Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Feb 6, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Florida	SEC	8.9746	1.0000	6.5
2	X	UCLA	P10	8.6465	1.0000	1.4
3	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.1822	1.0000	2.1
4	X	Ohio St.	B10	7.6136	1.0000	5.9
5		Wisconsin	B10	7.4575	1.0000	6.4
6		Pittsburgh	BE	7.3265	1.0000	4.2
7		Kentucky	SEC	6.8573	1.0000	6.0
8	X	Texas A&M	B12	6.5439	1.0000	10.3
9		Arizona	P10	5.3962	1.0000	8.8
10	X	Butler	Horz	5.3857	1.0000	20.4
11	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.2199	1.0000	12.0
12	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.9862	1.0000	16.4
13		Duke	ACC	4.8545	1.0000	6.6
14		Kansas	B12	4.7919	1.0000	19.6
15	X	Nevada	WAC	4.5896	1.0000	27.1
16		Marquette	BE	4.5835	1.0000	12.0
17		Air Force	MWC	4.3534	1.0000	22.8
18		Southern Illinois	MVC	4.2757	1.0000	18.8
19		Creighton	MVC	3.8915	1.0000	27.1
20		Oregon	P10	3.7838	0.9999	21.9
21		Washington St.	P10	3.6896	0.9999	32.6
22		Georgetown	BE	3.6647	0.9999	25.6
23		Indiana	B10	3.6375	0.9999	25.8
24		Clemson	ACC	3.3662	0.9996	25.8
25		Tennessee	SEC	3.3640	0.9996	17.6
26		Boston College	ACC	3.2302	0.9994	27.4
27		Villanova	BE	3.2159	0.9993	16.9
28		Brigham Young	MWC	3.1164	0.9991	30.1
29		Notre Dame	BE	3.0781	0.9990	44.2
30		Oklahoma St.	B12	2.6078	0.9954	30.6
31	X	Missouri St.	MVC	2.4951	0.9937	27.2
32		Virginia	ACC	2.4041	0.9919	37.7
33		Virginia Tech	ACC	2.3833	0.9914	36.8
34		Stanford	P10	2.2612	0.9881	36.7
35		Florida St.	ACC	2.2151	0.9866	26.5
36	X	Xavier	A10	1.9819	0.9763	46.2
37		Michigan St.	B10	1.8602	0.9686	26.4
38		West Virginia	BE	1.6486	0.9504	38.7
39		Alabama	SEC	1.5986	0.9451	33.3
40		Maryland	ACC	1.5056	0.9339	25.0
41		Vanderbilt	SEC	1.4626	0.9282	45.7
42		Purdue	B10	1.2452	0.8935	44.9
43		Georgia Tech	ACC	1.2450	0.8934	42.7
44	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	1.2060	0.8861	50.1
45		Southern California	P10	1.1427	0.8734	44.0
46		Georgia	SEC	1.0176	0.8456	44.3
47		Louisville	BE	0.8065	0.7900	47.5
48		Texas	B12	0.7481	0.7728	52.6
49		Arkansas	SEC	0.5340	0.7033	38.5
50		Illinois	B10	0.3853	0.6500	39.2
51	X	Gonzaga	WCC	0.3673	0.6433	57.2
52		Kansas St.	B12	0.2373	0.5938	53.9
53		Providence	BE	0.2317	0.5916	45.0
54		Appalachian St.	SC	-0.7377	0.2303	81.0
55		Old Dominion	CAA	-0.7429	0.2288	60.8
56		Texas Tech	B12	-0.8471	0.1985	47.3
57		Syracuse	BE	-1.0934	0.1371	49.8
58		Oklahoma	B12	-1.1855	0.1179	54.0
59	X	Akron	MAC	-1.2465	0.1063	76.1
60		Drexel	CAA	-1.2804	0.1002	62.9
61	X	Davidson	SC	-1.2818	0.1000	74.8
62		Massachusetts	A10	-1.3168	0.0940	72.8
63	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.3173	0.0939	85.2
64		St. Louis	A10	-1.3591	0.0871	75.9
65		Bradley	MVC	-1.3878	0.0826	50.6
66		New Mexico St.	WAC	-1.4868	0.0685	76.5
67		Wichita St.	MVC	-1.5225	0.0639	66.2
68		Hofstra	CAA	-1.5424	0.0615	85.4
69		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.6212	0.0525	64.5
70		Northern Iowa	MVC	-1.6668	0.0478	72.8
71		Michigan	B10	-1.7056	0.0440	56.3
72		Mississippi St.	SEC	-2.1534	0.0156	65.9
73	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-2.2539	0.0121	76.9
74	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-2.3400	0.0096	85.2
75		Nebraska	B12	-2.4958	0.0063	74.2
76		Mississippi	SEC	-2.6286	0.0043	68.1
77		Connecticut	BE	-2.8384	0.0023	63.6
78		California	P10	-3.0877	0.0010	65.2
79		Santa Clara	WCC	-3.1208	0.0009	86.8
