Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Feb 5, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	10.0113	1.0000	1.9
2		Duke	ACC	9.6249	1.0000	3.1
3	X	Tennessee	SEC	9.4071	1.0000	2.2
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.5293	1.0000	3.1
5	X	Kansas	B12	8.4082	1.0000	5.1
6	X	UCLA	P10	7.8567	1.0000	6.7
7	X	Drake	MVC	6.4096	1.0000	10.3
8		Georgetown	BE	6.3482	1.0000	9.7
9	X	Xavier	A10	6.2596	1.0000	9.8
10		Michigan St.	B10	5.8512	1.0000	13.6
11		Arizona	P10	5.3962	1.0000	10.1
12	X	Wisconsin	B10	5.1016	1.0000	13.0
13		Indiana	B10	5.0665	1.0000	20.9
14		Stanford	P10	4.9088	1.0000	20.7
15	X	Butler	Horz	4.4403	1.0000	27.2
16		Texas	B12	4.4195	1.0000	12.9
17		St. Mary's	WCC	3.9911	1.0000	28.2
18		Washington St.	P10	3.8677	0.9999	24.1
19		Connecticut	BE	3.8444	0.9999	18.1
20		Clemson	ACC	3.8103	0.9999	26.7
21		Louisville	BE	3.7631	0.9999	16.6
22		Marquette	BE	3.7031	0.9999	23.1
23	X	West Virginia	BE	3.4195	0.9997	27.1
24	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	3.3867	0.9996	27.5
25		Rhode Island	A10	3.2356	0.9994	29.7
26		Arkansas	SEC	3.2119	0.9993	27.8
27		Texas A&M	B12	3.1995	0.9993	24.8
28		Kansas St.	B12	3.1759	0.9993	21.1
29		Southern California	P10	3.1142	0.9991	31.9
30		Oklahoma	B12	3.0226	0.9987	25.6
31		Ohio St.	B10	2.7144	0.9967	30.8
32		Notre Dame	BE	2.7117	0.9967	36.7
33	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.6786	0.9963	35.6
34		Mississippi	SEC	2.6225	0.9956	30.4
35		Pittsburgh	BE	2.2675	0.9883	29.7
36		Baylor	B12	1.7572	0.9606	32.7
37		Florida	SEC	1.7115	0.9565	38.6
38		Brigham Young	MWC	1.6894	0.9544	43.2
39		Dayton	A10	1.6655	0.9521	30.6
40		Vanderbilt	SEC	1.5485	0.9392	27.8
41	X	South Alabama	SB	1.1961	0.8842	46.1
42		Syracuse	BE	1.1773	0.8805	29.5
43		Miami FL	ACC	0.8770	0.8097	39.7
44		George Mason	CAA	0.7418	0.7709	56.4
45	X	Davidson	SC	0.5882	0.7218	58.8
46		Saint Joseph's	A10	0.5220	0.6992	48.2
47		Mississippi St.	SEC	0.4628	0.6783	42.5
48		Illinois St.	MVC	0.4352	0.6683	52.9
49		Purdue	B10	0.4278	0.6656	57.2
50		Kent St.	MAC	0.3462	0.6354	59.0
51		Massachusetts	A10	0.2809	0.6106	47.8
52		North Carolina St.	ACC	0.1351	0.5537	54.4
53		Ohio	MAC	-0.1527	0.4393	58.3
54		Maryland	ACC	-0.3329	0.3696	46.2
55	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.3378	0.3678	62.3
56		California	P10	-0.4648	0.3211	51.5
57		Houston	CUSA	-0.5020	0.3078	54.9
58		Creighton	MVC	-0.5079	0.3058	54.7
59		UAB	CUSA	-0.6284	0.2649	60.7
60		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.7772	0.2185	63.4
61		Texas Tech	B12	-1.0267	0.1523	56.8
62		Oregon	P10	-1.0699	0.1423	56.7
63		Oral Roberts	Sum	-1.1110	0.1333	74.5
64		Southern Illinois	MVC	-1.5040	0.0663	67.8
65	X	Akron	MAC	-1.5151	0.0649	74.4
66	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-1.6293	0.0516	75.0
67		New Mexico	MWC	-1.8719	0.0306	66.9
68		Kentucky	SEC	-1.8940	0.0291	66.0
69		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.9169	0.0276	65.2
