Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Jan 6, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.6823	1.0000	2.0
2	X	UCLA	P10	8.2575	1.0000	2.3
3		Arizona	P10	8.1008	1.0000	3.3
4	X	Texas A&M	B12	7.3556	1.0000	7.8
5	X	Florida	SEC	6.8564	1.0000	11.2
6	X	Air Force	MWC	6.6534	1.0000	11.9
7	X	Ohio St.	B10	6.3599	1.0000	10.2
8		Clemson	ACC	6.0731	1.0000	13.0
9		Wisconsin	B10	5.9643	1.0000	14.6
10		Duke	ACC	5.6589	1.0000	5.7
11		Kentucky	SEC	5.3862	1.0000	12.4
12		Pittsburgh	BE	5.3720	1.0000	11.5
13		Tennessee	SEC	5.2224	1.0000	11.9
14	X	Butler	Horz	5.0366	1.0000	23.7
15		Oklahoma St.	B12	5.0063	1.0000	15.1
16		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.7188	1.0000	17.8
17	X	Memphis	CUSA	4.5988	1.0000	20.0
18	X	Missouri St.	MVC	4.3403	1.0000	21.5
19		Georgia Tech	ACC	4.2826	1.0000	24.6
20		Alabama	SEC	4.1224	1.0000	18.4
21		Kansas	B12	4.0428	1.0000	29.6
22	X	Notre Dame	BE	4.0264	1.0000	29.4
23		Maryland	ACC	4.0048	1.0000	15.1
24	X	Nevada	WAC	3.8291	0.9999	31.8
25		West Virginia	BE	3.6486	0.9999	26.5
26		Purdue	B10	3.6437	0.9999	31.3
27		Villanova	BE	3.5636	0.9998	14.9
28		Connecticut	BE	3.5438	0.9998	28.1
29		Drexel	CAA	3.4448	0.9997	34.2
30	X	Xavier	A10	2.8558	0.9979	39.1
31		Washington St.	P10	2.8472	0.9978	37.4
32		Oregon	P10	2.7501	0.9970	28.6
33		Michigan St.	B10	2.5456	0.9945	27.1
34		Southern Illinois	MVC	2.3287	0.9901	32.3
35		Georgetown	BE	2.2764	0.9886	35.3
36		Indiana	B10	1.8708	0.9693	36.9
37		Arkansas	SEC	1.6273	0.9482	31.0
38		Louisiana St.	SEC	1.2952	0.9024	37.7
39		Mississippi St.	SEC	1.1722	0.8795	41.7
40		Illinois	B10	1.0959	0.8634	33.4
41		Virginia Tech	ACC	1.0421	0.8513	46.2
42		Georgia	SEC	0.8631	0.8059	47.3
43		Southern California	P10	0.6993	0.7578	44.8
44		Texas	B12	0.6002	0.7258	49.5
45		Wichita St.	MVC	0.3204	0.6257	52.5
46	X	Western Kentucky	SB	0.3175	0.6245	58.1
47		Providence	BE	0.2801	0.6103	48.2
48		California	P10	0.2265	0.5896	43.8
49		Missouri	B12	0.1324	0.5527	45.8
50		Oklahoma	B12	0.0157	0.5063	47.1
51		Florida St.	ACC	-0.0052	0.4979	45.8
52		Marquette	BE	-0.0897	0.4643	43.1
53	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.1055	0.4580	60.8
54		Boston College	ACC	-0.2300	0.4090	51.2
55		Syracuse	BE	-0.5016	0.3080	45.9
56		DePaul	BE	-0.9432	0.1728	57.6
57		Brigham Young	MWC	-0.9522	0.1705	60.1
58	X	Gonzaga	WCC	-0.9526	0.1704	65.5
59		Texas Tech	B12	-0.9684	0.1664	47.1
60		Creighton	MVC	-1.0356	0.1502	55.3
61	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.1076	0.1340	82.3
62		Northern Iowa	MVC	-1.2151	0.1122	67.8
63		Nebraska	B12	-1.2660	0.1028	62.6
64		Appalachian St.	SC	-1.5312	0.0629	81.9
65		Virginia	ACC	-1.6760	0.0469	65.3
66	X	Davidson	SC	-1.7181	0.0429	80.7
67		Washington	P10	-1.7255	0.0422	58.7
68		Michigan	B10	-1.8716	0.0306	57.7
69		Bradley	MVC	-1.9134	0.0278	61.6
70		George Washington	A10	-1.9758	0.0241	75.1
71		Old Dominion	CAA	-2.0787	0.0188	69.2
72	X	Akron	MAC	-2.3788	0.0087	85.8
73		Dayton	A10	-2.4683	0.0068	72.0
74		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.6243	0.0043	69.9
75		Massachusetts	A10	-2.7414	0.0031	87.4
76		Fresno St.	WAC	-2.7415	0.0031	86.5
77		Stanford	P10	-3.0945	0.0010	68.4
78		St. Louis	A10	-3.1164	0.0009	81.2
79		Tulsa	CUSA	-3.1505	0.0008	78.8
80		New Mexico St.	WAC	-3.1782	0.0007	87.5
