1050	0.5418	44.6
47	X	Butler	Horz	-0.0859	0.4658	63.9
48		Air Force	MWC	-0.1167	0.4535	56.8
49		Virginia	ACC	-0.4519	0.3257	47.0
50		Southern California	P10	-0.4635	0.3215	54.2
51		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.7573	0.2244	57.9
52		Brigham Young	MWC	-0.8453	0.1990	57.2
53	X	Old Dominion	CAA	-0.9072	0.1821	65.5
54		Wichita St.	MVC	-0.9559	0.1696	61.1
55		Marquette	BE	-1.0293	0.1517	57.9
56		Texas Tech	B12	-1.1289	0.1295	57.0
57		North Carolina St.	ACC	-1.2148	0.1122	60.9
58		Kansas St.	B12	-1.3005	0.0967	61.8
59		George Washington	A10	-1.4097	0.0793	70.7
60		DePaul	BE	-1.4138	0.0787	60.9
61	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.4451	0.0742	76.8
62	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-1.6624	0.0482	73.0
63		Michigan	B10	-1.6796	0.0465	62.8
64		Virginia Tech	ACC	-1.7313	0.0417	60.9
65		South Carolina	SEC	-1.7675	0.0386	61.2
66		UAB	CUSA	-1.8064	0.0354	73.1
67		Houston	CUSA	-1.8260	0.0339	69.3
68		George Mason	CAA	-1.9734	0.0242	78.3
69		Kent St.	MAC	-2.1435	0.0160	79.8
70		Bradley	MVC	-2.1870	0.0144	72.7
71		Washington St.	P10	-2.2502	0.0122	68.6
72		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-2.3149	0.0103	83.2
73		Bucknell	Pat	-2.3999	0.0082	82.6
74		Northern Iowa	MVC	-2.5573	0.0053	74.9
75		Georgia	SEC	-2.5929	0.0048	67.3
76		California	P10	-2.6197	0.0044	66.3
77		Massachusetts	A10	-2.6262	0.0043	74.9
78		Western Kentucky	SB	-2.7482	0.0030	89.4
79		Utah St.	WAC	-2.8521	0.0022	84.5
80	X	Akron	MAC	-2.8848	0.0020	89.9
81		Providence	BE	-3.0589	0.0011	71.4
82	X	Davidson	SC	-3.0631	0.0011	99.7
83		Purdue	B10	-3.0821	0.0010	74.0
84		Cincinnati	BE	-3.1141	0.0009	73.4
85		Iowa	B10	-3.3234	0.0004	81.7
86		Hawaii	WAC	-3.3244	0.0004	87.4
87		Mississippi	SEC	-3.4550	0.0003	75.7
88		Temple	A10	-3.5594	0.0002	87.5
89		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.6595	0.0001	85.4
90		Drexel	CAA	-3.8247	0.0001	94.0
91		St. Louis	A10	-3.8344	0.0001	83.0
92		Miami OH	MAC	-3.9678	0.0000	95.1
93		Charlotte	A10	-4.0018	0.0000	89.5
94	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-4.0445	0.0000	108.4
95		Hofstra	CAA	-4.0714	0.0000	99.6
96		Auburn	SEC	-4.1868	0.0000	83.3
97		Missouri	B12	-4.2551	0.0000	87.2
98		Dayton	A10	-4.2635	0.0000	87.5
99		Wake Forest	ACC	-4.3741	0.0000	88.3
100		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-4.3797	0.0000	96.7
101	X	Oral Roberts	Sum	-4.4692	0.0000	110.6
102		Miami FL	ACC	-5.1673	0.0000	85.2
103		Seton Hall	BE	-5.5710	0.0000	100.2
104		Marist	MAAC	-5.8030	0.0000	123.9
105		Nebraska	B12	-5.8770	0.0000	109.3
106	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-5.9164	0.0000	123.1
107	X	Vermont	AE	-6.1281	0.0000	129.4
108		Ohio	MAC	-6.1856	0.0000	116.8
109		St. Mary's	WCC	-6.2475	0.0000	121.5
110		Utah	MWC	-6.3650	0.0000	104.7
111		Fresno St.	WAC	-6.3757	0.0000	119.1
112		New Mexico	MWC	-6.5240	0.0000	110.5
113		Toledo	MAC	-6.5384	0.0000	125.1
114		Santa Clara	WCC	-6.5888	0.0000	122.3
115		Boise St.	WAC	-6.6068	0.0000	122.1
116	X	Belmont	ASun	-6.8611	0.0000	138.7
117		Appalachian St.	SC	-6.8816	0.0000	138.1
118		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.9268	0.0000	127.8
119		Tulsa	CUSA	-6.9875	0.0000	123.9
120		New Mexico St.	WAC	-7.0037	0.0000	124.0
121	X	Siena	MAAC	-7.0099	0.0000	133.6
122		Middle Tennessee	SB	-7.0645	0.0000	132.6
123	X	Murray St.	OVC	-7.1388	0.0000	143.7
124		St. John's	BE	-7.1747	0.0000	106.6
125	X	South Alabama	SB	-7.1796	0.0000	136.5
126		Iowa St.	B12	-7.2430	0.0000	119.0
127		Baylor	B12	-7.2802	0.0000	109.8
128		Albany	AE	-7.4217	0.0000	144.6
129		Wright St.	Horz	-7.8422	0.0000	141.7
130		College of Charleston	SC	-7.9028	0.0000	148.3
131		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-8.1345	0.0000	143.3