70		Missouri	B12	-2.1063	0.0176	64.8
71		Virginia Tech	ACC	-2.2249	0.0130	72.4
72		Seton Hall	BE	-2.4281	0.0076	65.3
73		Boise St.	WAC	-2.6894	0.0036	94.0
74		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.7614	0.0029	88.2
75		Charlotte	A10	-2.7771	0.0027	86.1
76		NC Asheville	BSth	-3.0778	0.0010	97.1
77	X	IUPUI	Sum	-3.2240	0.0006	102.8
78		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.3128	0.0005	77.9
79		Arizona St.	P10	-3.3529	0.0004	81.7
80		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.3921	0.0003	95.2
81		Providence	BE	-3.4152	0.0003	68.5
82	X	Cornell	Ivy	-3.4221	0.0003	98.9
83		Temple	A10	-3.4648	0.0003	74.7
84		Florida St.	ACC	-3.4872	0.0002	70.3
85		Boston College	ACC	-3.6113	0.0002	73.1
86		Miami OH	MAC	-3.6315	0.0001	82.7
87		Duquesne	A10	-3.6351	0.0001	81.1
88	X	Siena	MAAC	-3.7090	0.0001	92.9
89		Wright St.	Horz	-3.7768	0.0001	91.2
90		Utah St.	WAC	-3.8243	0.0001	102.2
91		Cleveland St.	Horz	-4.0844	0.0000	97.9
92		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-4.0848	0.0000	102.5
93		Rider	MAAC	-4.2369	0.0000	111.2
94		South Carolina	SEC	-4.2553	0.0000	75.5
95		Nevada	WAC	-4.3317	0.0000	93.5
96	X	Winthrop	BSth	-4.3423	0.0000	108.6
97	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.3593	0.0000	105.5
98		Utah	MWC	-4.4891	0.0000	85.3
99		Wake Forest	ACC	-4.5292	0.0000	89.8
100		Minnesota	B10	-4.5608	0.0000	87.8
101		Cincinnati	BE	-4.7384	0.0000	96.1
102		Valparaiso	Horz	-5.0781	0.0000	105.7
103		Appalachian St.	SC	-5.0850	0.0000	117.6
104		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-5.1178	0.0000	93.2
105		Nebraska	B12	-5.1971	0.0000	102.3
106		Villanova	BE	-5.2062	0.0000	91.5
107		Northern Iowa	MVC	-5.4180	0.0000	110.8
108		Hampton	MEAC	-5.6335	0.0000	124.5
109		Georgia	SEC	-5.6825	0.0000	98.1
110	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.7646	0.0000	125.2
111		Bradley	MVC	-5.7647	0.0000	103.0
112		Pacific	BW	-6.2194	0.0000	132.0
113		Chattanooga	SC	-6.3140	0.0000	114.3
114		Georgia Southern	SC	-6.3371	0.0000	120.6
115		Niagara	MAAC	-6.3497	0.0000	127.8
116	X	Belmont	ASun	-6.5090	0.0000	142.5
117		Alabama	SEC	-6.6034	0.0000	88.9
118		Marshall	CUSA	-6.6547	0.0000	117.8
119	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-6.7151	0.0000	141.3
120		Tulane	CUSA	-6.7855	0.0000	119.7
121		Illinois	B10	-6.8055	0.0000	102.7
122		Marist	MAAC	-6.8365	0.0000	121.7
123		NC Greensboro	SC	-6.8924	0.0000	132.3
124		Washington	P10	-6.9254	0.0000	106.1
125		North Texas	SB	-6.9837	0.0000	140.0
126	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-7.1500	0.0000	131.3
127		Virginia	ACC	-7.2512	0.0000	100.2
128	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-7.2617	0.0000	131.0
129		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-7.3934	0.0000	142.5
130		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-7.5180	0.0000	128.5
131		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-7.6055	0.0000	134.8