80		Washington	P10	-3.1883	0.0007	68.5
81		Dayton	A10	-3.2360	0.0006	80.7
82		Missouri	B12	-3.2643	0.0005	66.7
83		Ohio	MAC	-3.3062	0.0005	86.4
84	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-3.4603	0.0003	94.5
85		Hawaii	WAC	-3.5966	0.0002	90.7
86		Houston	CUSA	-3.6608	0.0001	83.7
87		Utah St.	WAC	-3.7237	0.0001	80.9
88		Kent St.	MAC	-3.8496	0.0001	101.0
89		Iowa	B10	-3.9397	0.0000	84.7
90	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.9591	0.0000	101.5
91		DePaul	BE	-3.9707	0.0000	74.2
92		Vermont	AE	-4.0007	0.0000	106.6
93		Louisiana St.	SEC	-4.2308	0.0000	68.7
94		Colorado St.	MWC	-4.4956	0.0000	96.8
95	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-4.5081	0.0000	106.9
96		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.6328	0.0000	94.3
97		George Washington	A10	-4.6709	0.0000	95.2
98		Albany	AE	-4.6784	0.0000	111.1
99		Saint Joseph's	A10	-5.0242	0.0000	95.1
100		Auburn	SEC	-5.1844	0.0000	88.6
101	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-5.1954	0.0000	122.3
102		Bucknell	Pat	-5.1996	0.0000	116.6
103		Boise St.	WAC	-5.2121	0.0000	107.2
104		Tulsa	CUSA	-5.3934	0.0000	100.6
105		Fordham	A10	-5.4929	0.0000	112.5
106		Wright St.	Horz	-5.5024	0.0000	118.4
107		Long Beach St.	BW	-5.5846	0.0000	116.9
108		Toledo	MAC	-5.5868	0.0000	113.6
109		South Carolina	SEC	-5.6688	0.0000	86.3
110		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-5.6757	0.0000	122.4
111	X	Marist	MAAC	-5.8193	0.0000	125.9
112		New Mexico	MWC	-5.8421	0.0000	99.9
113		Indiana St.	MVC	-5.9325	0.0000	102.2
114		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.9667	0.0000	125.3
115		North Carolina St.	ACC	-6.0420	0.0000	87.5
116		Oakland	MCon	-6.1262	0.0000	121.9
117		South Alabama	SB	-6.1322	0.0000	122.0
118		Austin Peay	OVC	-6.5397	0.0000	138.3
119		George Mason	CAA	-6.6901	0.0000	117.9
120		Wyoming	MWC	-6.7017	0.0000	114.6
121	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-6.8166	0.0000	145.1
122		Belmont	ASun	-6.9120	0.0000	145.1
123		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-7.0293	0.0000	123.5
124		College of Charleston	SC	-7.1075	0.0000	128.1
125		Evansville	MVC	-7.1123	0.0000	105.5
126		Samford	OVC	-7.1451	0.0000	148.1
127		Rhode Island	A10	-7.2725	0.0000	121.5
128		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-7.2776	0.0000	129.0
129		UAB	CUSA	-7.3298	0.0000	121.0
130		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-7.3379	0.0000	133.4
131		North Texas	SB	-7.3615	0.0000	150.9
132		Utah	MWC	-7.3622	0.0000	121.6
133		Seton Hall	BE	-7.8067	0.0000	104.1
134		Miami OH	MAC	-7.9105	0.0000	131.0
135		St. John's	BE	-8.1551	0.0000	116.7
136	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-8.1959	0.0000	151.7
137		North Dakota St.	ind	-8.2474	0.0000	157.3
138		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-8.2536	0.0000	155.3
139		Utah Valley St.	ind	-8.5034	0.0000	157.1
140		Temple	A10	-8.5625	0.0000	137.6
141		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-9.1163	0.0000	143.7
142		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.1250	0.0000	121.8
143		Valparaiso	MCon	-9.1660	0.0000	164.0
144		Western Michigan	MAC	-9.1998	0.0000	153.1
145		Cincinnati	BE	-9.2095	0.0000	125.6
146	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-9.2274	0.0000	164.4
147		Baylor	B12	-9.2611	0.0000	118.5
148		Yale	Ivy	-9.3883	0.0000	157.8