132		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-8.2439	0.0000	143.9
133		Colorado St.	MWC	-8.2601	0.0000	130.4
134		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-8.2828	0.0000	153.6
135		Rhode Island	A10	-8.5256	0.0000	132.8
136		NC Wilmington	CAA	-8.6346	0.0000	141.7
137		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-8.6971	0.0000	156.4
138		Wyoming	MWC	-8.7421	0.0000	135.9
139		Fordham	A10	-8.9556	0.0000	141.8
140		North Texas	SB	-9.0092	0.0000	162.3
141		San Diego	WCC	-9.1918	0.0000	147.5
142		Austin Peay	OVC	-9.2246	0.0000	164.6
143		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-9.2398	0.0000	151.8
144	X	Pacific	BW	-9.2669	0.0000	164.9
145		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.3131	0.0000	138.0
146		Minnesota	B10	-9.3915	0.0000	130.7
147		Rice	CUSA	-9.5017	0.0000	153.5
148		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9.6417	0.0000	151.2
149		Rutgers	BE	-9.7166	0.0000	136.6
150		Colorado	B12	-9.7201	0.0000	136.9
151		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.7589	0.0000	173.8
152		Arizona St.	P10	-9.7630	0.0000	132.7
153		Western Michigan	MAC	-9.8198	0.0000	167.8
154	X	Central Connecticut	NEC	-9.9664	0.0000	177.6
155		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-9.9713	0.0000	177.7
156		San Francisco	WCC	-10.0782	0.0000	156.8
157		Evansville	MVC	-10.1054	0.0000	143.9
158	X	Montana	BSky	-10.1499	0.0000	172.2
159		Niagara	MAAC	-10.1626	0.0000	178.7
160		Tulane	CUSA	-10.1656	0.0000	160.9
161		Valparaiso	Horz	-10.2119	0.0000	165.5
162		UC Irvine	BW	-10.2750	0.0000	170.5
163		Northern Arizona	BSky	-10.3025	0.0000	178.1
164		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-10.3053	0.0000	171.9
165		Marshall	CUSA	-10.3716	0.0000	156.9
166		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-10.4757	0.0000	181.2
167		Long Beach St.	BW	-10.4789	0.0000	176.5
168		Boston University	AE	-10.5764	0.0000	175.6
169		Yale	Ivy	-10.6088	0.0000	172.8
170		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-10.6130	0.0000	166.1
171		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.6417	0.0000	168.9
172		Drake	MVC	-10.6570	0.0000	152.5
173		Northeastern	CAA	-10.6884	0.0000	160.8
174		Detroit	Horz	-10.6889	0.0000	170.4
175		North Dakota St.	Sum	-10.8342	0.0000	188.0
176		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-10.8654	0.0000	188.1
177		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-10.9166	0.0000	166.0
178		Arkansas St.	SB	-10.9468	0.0000	184.5
179		American	Pat	-11.0343	0.0000	180.0
180		Samford	OVC	-11.0455	0.0000	185.8
181		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.0594	0.0000	182.5
182		Northwestern	B10	-11.0685	0.0000	145.0
183		NC Asheville	BSth	-11.1439	0.0000	178.0
184		Manhattan	MAAC	-11.3399	0.0000	190.2
185		Oakland	Sum	-11.3559	0.0000	185.2
186		Penn St.	B10	-11.7611	0.0000	147.6
187		Troy	SB	-11.8559	0.0000	184.8
188		High Point	BSth	-11.8823	0.0000	193.7
189		IUPUI	Sum	-11.9785	0.0000	197.1
190		Chattanooga	SC	-12.0068	0.0000	192.0
191		Buffalo	MAC	-12.0516	0.0000	184.6
192		Fairfield	MAAC	-12.0577	0.0000	190.2
193		Georgia Southern	SC	-12.1673	0.0000	195.3
194		Monmouth	NEC	-12.3113	0.0000	202.4
195		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.3211	0.0000	166.1
196		South Florida	BE	-12.4880	0.0000	165.1
197		Oregon St.	P10	-12.5564	0.0000	164.4
198		Indiana St.	MVC	-12.6621	0.0000	166.9
199		Lehigh	Pat	-12.8324	0.0000	199.9
200		Cornell	Ivy	-12.8415	0.0000	202.8
201		Eastern Washington	BSky	-13.0050	0.0000	205.5
202		Lipscomb	ASun	-13.0111	0.0000	214.7
203		Portland St.	BSky	-13.1239	0.0000	210.2
204		Loyola MD	MAAC	-13.2762	0.0000	205.4
205		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.4262	0.0000	208.5
206		Princeton	Ivy	-13.5270	0.0000	216.6