132		Lafayette	Pat	-7.6340	0.0000	139.8
133	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-7.7067	0.0000	148.2
134		Iowa St.	B12	-7.7103	0.0000	115.6
135	X	Northern Arizona	BSky	-7.7802	0.0000	151.9
136		Richmond	A10	-7.8642	0.0000	136.0
137		American	Pat	-7.8654	0.0000	150.0
138		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.8839	0.0000	129.6
139		Old Dominion	CAA	-8.0714	0.0000	133.8
140		San Diego	WCC	-8.0945	0.0000	127.7
141	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.1107	0.0000	154.4
142		Wagner	NEC	-8.4757	0.0000	161.1
143		Portland St.	BSky	-8.5253	0.0000	163.9
144		Penn St.	B10	-8.5272	0.0000	125.4
145		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-8.5529	0.0000	147.6
146		Oklahoma St.	B12	-8.7236	0.0000	119.0
147		St. Louis	A10	-8.7952	0.0000	128.7
148		Middle Tennessee	SB	-8.8266	0.0000	141.9
149		St. John's	BE	-9.2562	0.0000	119.6
150		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.2723	0.0000	173.4
151		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.3283	0.0000	146.3
152		Missouri St.	MVC	-9.3712	0.0000	130.5
153		Western Michigan	MAC	-9.3714	0.0000	166.2
154		Quinnipiac	NEC	-9.5058	0.0000	175.4
155		Brown	Ivy	-9.5588	0.0000	153.3
156		NC Wilmington	CAA	-9.5588	0.0000	159.4
157		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9.5905	0.0000	145.8
158		Iowa	B10	-9.7309	0.0000	146.7
159		William & Mary	CAA	-9.7424	0.0000	163.7
160		Tulsa	CUSA	-9.8108	0.0000	151.1
161		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.9060	0.0000	148.1
162		New Orleans	SB	-10.1929	0.0000	164.5
163		Lamar	Slnd	-10.2561	0.0000	171.7
164		Murray St.	OVC	-10.3285	0.0000	179.9
165		Auburn	SEC	-10.3954	0.0000	136.1
166		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.4504	0.0000	176.5
167		South Florida	BE	-10.5604	0.0000	140.9
168		Oakland	Sum	-10.5957	0.0000	178.7
169		DePaul	BE	-10.7518	0.0000	139.7
170		Jacksonville	ASun	-10.8567	0.0000	185.5
171		Santa Clara	WCC	-10.9052	0.0000	167.8
172		Fresno St.	WAC	-11.2172	0.0000	165.4
173		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-11.3310	0.0000	186.5
174		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.4231	0.0000	174.1
175		Air Force	MWC	-11.4585	0.0000	164.3
176		Wofford	SC	-11.5001	0.0000	179.8
177		Delaware	CAA	-11.6190	0.0000	181.3
178		Colorado	B12	-11.6291	0.0000	158.4
179		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.6303	0.0000	185.2
180		Wichita St.	MVC	-11.6376	0.0000	158.2
181		UC Irvine	BW	-11.6781	0.0000	175.6
182		Montana St.	BSky	-11.6895	0.0000	190.5
183		Colgate	Pat	-11.9437	0.0000	190.1
184		Fordham	A10	-12.0048	0.0000	163.8
185		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-12.2078	0.0000	199.9
186	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.2217	0.0000	215.0
187		James Madison	CAA	-12.2456	0.0000	185.0
188		Vermont	AE	-12.3459	0.0000	201.2
189		Albany	AE	-12.5091	0.0000	204.5
190		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.7552	0.0000	205.1