149		Middle Tennessee	SB	-9.5381	0.0000	158.4
150		Drake	MVC	-9.5648	0.0000	125.5
151		Marshall	CUSA	-9.5846	0.0000	153.5
152		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.7549	0.0000	133.7
153		Siena	MAAC	-9.8331	0.0000	163.7
154	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-9.9439	0.0000	173.4
155		Rice	CUSA	-9.9446	0.0000	163.0
156		Southern Utah	MCon	-9.9883	0.0000	168.4
157		Central Connecticut	NEC	-10.0057	0.0000	183.9
158	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-10.0337	0.0000	160.2
159		Weber St.	BSky	-10.1326	0.0000	170.5
160		Duquesne	A10	-10.1570	0.0000	177.0
161		South Florida	BE	-10.2172	0.0000	138.2
162		Towson	CAA	-10.2506	0.0000	146.6
163		Iowa St.	B12	-10.2672	0.0000	132.3
164		Northwestern	B10	-10.3185	0.0000	132.8
165		Sacred Heart	NEC	-10.3453	0.0000	177.5
166		Niagara	MAAC	-10.3663	0.0000	183.6
167		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-10.4118	0.0000	174.4
168		Charlotte	A10	-10.4792	0.0000	145.0
169		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-10.5417	0.0000	175.3
170		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.6812	0.0000	189.6
171		St. Mary's	WCC	-10.6905	0.0000	159.1
172		Minnesota	B10	-10.7513	0.0000	140.9
173		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-10.9638	0.0000	186.0
174		Penn St.	B10	-11.1323	0.0000	136.9
175		Murray St.	OVC	-11.2533	0.0000	195.4
176		San Diego	WCC	-11.3326	0.0000	176.0
177	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-11.3460	0.0000	189.7
178		Miami FL	ACC	-11.3864	0.0000	154.0
179		Manhattan	MAAC	-11.4676	0.0000	201.6
180		Youngstown St.	Horz	-11.5778	0.0000	178.7
181		UC Irvine	BW	-11.5822	0.0000	184.3
182		Cornell	Ivy	-11.6612	0.0000	191.5
183		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-11.7880	0.0000	175.3
184		High Point	BSth	-11.7901	0.0000	195.4
185		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-11.8052	0.0000	193.7
186		Detroit	Horz	-11.8543	0.0000	181.8
187		Furman	SC	-12.0790	0.0000	192.3
188		Lipscomb	ASun	-12.0802	0.0000	192.4
189		Columbia	Ivy	-12.1758	0.0000	193.4
190		San Francisco	WCC	-12.2809	0.0000	178.6
191		NC Greensboro	SC	-12.3574	0.0000	200.9
192		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-12.5198	0.0000	187.0
193		Rider	MAAC	-12.5798	0.0000	200.2
194		Princeton	Ivy	-12.5921	0.0000	196.2
195		Pacific	BW	-12.6482	0.0000	189.6
196	X	Boston University	AE	-12.7220	0.0000	196.0
197		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-12.9613	0.0000	204.8
198		Portland St.	BSky	-13.1258	0.0000	204.7
199		Harvard	Ivy	-13.1274	0.0000	192.5
200		Lehigh	Pat	-13.2470	0.0000	207.9
201		Montana	BSky	-13.2557	0.0000	206.7
202		Arkansas St.	SB	-13.2578	0.0000	215.3
203		Texas Christian	MWC	-13.2632	0.0000	168.2
204		Rutgers	BE	-13.6803	0.0000	166.2
205		Canisius	MAAC	-13.6901	0.0000	212.9
206		Northern Arizona	BSky	-13.7095	0.0000	224.0
207		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.8231	0.0000	223.0
208		Jacksonville	ASun	-13.9032	0.0000	217.1
209		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-13.9812	0.0000	211.7
210		Buffalo	MAC	-14.0715	0.0000	198.4
211		Fairfield	MAAC	-14.1825	0.0000	205.7
212		Cal Poly	BW	-14.1895	0.0000	224.7
213		William & Mary	CAA	-14.3163	0.0000	190.1
214		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-14.4659	0.0000	219.8
215		Maine	AE	-14.5472	0.0000	226.3
