Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Jan 5, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.8565	1.0000	1.2
2		Duke	ACC	8.6327	1.0000	3.3
3	X	Kansas	B12	8.3772	1.0000	5.6
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	7.7672	1.0000	4.7
5	X	UCLA	P10	7.5449	1.0000	9.7
6	X	Tennessee	SEC	7.1318	1.0000	3.7
7		Marquette	BE	6.9485	1.0000	10.2
8	X	Xavier	A10	6.3931	1.0000	10.1
9	X	West Virginia	BE	6.1559	1.0000	13.8
10		Mississippi	SEC	5.8723	1.0000	12.2
11		Michigan St.	B10	5.6389	1.0000	13.5
12		Texas	B12	5.5373	1.0000	10.3
13		Clemson	ACC	5.0709	1.0000	17.7
14		Indiana	B10	4.9994	1.0000	19.6
15		Texas A&M	B12	4.8053	1.0000	18.6
16		Rhode Island	A10	4.7395	1.0000	20.1
17	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.7274	1.0000	19.1
18		Washington St.	P10	4.7031	1.0000	22.1
19		Pittsburgh	BE	4.5659	1.0000	17.8
20		Ohio St.	B10	4.2949	1.0000	19.9
21	X	Butler	Horz	4.1397	1.0000	31.1
22		Georgetown	BE	4.1049	1.0000	25.3
23		Oklahoma	B12	3.5668	0.9998	23.0
24	X	Drake	MVC	3.3524	0.9996	29.3
25		Arkansas	SEC	3.2859	0.9995	27.5
26		Notre Dame	BE	3.1956	0.9993	30.0
27		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.1499	0.9992	21.5
28		Arizona	P10	3.0519	0.9989	19.5
29		Miami FL	ACC	2.8413	0.9978	28.1
30		Dayton	A10	2.7227	0.9968	28.7
31		St. Mary's	WCC	2.6449	0.9959	37.5
32	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.6021	0.9954	38.4
33		Syracuse	BE	2.4914	0.9936	25.5
34		Duquesne	A10	2.0908	0.9817	39.5
35		New Mexico	MWC	1.9145	0.9722	41.7
36		Florida St.	ACC	1.8335	0.9666	33.9
37		Stanford	P10	1.6471	0.9502	38.8
38		Baylor	B12	1.5046	0.9338	37.0
39		Connecticut	BE	1.4780	0.9303	34.3
40	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.4187	0.9220	33.9
41		Illinois St.	MVC	1.1649	0.8780	47.6
42		California	P10	0.6636	0.7465	41.2
43		Brigham Young	MWC	0.5911	0.7228	51.7
44		Southern California	P10	0.5488	0.7084	46.8
45		Oregon	P10	0.5225	0.6993	43.9
46		Florida	SEC	0.4424	0.6709	48.5
47		Massachusetts	A10	0.3282	0.6286	46.7
48	X	South Alabama	SB	0.1543	0.5613	60.1
49		Kent St.	MAC	0.0926	0.5369	59.9
50		Louisville	BE	0.0444	0.5177	46.9
51		Missouri	B12	-0.0541	0.4784	47.9
52		Minnesota	B10	-0.1164	0.4537	49.3
53		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.7199	0.2358	52.2
54	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-0.7497	0.2267	64.1
55		Utah	MWC	-0.9801	0.1635	57.2
56		UAB	CUSA	-0.9881	0.1616	58.3
57		Arizona St.	P10	-1.0383	0.1496	57.0
58		Valparaiso	Horz	-1.0669	0.1430	65.4
59		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-1.1429	0.1265	68.6
60		Creighton	MVC	-1.1639	0.1222	62.3
61		Niagara	MAAC	-1.2461	0.1064	75.2
62	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-1.3043	0.0961	74.8
63	X	Miami OH	MAC	-1.3722	0.0850	69.0
64	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.8010	0.0359	86.3
65		Providence	BE	-1.8920	0.0292	63.0
66	X	Davidson	SC	-2.1278	0.0167	91.6
67		Saint Joseph's	A10	-2.1683	0.0151	61.1
68		George Mason	CAA	-2.3309	0.0099	85.0
69		Nevada	WAC	-2.5294	0.0057	76.4
70		Houston	CUSA	-2.5426	0.0055	73.3
71		Akron	MAC	-2.6046	0.0046	83.0
72	X	Siena	MAAC	-2.6902	0.0036	89.7
73		Kansas St.	B12	-2.7183	0.0033	65.6
74		Virginia	ACC	-2.8072	0.0025	72.5
75	X	IUPUI	Sum	-2.8341	0.0023	101.3
76		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.9059	0.0018	70.8
77		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-2.9691	0.0015	88.4
78	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-2.9928	0.0014	94.1