81	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.3960	0.0003	95.5
82		Louisville	BE	-3.4600	0.0003	70.2
83	X	Marist	MAAC	-4.0533	0.0000	108.6
84		Ohio	MAC	-4.1323	0.0000	100.0
85		Kansas St.	B12	-4.1966	0.0000	80.2
86		UAB	CUSA	-4.2050	0.0000	91.5
87		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-4.2625	0.0000	101.1
88		South Carolina	SEC	-4.2779	0.0000	75.1
89	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-4.3964	0.0000	108.6
90		Boise St.	WAC	-4.4053	0.0000	102.5
91		Indiana St.	MVC	-4.4408	0.0000	84.5
92	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-4.4822	0.0000	103.9
93		Santa Clara	WCC	-4.5384	0.0000	100.3
94		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-4.5742	0.0000	99.1
95	X	Belmont	ASun	-4.6096	0.0000	120.1
96		Kent St.	MAC	-4.8790	0.0000	110.9
97		Hawaii	WAC	-4.9828	0.0000	97.9
98		New Mexico	MWC	-5.0243	0.0000	98.0
99	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-5.0868	0.0000	104.4
100		Temple	A10	-5.1506	0.0000	100.6
101		Cincinnati	BE	-5.2399	0.0000	88.5
102		Houston	CUSA	-5.4081	0.0000	98.2
103		Iowa	B10	-5.7685	0.0000	97.1
104		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-5.8152	0.0000	126.2
105		Colorado St.	MWC	-5.8572	0.0000	110.2
106		Utah St.	WAC	-5.9119	0.0000	102.8
107		George Mason	CAA	-5.9654	0.0000	115.0
108		Siena	MAAC	-6.1027	0.0000	130.5
109		Mississippi	SEC	-6.1252	0.0000	90.9
110		Vanderbilt	SEC	-6.1591	0.0000	97.1
111		Saint Joseph's	A10	-6.2520	0.0000	106.3
112		Albany	AE	-6.2635	0.0000	127.4
113		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-6.2655	0.0000	111.6
114		Hofstra	CAA	-6.3255	0.0000	120.2
115		Auburn	SEC	-6.3303	0.0000	96.5
116		Wake Forest	ACC	-6.3805	0.0000	102.8
117		Evansville	MVC	-6.4015	0.0000	96.6
118		Wyoming	MWC	-6.5356	0.0000	115.5
119		Robert Morris	NEC	-6.5863	0.0000	138.5
120		Samford	OVC	-6.7411	0.0000	142.6
121		Bucknell	Pat	-6.8316	0.0000	132.6
122		Penn St.	B10	-6.8702	0.0000	103.9
123		Fordham	A10	-6.8832	0.0000	126.4
124	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-7.0783	0.0000	133.5
125		North Carolina St.	ACC	-7.2672	0.0000	100.7
126		Seton Hall	BE	-7.2733	0.0000	101.5
127		Vermont	AE	-7.3776	0.0000	142.2
128		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.3878	0.0000	139.4
129		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-7.4091	0.0000	129.0
130		Utah	MWC	-7.6746	0.0000	135.9
131		Baylor	B12	-7.6834	0.0000	102.1
132	X	Sacred Heart	NEC	-7.6894	0.0000	149.6
133		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-7.7313	0.0000	137.4
134		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.8730	0.0000	150.0
135	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-7.9170	0.0000	136.6
136		North Texas	SB	-7.9233	0.0000	154.2
137		Western Michigan	MAC	-7.9639	0.0000	141.9
138		College of Charleston	SC	-8.1319	0.0000	139.3
139		Northwestern	B10	-8.1563	0.0000	115.9
140		Texas Christian	MWC	-8.5732	0.0000	126.3
141		Middle Tennessee	SB	-8.8991	0.0000	155.3
142		St. John's	BE	-8.8993	0.0000	119.5
143	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-9.0977	0.0000	169.1
144		Toledo	MAC	-9.1399	0.0000	154.7
145		South Florida	BE	-9.1527	0.0000	128.8
146		Loyola MD	MAAC	-9.2361	0.0000	169.6
147		Army	Pat	-9.2767	0.0000	152.2
148		San Diego	WCC	-9.2969	0.0000	158.8