216		Hampton	MEAC	-14.6282	0.0000	222.9
217		Tulane	CUSA	-14.7265	0.0000	218.0
218		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-14.7275	0.0000	233.2
219		Florida Atlantic	SB	-14.8240	0.0000	217.7
220		American	Pat	-14.8528	0.0000	214.8
221		New Orleans	SB	-14.8755	0.0000	224.1
222		Eastern Washington	BSky	-14.9224	0.0000	226.3
223		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-15.1580	0.0000	209.2
224		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-15.3783	0.0000	220.1
225		Oregon St.	P10	-15.4745	0.0000	170.2
226		Monmouth	NEC	-15.4955	0.0000	227.8
227		Army	Pat	-15.4985	0.0000	215.0
228		Bowling Green	MAC	-15.6171	0.0000	219.5
229		Brown	Ivy	-15.7024	0.0000	241.9
230		MD Baltimore County	AE	-15.7079	0.0000	233.8
231		Northeastern	CAA	-15.7220	0.0000	206.6
232		Florida A&M	MEAC	-15.7292	0.0000	242.8
233		Lamar	Slnd	-15.8110	0.0000	241.0
234		IUPUI	MCon	-15.8217	0.0000	236.4
235		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-15.8614	0.0000	245.9
236		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.8750	0.0000	250.9
237		Ball St.	MAC	-16.0930	0.0000	231.5
238		Colorado	B12	-16.2582	0.0000	200.6
239		Chattanooga	SC	-16.4432	0.0000	230.0
240		Navy	Pat	-16.4807	0.0000	235.3
241		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-16.6006	0.0000	247.5
242		Troy	SB	-16.8663	0.0000	241.8
243		Mercer	ASun	-17.0349	0.0000	262.5
244		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-17.2852	0.0000	258.5
245		Arizona St.	P10	-17.3576	0.0000	196.5
246		Hartford	AE	-17.4862	0.0000	252.1
247		Montana St.	BSky	-17.5149	0.0000	268.5
248		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-17.6357	0.0000	245.2
249		La Salle	A10	-17.6399	0.0000	234.7
250		Central Michigan	MAC	-17.7763	0.0000	253.1
251		NC Wilmington	CAA	-17.8486	0.0000	231.0
252		Morehead St.	OVC	-17.9539	0.0000	272.0
253		Stony Brook	AE	-18.0648	0.0000	257.5
254		Chicago St.	MCon	-18.0813	0.0000	239.0
255		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.1348	0.0000	272.2
256		Binghamton	AE	-18.1610	0.0000	264.3
257		San Jose St.	WAC	-18.1849	0.0000	228.8
258		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.1890	0.0000	259.4
259		Western Carolina	SC	-18.2155	0.0000	247.9
260		Colgate	Pat	-18.2381	0.0000	256.9
261		Liberty	BSth	-18.3908	0.0000	262.2
262		New Hampshire	AE	-18.5209	0.0000	271.6
263		Florida International	SB	-18.5463	0.0000	266.7
264		Morgan St.	MEAC	-18.6714	0.0000	289.2
265		Georgia St.	CAA	-18.7127	0.0000	234.4
266		Stetson	ASun	-18.7250	0.0000	272.6
267		McNeese St.	Slnd	-18.8744	0.0000	274.5
268		Texas Pan American	ind	-18.9120	0.0000	279.8
269		Campbell	ASun	-19.0293	0.0000	272.9
270		Dartmouth	Ivy	-19.0338	0.0000	267.0
271		Gardner Webb	ASun	-19.0914	0.0000	266.6
272		Georgia Southern	SC	-19.1494	0.0000	264.8
273		Grambling	SWAC	-19.1740	0.0000	289.7
274		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.2253	0.0000	284.2
275		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-19.2598	0.0000	272.8
276		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-19.2800	0.0000	273.6
277		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-19.2884	0.0000	286.7
278		Texas Southern	SWAC	-19.3077	0.0000	278.8
279		Cleveland St.	Horz	-19.3368	0.0000	273.1
280		Wagner	NEC	-19.3541	0.0000	285.6
281		Pepperdine	WCC	-19.4202	0.0000	257.3