207		Rider	MAAC	-13.5668	0.0000	211.2
208	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-13.7019	0.0000	217.9
209		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.7532	0.0000	201.5
210		Furman	SC	-13.8230	0.0000	215.8
211		La Salle	A10	-13.8727	0.0000	195.6
212		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-13.9059	0.0000	217.3
213		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-13.9874	0.0000	207.3
214		New Orleans	SB	-13.9878	0.0000	218.7
215		Binghamton	AE	-14.0689	0.0000	221.8
216		Utah Valley St.	ind	-14.1699	0.0000	232.5
217		Ball St.	MAC	-14.1729	0.0000	211.2
218		Sacred Heart	NEC	-14.1754	0.0000	220.5
219		Southern Utah	Sum	-14.2750	0.0000	221.2
220		Richmond	A10	-14.3440	0.0000	200.1
221		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-14.3638	0.0000	224.1
222		Weber St.	BSky	-14.3853	0.0000	225.2
223		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-14.5963	0.0000	228.6
224		Lamar	Slnd	-14.8868	0.0000	227.7
225		Robert Morris	NEC	-15.1059	0.0000	236.8
226		Cal Poly	BW	-15.1508	0.0000	229.8
227		Northern Illinois	MAC	-15.2608	0.0000	218.9
228		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-15.2904	0.0000	232.2
229		Idaho St.	BSky	-15.3671	0.0000	230.3
230		Iona	MAAC	-15.6047	0.0000	231.9
231		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-15.6396	0.0000	237.2
232		Columbia	Ivy	-15.6737	0.0000	241.6
233		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-15.7161	0.0000	237.4
234		William & Mary	CAA	-15.7491	0.0000	220.8
235		Towson	CAA	-15.7525	0.0000	222.1
236		Harvard	Ivy	-15.7943	0.0000	232.6
237		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-15.8787	0.0000	241.5
238		Hampton	MEAC	-15.9524	0.0000	245.4
239		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.9532	0.0000	246.6
240		Canisius	MAAC	-16.2048	0.0000	245.4
241		Hartford	AE	-16.2293	0.0000	239.6
242		Florida Atlantic	SB	-16.3030	0.0000	242.5
243		Wagner	NEC	-16.3067	0.0000	249.0
244		McNeese St.	Slnd	-16.3307	0.0000	248.2
245		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.3492	0.0000	229.9
246		Florida A&M	MEAC	-16.3843	0.0000	251.4
247		Tennessee St.	OVC	-16.6927	0.0000	244.9
248		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-16.6933	0.0000	246.7
249		Chicago St.	ind	-16.7500	0.0000	251.9
250		Bowling Green	MAC	-16.8218	0.0000	237.7
251		Florida International	SB	-17.2115	0.0000	246.1
252		Georgia St.	CAA	-17.2188	0.0000	233.2
253		Gardner Webb	ASun	-17.2615	0.0000	259.8
254		Colgate	Pat	-17.3112	0.0000	249.0
255		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.3699	0.0000	264.4
256		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.3727	0.0000	250.0
257		Brown	Ivy	-17.3951	0.0000	254.5
258		Wofford	SC	-17.4065	0.0000	250.4
259		St. Peter's	MAAC	-17.4086	0.0000	256.2
260		St. Francis NY	NEC	-17.4275	0.0000	264.1
261		Delaware	CAA	-17.6064	0.0000	237.7
262		Duquesne	A10	-17.7242	0.0000	243.4
263		Jacksonville	ASun	-17.7637	0.0000	270.4
264		Portland	WCC	-17.7664	0.0000	249.6
265		East Carolina	CUSA	-17.8512	0.0000	243.9
266		San Jose St.	WAC	-17.9126	0.0000	244.7
267		Montana St.	BSky	-18.0748	0.0000	265.5
268		New Hampshire	AE	-18.1313	0.0000	270.1
269		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-18.1507	0.0000	271.3
270	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-18.1619	0.0000	278.2
271		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-18.1665	0.0000	258.9
272		Lafayette	Pat	-18.2050	0.0000	259.5
273		Navy	Pat	-18.2932	0.0000	261.8
274		Maine	AE	-18.3257	0.0000	269.7
275		Stony Brook	AE	-18.4428	0.0000	272.2
276		Cleveland St.	Horz	-18.6188	0.0000	256.1
277		Western Carolina	SC	-18.8210	0.0000	266.6
278		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-18.8340	0.0000	270.1