149	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-9.3154	0.0000	164.4
150		Miami OH	MAC	-9.4017	0.0000	143.8
151		Charlotte	A10	-9.4212	0.0000	134.4
152		Miami FL	ACC	-9.4346	0.0000	140.5
153		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.5234	0.0000	123.3
154		Austin Peay	OVC	-9.5645	0.0000	171.9
155		Drake	MVC	-9.6103	0.0000	120.2
156		Utah Valley St.	ind	-9.8672	0.0000	175.5
157		Minnesota	B10	-10.0538	0.0000	134.0
158		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-10.0999	0.0000	175.1
159		Youngstown St.	Horz	-10.1672	0.0000	165.5
160		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.2535	0.0000	160.5
161		UC Irvine	BW	-10.3452	0.0000	164.0
162		Oakland	MCon	-10.3685	0.0000	164.4
163		Rider	MAAC	-10.4221	0.0000	176.7
164		Hartford	AE	-10.4461	0.0000	174.7
165		South Alabama	SB	-10.4857	0.0000	165.7
166		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-10.4873	0.0000	184.1
167		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-10.6111	0.0000	167.0
168		Furman	SC	-10.7137	0.0000	177.2
169		St. Mary's	WCC	-10.7376	0.0000	159.6
170		Marshall	CUSA	-10.7558	0.0000	163.1
171		Buffalo	MAC	-10.8241	0.0000	168.8
172		Navy	Pat	-10.8595	0.0000	173.1
173		Iowa St.	B12	-11.1209	0.0000	143.4
174		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-11.1912	0.0000	157.9
175		Towson	CAA	-11.2733	0.0000	157.5
176		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-11.3425	0.0000	190.0
177		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-11.4112	0.0000	186.2
178		North Dakota St.	ind	-11.4725	0.0000	199.3
179		Canisius	MAAC	-11.5378	0.0000	185.4
180		Princeton	Ivy	-11.5393	0.0000	185.0
181		Valparaiso	MCon	-11.5396	0.0000	185.6
182		William & Mary	CAA	-11.5838	0.0000	168.2
183		American	Pat	-11.6463	0.0000	187.5
184	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-11.7118	0.0000	195.6
185		Columbia	Ivy	-11.8691	0.0000	190.7
186		Murray St.	OVC	-11.8840	0.0000	198.9
187		Eastern Washington	BSky	-11.9923	0.0000	194.2
188		Pacific	BW	-12.0275	0.0000	184.5
189		Yale	Ivy	-12.0821	0.0000	185.4
190		Lipscomb	ASun	-12.3302	0.0000	199.4
191		Lamar	Slnd	-12.4749	0.0000	204.5
192		NC Greensboro	SC	-12.6455	0.0000	203.8
193		Southern Utah	MCon	-12.7383	0.0000	201.2
194		Rhode Island	A10	-12.7554	0.0000	168.6
195		Morehead St.	OVC	-12.8981	0.0000	216.8
196		Cornell	Ivy	-12.9225	0.0000	206.8
197		Troy	SB	-12.9531	0.0000	202.5
198		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-13.0962	0.0000	200.2
199		Florida Atlantic	SB	-13.3823	0.0000	204.5
200		Weber St.	BSky	-13.4290	0.0000	211.5
201		Harvard	Ivy	-13.5535	0.0000	201.3
202		Monmouth	NEC	-13.7088	0.0000	212.2
203		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-13.8349	0.0000	211.1
204		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.8399	0.0000	223.0
205		Wright St.	Horz	-13.8402	0.0000	204.6
206		IUPUI	MCon	-13.8708	0.0000	212.6
207		Jacksonville	ASun	-13.8896	0.0000	217.7
208		Brown	Ivy	-13.9705	0.0000	221.6
209		Montana	BSky	-14.0065	0.0000	218.2
210		High Point	BSth	-14.0495	0.0000	215.6
211		MD Baltimore County	AE	-14.1270	0.0000	215.3
212		Georgia Southern	SC	-14.1673	0.0000	218.2
213		Oregon St.	P10	-14.1806	0.0000	160.1
214		NC Wilmington	CAA	-14.2776	0.0000	201.7
215		Rice	CUSA	-14.2969	0.0000	204.8