79		Boston College	ACC	-3.1159	0.0009	63.8
80		Illinois	B10	-3.1520	0.0008	78.8
81		Western Kentucky	SB	-3.2381	0.0006	92.5
82		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.2747	0.0005	69.3
83		South Florida	BE	-3.3148	0.0005	85.3
84		North Texas	SB	-3.3267	0.0004	94.8
85		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.5446	0.0002	92.0
86		Villanova	BE	-3.5465	0.0002	77.1
87		Ohio	MAC	-3.6144	0.0002	84.4
88		Nebraska	B12	-3.6237	0.0001	89.2
89		Southern Illinois	MVC	-3.6677	0.0001	83.9
90		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-3.6970	0.0001	81.1
91		Texas Tech	B12	-3.7824	0.0001	74.2
92		Alabama	SEC	-3.8533	0.0001	74.3
93		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-3.9006	0.0000	96.6
94		Cleveland St.	Horz	-3.9396	0.0000	91.5
95		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.9406	0.0000	86.5
96		North Carolina St.	ACC	-3.9714	0.0000	83.3
97		Boise St.	WAC	-4.0676	0.0000	106.9
98		Oral Roberts	Sum	-4.1319	0.0000	110.4
99	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-4.4484	0.0000	113.1
100	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.5095	0.0000	107.3
101		Maryland	ACC	-4.7018	0.0000	78.5
102		Oklahoma St.	B12	-4.9124	0.0000	86.3
103	X	Hampton	MEAC	-5.0100	0.0000	113.7
104		South Carolina	SEC	-5.1828	0.0000	91.5
105		Washington	P10	-5.2758	0.0000	88.2
106		Georgia Southern	SC	-5.4719	0.0000	115.2
107		Wright St.	Horz	-5.4904	0.0000	112.9
108		Chattanooga	SC	-5.5002	0.0000	114.3
109		Temple	A10	-5.5028	0.0000	98.8
110		Wichita St.	MVC	-5.7547	0.0000	99.3
111	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.8072	0.0000	112.3
112		Wake Forest	ACC	-5.9169	0.0000	109.3
113		Tulane	CUSA	-6.3233	0.0000	114.4
114		James Madison	CAA	-6.4019	0.0000	133.4
115		Pacific	BW	-6.4105	0.0000	128.2
116		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-6.4747	0.0000	114.0
117		Marist	MAAC	-6.6276	0.0000	119.4
118		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.7151	0.0000	115.3
119	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.8569	0.0000	141.0
120		Purdue	B10	-6.9436	0.0000	122.9
121		Kentucky	SEC	-7.0030	0.0000	109.9
122		Charlotte	A10	-7.0886	0.0000	123.0
123	X	Brown	Ivy	-7.2164	0.0000	133.6
124		Penn St.	B10	-7.2830	0.0000	119.2
125		Long Island	NEC	-7.3403	0.0000	139.9
126		Marshall	CUSA	-7.3751	0.0000	125.0
127		Utah St.	WAC	-7.4504	0.0000	135.2
128		Old Dominion	CAA	-7.4515	0.0000	127.7
129		NC Greensboro	SC	-7.4923	0.0000	141.8
130		St. John's	BE	-7.5573	0.0000	102.6
131		Seton Hall	BE	-7.6535	0.0000	105.5
132		NC Asheville	BSth	-7.7017	0.0000	144.6
133	X	Montana St.	BSky	-7.9510	0.0000	144.8
134		DePaul	BE	-8.2892	0.0000	124.7
135	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-8.3120	0.0000	153.8
136		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.4169	0.0000	133.3
137		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.4431	0.0000	139.3
138		Fresno St.	WAC	-8.4749	0.0000	135.7
139	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.4949	0.0000	149.5
140		St. Louis	A10	-8.5840	0.0000	125.3
141		Portland St.	BSky	-8.5992	0.0000	162.9
142		Appalachian St.	SC	-8.6923	0.0000	158.9
143		Northern Iowa	MVC	-8.8043	0.0000	140.5
144		Troy	SB	-8.8287	0.0000	148.2
145		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-8.8834	0.0000	138.0
146		Georgia	SEC	-8.8967	0.0000	131.5
147		Oakland	Sum	-8.9789	0.0000	162.9
148		Wagner	NEC	-9.0328	0.0000	163.9
149		Northern Arizona	BSky	-9.0583	0.0000	164.6