282		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.4962	0.0000	277.0
283		Savannah St.	ind	-19.5581	0.0000	275.0
284		Lafayette	Pat	-19.7032	0.0000	269.3
285		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.7095	0.0000	265.2
286		Portland	WCC	-19.8853	0.0000	263.9
287		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.1690	0.0000	274.6
288		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.2531	0.0000	292.4
289		James Madison	CAA	-20.2847	0.0000	277.9
290		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-20.3493	0.0000	292.2
291		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-20.5109	0.0000	289.8
292		UC Davis	ind	-20.8642	0.0000	306.2
293		NC Asheville	BSth	-21.2489	0.0000	294.2
294		Southern	SWAC	-21.3936	0.0000	303.0
295		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.4534	0.0000	311.4
296		Delaware	CAA	-21.4966	0.0000	286.0
297		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.6899	0.0000	294.7
298		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-21.7001	0.0000	308.9
299		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-21.7211	0.0000	322.4
300		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.7443	0.0000	308.2
301		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.7979	0.0000	301.4
302		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-21.8187	0.0000	298.2
303		Howard	MEAC	-21.9073	0.0000	318.9
304		Wofford	SC	-21.9969	0.0000	294.6
305		Centenary	MCon	-22.0478	0.0000	297.3
306		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-22.0657	0.0000	307.4
307		Longwood	ind	-22.0841	0.0000	297.9
308		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.0973	0.0000	306.8
309		South Dakota St.	ind	-22.1071	0.0000	316.4
310		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-22.1981	0.0000	311.5
311		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.2408	0.0000	316.2
312		UC Riverside	BW	-22.2677	0.0000	313.9
313		Richmond	A10	-22.2707	0.0000	280.3
314		Long Island	NEC	-22.2857	0.0000	320.0
315		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.5555	0.0000	315.1
316		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.5850	0.0000	316.4
317		Idaho	WAC	-22.6122	0.0000	281.6
318		The Citadel	SC	-22.6460	0.0000	288.7
319		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.7513	0.0000	313.5
320		East Carolina	CUSA	-22.7737	0.0000	307.4
321		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.8359	0.0000	329.8
322		Radford	BSth	-22.8505	0.0000	316.0
323		Elon	SC	-22.9065	0.0000	299.2
324		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.9567	0.0000	326.3
325		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.3513	0.0000	323.4
326		Denver	SB	-23.5923	0.0000	325.3
327		Iona	MAAC	-23.6947	0.0000	322.3
328		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.7744	0.0000	332.7
329		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.8185	0.0000	311.5
330		St. Francis PA	NEC	-23.9216	0.0000	326.2
331		Charleston Southern	BSth	-24.0472	0.0000	326.9
332		Western Illinois	MCon	-24.0809	0.0000	330.8
333		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-24.1844	0.0000	330.7
334		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.2587	0.0000	333.9
335		North Florida	ASun	-24.5830	0.0000	334.5
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-26.1679	0.0000	335.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com