216		Campbell	ASun	-14.3231	0.0000	221.6
217		Tulane	CUSA	-14.3592	0.0000	204.5
218		Portland St.	BSky	-14.4000	0.0000	217.8
219		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-14.4041	0.0000	223.2
220		Detroit	Horz	-14.4420	0.0000	208.1
221		San Francisco	WCC	-14.4497	0.0000	210.4
222	X	Boston University	AE	-14.4888	0.0000	222.9
223		Northern Arizona	BSky	-14.5446	0.0000	229.6
224		Ball St.	MAC	-14.6723	0.0000	209.5
225		Chattanooga	SC	-14.6860	0.0000	214.6
226		Niagara	MAAC	-14.8350	0.0000	229.0
227		New Orleans	SB	-14.8896	0.0000	225.0
228		Central Michigan	MAC	-15.0001	0.0000	222.6
229		Rutgers	BE	-15.0812	0.0000	175.5
230		Arizona St.	P10	-15.3533	0.0000	176.3
231		Duquesne	A10	-15.4302	0.0000	224.3
232		Pepperdine	WCC	-15.5268	0.0000	222.4
233		Texas Southern	SWAC	-15.7158	0.0000	244.5
234		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-15.7792	0.0000	246.3
235		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-15.9230	0.0000	239.0
236		Hampton	MEAC	-15.9323	0.0000	243.6
237		Tennessee St.	OVC	-15.9532	0.0000	236.3
238		Lehigh	Pat	-16.0416	0.0000	240.7
239		Florida A&M	MEAC	-16.0539	0.0000	248.7
240		Arkansas St.	SB	-16.2354	0.0000	244.3
241		Stony Brook	AE	-16.2393	0.0000	243.8
242		Manhattan	MAAC	-16.2934	0.0000	248.0
243		Binghamton	AE	-16.5386	0.0000	249.9
244		Dartmouth	Ivy	-16.5600	0.0000	236.0
245		Bowling Green	MAC	-16.6313	0.0000	236.9
246		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.7796	0.0000	257.5
247		Texas Pan American	ind	-16.8623	0.0000	256.6
248		Cleveland St.	Horz	-16.9427	0.0000	244.0
249		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-16.9557	0.0000	231.4
250		Georgia St.	CAA	-16.9942	0.0000	226.5
251		Fairfield	MAAC	-17.2978	0.0000	239.1
252		Northeastern	CAA	-17.4185	0.0000	228.4
253		Maine	AE	-17.5354	0.0000	254.5
254		La Salle	A10	-17.6360	0.0000	237.6
255		Centenary	MCon	-17.6988	0.0000	256.7
256		Mercer	ASun	-17.8029	0.0000	268.7
257		Western Carolina	SC	-17.8050	0.0000	248.9
258		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-17.8621	0.0000	230.8
259		Central Connecticut	NEC	-17.9152	0.0000	269.7
260		Stetson	ASun	-18.0064	0.0000	261.7
261		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.0971	0.0000	271.9
262		Chicago St.	MCon	-18.1830	0.0000	241.2
263		Howard	MEAC	-18.3717	0.0000	281.7
264		Cal Poly	BW	-18.3997	0.0000	270.2
265		Northern Illinois	MAC	-18.5022	0.0000	264.3
266		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.5892	0.0000	278.6
267		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-18.8659	0.0000	279.7
268		Colgate	Pat	-18.9424	0.0000	268.8
269		Richmond	A10	-18.9770	0.0000	244.4
270		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-19.1664	0.0000	273.6
271		Liberty	BSth	-19.2583	0.0000	276.2
272		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.3077	0.0000	265.4
273		NC Asheville	BSth	-19.3219	0.0000	278.3
274		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-19.3271	0.0000	274.8
275		Colorado	B12	-19.3813	0.0000	226.5
276		Lafayette	Pat	-19.4508	0.0000	268.5
277		Delaware	CAA	-19.5007	0.0000	268.3
278		Alabama St.	SWAC	-19.5448	0.0000	291.0
279		Radford	BSth	-19.6027	0.0000	282.3
280		Sacramento St.	BSky	-19.6510	0.0000	282.0
281		Quinnipiac	NEC	-19.7841	0.0000	293.2
282		Longwood	ind	-19.9155	0.0000	276.1