150		Morgan St.	MEAC	-9.1195	0.0000	163.8
151		Missouri St.	MVC	-9.2151	0.0000	128.7
152		Lafayette	Pat	-9.2411	0.0000	157.0
153		Belmont	ASun	-9.3410	0.0000	174.0
154		Auburn	SEC	-9.5655	0.0000	133.3
155		Cornell	Ivy	-9.6087	0.0000	169.2
156		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-9.6218	0.0000	159.8
157		Santa Clara	WCC	-9.6366	0.0000	146.0
158		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.9224	0.0000	144.7
159		Louisiana St.	SEC	-10.0990	0.0000	134.9
160		Central Michigan	MAC	-10.1959	0.0000	164.1
161		Cincinnati	BE	-10.2748	0.0000	142.3
162		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-10.3420	0.0000	181.4
163		Richmond	A10	-10.4278	0.0000	155.2
164		College of Charleston	SC	-10.5870	0.0000	166.9
165		Yale	Ivy	-10.6498	0.0000	173.3
166		UC Irvine	BW	-10.8072	0.0000	161.2
167		Iowa St.	B12	-10.9670	0.0000	138.7
168		Bradley	MVC	-11.0376	0.0000	146.9
169		Colorado	B12	-11.0421	0.0000	145.9
170		Rider	MAAC	-11.1211	0.0000	177.4
171		American	Pat	-11.1617	0.0000	180.2
172		Delaware	CAA	-11.2498	0.0000	179.4
173		San Diego	WCC	-11.3279	0.0000	152.0
174		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-11.6432	0.0000	177.8
175		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.6892	0.0000	186.3
176		North Dakota St.	Sum	-11.6894	0.0000	184.1
177		New Orleans	SB	-11.7842	0.0000	184.5
178		Western Michigan	MAC	-11.8501	0.0000	187.8
179		Colgate	Pat	-11.8642	0.0000	185.3
180		Northeastern	CAA	-12.0905	0.0000	179.2
181		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-12.1022	0.0000	168.6
182		Michigan	B10	-12.2006	0.0000	160.6
183		Albany	AE	-12.5243	0.0000	205.4
184		William & Mary	CAA	-12.6060	0.0000	194.6
185		Montana	BSky	-12.6376	0.0000	201.6
186		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-12.7588	0.0000	215.7
187		Fordham	A10	-12.7724	0.0000	171.1
188		Tennessee St.	OVC	-12.8273	0.0000	211.7
189	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.8328	0.0000	222.5
190		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.9642	0.0000	200.5
191		NC Wilmington	CAA	-13.0309	0.0000	192.6
192		Toledo	MAC	-13.1261	0.0000	191.0
193		Middle Tennessee	SB	-13.1652	0.0000	193.5
194		Sacred Heart	NEC	-13.1848	0.0000	212.5
195		Wofford	SC	-13.3525	0.0000	199.1
196		Bucknell	Pat	-13.3588	0.0000	203.6
197		Denver	SB	-13.4406	0.0000	210.9
198		Drexel	CAA	-13.4715	0.0000	193.1
199		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-13.5960	0.0000	208.9
200		Columbia	Ivy	-13.6069	0.0000	217.2
201		Gardner Webb	ASun	-13.6322	0.0000	215.6
202		Youngstown St.	Horz	-13.6591	0.0000	186.3
203		East Carolina	CUSA	-13.6787	0.0000	202.2
204		Colorado St.	MWC	-13.8041	0.0000	171.2
205		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.8044	0.0000	190.5
206		Iowa	B10	-14.0784	0.0000	192.9
207		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-14.1832	0.0000	196.4
208		Texas Christian	MWC	-14.1855	0.0000	185.0
209		Jacksonville	ASun	-14.3624	0.0000	223.7
210		Lipscomb	ASun	-14.4850	0.0000	233.1
211		Iona	MAAC	-14.6234	0.0000	213.6
212		Buffalo	MAC	-14.7217	0.0000	203.9
213		Liberty	BSth	-14.8477	0.0000	227.7
214		Wyoming	MWC	-14.8827	0.0000	186.4
215		George Washington	A10	-15.0490	0.0000	201.0
216		Northwestern	B10	-15.2638	0.0000	196.3
217		Bowling Green	MAC	-15.3170	0.0000	213.3
218		Fairfield	MAAC	-15.4456	0.0000	222.2
219		New Hampshire	AE	-15.4523	0.0000	239.8
220		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-15.4578	0.0000	225.2