279		Stetson	ASun	-18.9392	0.0000	283.0
280		Liberty	BSth	-18.9651	0.0000	270.3
281		Radford	BSth	-18.9827	0.0000	267.2
282		Southern	SWAC	-19.0503	0.0000	286.7
283		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-19.0729	0.0000	276.0
284		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.1482	0.0000	282.0
285		Campbell	ASun	-19.2890	0.0000	288.3
286		Mercer	ASun	-19.3340	0.0000	285.6
287		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.3547	0.0000	277.3
288		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-19.6080	0.0000	283.2
289		Sacramento St.	BSky	-19.6097	0.0000	278.5
290		Long Island	NEC	-19.6508	0.0000	286.0
291		MD Baltimore County	AE	-19.6876	0.0000	278.4
292		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-19.8137	0.0000	279.3
293		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.8219	0.0000	295.1
294		Central Michigan	MAC	-19.8312	0.0000	279.8
295		Denver	SB	-19.8391	0.0000	289.8
296		NC Greensboro	SC	-19.9382	0.0000	277.1
297		Charleston Southern	BSth	-20.0213	0.0000	284.1
298		Elon	SC	-20.2292	0.0000	279.2
299		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.3353	0.0000	272.4
300		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-20.4407	0.0000	294.7
301		Texas St.	Slnd	-20.5007	0.0000	298.4
302		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.7126	0.0000	303.8
303		St. Francis PA	NEC	-20.7334	0.0000	300.4
304		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-20.7575	0.0000	303.2
305		Centenary	Sum	-20.8156	0.0000	291.9
306		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.8556	0.0000	311.4
307		Dartmouth	Ivy	-20.9557	0.0000	300.8
308		Morehead St.	OVC	-21.0078	0.0000	297.0
309		James Madison	CAA	-21.0179	0.0000	276.2
310		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-21.0525	0.0000	296.2
311		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.2567	0.0000	313.3
312		Idaho	WAC	-21.2900	0.0000	279.4
313		Western Illinois	Sum	-21.3196	0.0000	300.7
314		Morgan St.	MEAC	-21.4008	0.0000	309.0
315		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.4376	0.0000	315.5
316		Texas Southern	SWAC	-21.4819	0.0000	310.3
317		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-21.5610	0.0000	300.0
318		Grambling	SWAC	-21.6519	0.0000	318.0
319		Army	Pat	-21.6575	0.0000	306.2
320		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-21.6934	0.0000	297.3
321		UC Davis	BW	-21.8859	0.0000	312.7
322		UC Riverside	BW	-21.9516	0.0000	305.0
323		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-21.9888	0.0000	316.8
324		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.0527	0.0000	319.9
325		Longwood	ind	-22.3349	0.0000	316.0
326		Howard	MEAC	-22.3606	0.0000	323.6
327		South Dakota St.	Sum	-22.3873	0.0000	317.8
328		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-22.6445	0.0000	323.0
329		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-22.8058	0.0000	328.1
330		Northern Colorado	BSky	-23.0238	0.0000	322.7
331		North Florida	ASun	-23.1428	0.0000	327.5
332		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.3525	0.0000	333.3
333		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.4892	0.0000	327.4
334		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-23.5795	0.0000	339.5
335		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-23.6536	0.0000	332.2
336		The Citadel	SC	-23.6546	0.0000	316.5
337		Savannah St.	ind	-23.6649	0.0000	328.1
338		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.3097	0.0000	331.9
339		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-25.0052	0.0000	335.7
340		Presbyterian	ind	-25.0132	0.0000	335.5
341		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-25.4786	0.0000	335.9

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com