283		Gardner Webb	ASun	-19.9336	0.0000	276.7
284		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-20.1582	0.0000	283.9
285		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-20.2180	0.0000	295.5
286		Long Island	NEC	-20.2212	0.0000	297.2
287		San Jose St.	WAC	-20.2282	0.0000	255.3
288		Florida International	SB	-20.2708	0.0000	283.9
289		New Hampshire	AE	-20.4943	0.0000	296.4
290		East Carolina	CUSA	-20.5713	0.0000	285.4
291		Grambling	SWAC	-20.5929	0.0000	303.0
292		Wagner	NEC	-20.6408	0.0000	297.5
293		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-20.6535	0.0000	278.0
294		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.6845	0.0000	285.1
295		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-20.8369	0.0000	292.4
296		Southern	SWAC	-20.9642	0.0000	301.9
297		UC Davis	ind	-20.9918	0.0000	306.0
298		The Citadel	SC	-21.1055	0.0000	276.6
299		Savannah St.	ind	-21.1880	0.0000	294.7
300		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-21.2154	0.0000	297.9
301		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-21.2171	0.0000	296.7
302		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.2230	0.0000	303.4
303		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-21.2612	0.0000	299.5
304		McNeese St.	Slnd	-21.3956	0.0000	295.6
305		Charleston Southern	BSth	-21.4069	0.0000	305.7
306		Texas St.	Slnd	-21.4270	0.0000	301.5
307		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-21.6098	0.0000	294.8
308		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.6701	0.0000	304.1
309		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.6836	0.0000	309.2
310		St. Peter's	MAAC	-21.6998	0.0000	305.6
311		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.7926	0.0000	312.5
312		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-22.0161	0.0000	308.4
313		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.2575	0.0000	313.9
314		Portland	WCC	-22.3693	0.0000	295.2
315		James Madison	CAA	-22.3805	0.0000	293.9
316		Morgan St.	MEAC	-22.4506	0.0000	318.5
317		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.5372	0.0000	325.9
318		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.6869	0.0000	320.1
319		Montana St.	BSky	-22.6982	0.0000	318.2
320		Western Illinois	MCon	-22.8060	0.0000	320.1
321		UC Riverside	BW	-22.8126	0.0000	317.3
322		Iona	MAAC	-22.8903	0.0000	316.2
323		Wofford	SC	-22.9832	0.0000	310.5
324		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.0177	0.0000	325.0
325		Idaho	WAC	-23.1041	0.0000	287.3
326		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.2276	0.0000	327.4
327		Elon	SC	-23.3503	0.0000	305.0
328		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.4340	0.0000	328.8
329		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.6591	0.0000	323.4
330		Northern Colorado	BSky	-23.9409	0.0000	333.7
331		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.9795	0.0000	333.7
332		North Florida	ASun	-24.1256	0.0000	331.3
333		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-24.2380	0.0000	315.9
334		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-24.3252	0.0000	333.6
335		Denver	SB	-24.3783	0.0000	332.6
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.8138	0.0000	328.5

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com