221		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.4737	0.0000	233.9
222		Weber St.	BSky	-15.5377	0.0000	230.1
223		Hawaii	WAC	-15.5561	0.0000	223.4
224		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-15.5816	0.0000	233.7
225		Murray St.	OVC	-15.6645	0.0000	240.3
226		Rutgers	BE	-15.7025	0.0000	186.7
227		La Salle	A10	-15.7119	0.0000	213.8
228		Harvard	Ivy	-15.7773	0.0000	235.5
229		Utah Valley St.	ind	-15.8712	0.0000	249.9
230		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.9027	0.0000	238.4
231		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.9111	0.0000	245.4
232		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-16.0015	0.0000	245.9
233		Hartford	AE	-16.0328	0.0000	230.2
234		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-16.0598	0.0000	245.5
235		High Point	BSth	-16.1101	0.0000	238.4
236		Vermont	AE	-16.1528	0.0000	243.6
237		Manhattan	MAAC	-16.3082	0.0000	241.2
238		Central Connecticut	NEC	-16.3739	0.0000	247.0
239		San Jose St.	WAC	-16.4337	0.0000	238.0
240		Lehigh	Pat	-16.4384	0.0000	244.2
241		St. Bonaventure	A10	-16.4641	0.0000	215.1
242		Boston University	AE	-16.5078	0.0000	243.2
243		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-16.5824	0.0000	264.5
244		Elon	SC	-16.6165	0.0000	241.0
245		Air Force	MWC	-16.8323	0.0000	214.9
246		Towson	CAA	-16.8586	0.0000	248.9
247		Lamar	Slnd	-17.0056	0.0000	249.8
248		Arkansas St.	SB	-17.0552	0.0000	248.9
249		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-17.0866	0.0000	245.6
250		Oregon St.	P10	-17.1321	0.0000	205.9
251		Army	Pat	-17.1335	0.0000	246.9
252		Navy	Pat	-17.1353	0.0000	255.3
253		Chicago St.	ind	-17.1966	0.0000	238.6
254		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.2846	0.0000	265.3
255		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-17.3830	0.0000	257.9
256		Cal Poly	BW	-17.4088	0.0000	237.8
257		Detroit	Horz	-17.4694	0.0000	239.2
258		St. Peter's	MAAC	-17.5064	0.0000	249.1
259		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-17.7653	0.0000	264.2
260		Hofstra	CAA	-17.8901	0.0000	251.5
261		UC Davis	BW	-17.9217	0.0000	256.9
262		Eastern Washington	BSky	-17.9517	0.0000	259.6
263		Southern Utah	Sum	-18.1381	0.0000	255.9
264		Mercer	ASun	-18.2085	0.0000	281.0
265		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.2862	0.0000	265.1
266		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.3028	0.0000	245.4
267		San Francisco	WCC	-18.3851	0.0000	242.4
268		Loyola MD	MAAC	-18.4369	0.0000	255.8
269		Evansville	MVC	-18.4923	0.0000	228.8
270		Southern	SWAC	-18.5828	0.0000	276.6
271		Centenary	Sum	-18.6427	0.0000	265.8
272		Samford	OVC	-18.7891	0.0000	280.8
273		Princeton	Ivy	-19.0301	0.0000	281.0
274		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-19.0551	0.0000	291.6
275		South Dakota St.	Sum	-19.1424	0.0000	275.9
276		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.1577	0.0000	279.5
277		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.2683	0.0000	266.7
278		Binghamton	AE	-19.2966	0.0000	285.8
279		Portland	WCC	-19.3669	0.0000	258.0
280		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.3781	0.0000	281.6
281		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.4010	0.0000	270.6
282		Rice	CUSA	-19.7008	0.0000	259.9
283		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-19.7510	0.0000	289.9
284		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-19.8560	0.0000	283.2
285		Monmouth	NEC	-20.0468	0.0000	290.4
286		Campbell	ASun	-20.1509	0.0000	298.1
287		Stetson	ASun	-20.1901	0.0000	286.8
288		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.3464	0.0000	286.3
289		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-20.3498	0.0000	266.8
290		Savannah St.	ind	-20.6371	0.0000	298.3
291		Texas St.	Slnd	-20.7307	0.0000	287.7
292		Florida International	SB	-20.8497	0.0000	276.5
293		Florida Atlantic	SB	-20.8578	0.0000	275.0
294		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-20.8754	0.0000	297.5
295		Jackson St.	SWAC	-20.9557	0.0000	296.8
296		Long Beach St.	BW	-21.0227	0.0000	284.6
297		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.0716	0.0000	314.5
298		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.1144	0.0000	298.9
299		Western Illinois	Sum	-21.1670	0.0000	290.6
300		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.1915	0.0000	316.5
301		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-21.2268	0.0000	309.0
302		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-21.6079	0.0000	299.3
303		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-21.6163	0.0000	299.7
304		Dartmouth	Ivy	-21.6378	0.0000	309.3
305		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-21.6545	0.0000	311.0
306		Ball St.	MAC	-21.6617	0.0000	284.9
307		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-21.6974	0.0000	289.1
308		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.7080	0.0000	318.6
309		Western Carolina	SC	-21.7121	0.0000	295.3
310		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.8323	0.0000	306.5
311		Texas Southern	SWAC	-22.0108	0.0000	312.3
312		Idaho St.	BSky	-22.2159	0.0000	307.8
313		UC Riverside	BW	-22.4399	0.0000	287.5
314		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.4842	0.0000	313.3
315		Radford	BSth	-22.5071	0.0000	315.0
316		Idaho	WAC	-22.5111	0.0000	302.0
317		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.5544	0.0000	324.1
318		Canisius	MAAC	-22.7099	0.0000	307.9
319		Stony Brook	AE	-22.7241	0.0000	322.3
320		Northern Illinois	MAC	-22.7550	0.0000	299.0
321		Furman	SC	-22.7592	0.0000	310.5
322		Maine	AE	-22.9696	0.0000	317.1
323		Longwood	ind	-23.0147	0.0000	328.4
324		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-23.0705	0.0000	310.5
325		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.1947	0.0000	314.6
326		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.3337	0.0000	310.0
327		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.5785	0.0000	319.3
328		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.6188	0.0000	335.2
329		Presbyterian	ind	-23.6883	0.0000	326.8
330		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.7242	0.0000	332.5
331		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.8678	0.0000	298.0
332		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.9121	0.0000	336.5
333		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.0533	0.0000	340.8
334		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.0996	0.0000	326.2
335		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.1969	0.0000	332.2
336		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.2675	0.0000	337.8
337		Howard	MEAC	-24.3376	0.0000	326.7
338		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.4964	0.0000	336.5
339		Grambling	SWAC	-24.5994	0.0000	338.1
340		The Citadel	SC	-24.6473	0.0000	322.6
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.1659	0.0000	337.8

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com