191		Bucknell	Pat	-12.9543	0.0000	203.3
192		Central Michigan	MAC	-12.9653	0.0000	201.3
193		Yale	Ivy	-13.0228	0.0000	200.3
194		Long Island	NEC	-13.0310	0.0000	199.9
195		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.0702	0.0000	194.9
196		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.1255	0.0000	200.0
197		Lehigh	Pat	-13.3510	0.0000	210.4
198		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-13.4728	0.0000	217.7
199		Texas Christian	MWC	-13.4816	0.0000	182.1
200		Rutgers	BE	-13.5266	0.0000	175.1
201		Northeastern	CAA	-13.5565	0.0000	192.2
202		Binghamton	AE	-13.5689	0.0000	220.4
203		Weber St.	BSky	-13.6343	0.0000	213.3
204		College of Charleston	SC	-13.8417	0.0000	197.8
205		Michigan	B10	-14.1040	0.0000	177.7
206		Montana	BSky	-14.1363	0.0000	217.9
207		Toledo	MAC	-14.1468	0.0000	199.1
208		Hawaii	WAC	-14.2548	0.0000	212.0
209		Iona	MAAC	-14.2711	0.0000	214.4
210		Fairfield	MAAC	-14.3388	0.0000	216.8
211		Liberty	BSth	-14.3436	0.0000	215.3
212		Morehead St.	OVC	-14.3786	0.0000	227.8
213		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.4150	0.0000	214.7
214		North Dakota St.	Sum	-14.7505	0.0000	216.7
215		George Washington	A10	-14.7601	0.0000	192.8
216		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-14.7949	0.0000	222.6
217		Columbia	Ivy	-14.9231	0.0000	227.1
218		Towson	CAA	-14.9655	0.0000	219.2
219		Army	Pat	-15.0300	0.0000	229.7
220		Troy	SB	-15.0836	0.0000	206.9
221		Hartford	AE	-15.1188	0.0000	229.4
222		Denver	SB	-15.1900	0.0000	227.9
223		Northwestern	B10	-15.2593	0.0000	194.8
224		Wyoming	MWC	-15.3147	0.0000	198.3
225		Louisiana St.	SEC	-15.3562	0.0000	181.2
226		Chicago St.	ind	-15.4057	0.0000	227.7
227		Delaware St.	MEAC	-15.4316	0.0000	230.8
228		Gardner Webb	ASun	-15.5684	0.0000	238.4
229		La Salle	A10	-16.0090	0.0000	214.7
230		High Point	BSth	-16.1534	0.0000	238.9
231		Cal Poly	BW	-16.1767	0.0000	226.5
232		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-16.2447	0.0000	231.0
233		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.2533	0.0000	214.8
234		Lipscomb	ASun	-16.3358	0.0000	247.1
235		Western Illinois	Sum	-16.4902	0.0000	240.7
236		Hofstra	CAA	-16.7090	0.0000	239.6
237		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-16.7616	0.0000	240.0
238		Texas St.	Slnd	-16.8009	0.0000	252.1
239		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-16.8848	0.0000	242.9
240		St. Bonaventure	A10	-16.9882	0.0000	223.1
241		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.1033	0.0000	229.7
242		Utah Valley St.	ind	-17.1423	0.0000	261.5
243		Drexel	CAA	-17.1869	0.0000	225.4
244		Florida Atlantic	SB	-17.4201	0.0000	237.4
245		Southern	SWAC	-17.4782	0.0000	265.8
246		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-17.6294	0.0000	243.9
247		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-17.6315	0.0000	260.0
248		Navy	Pat	-17.6324	0.0000	263.0
249		Pepperdine	WCC	-17.6457	0.0000	231.9
250		Arkansas St.	SB	-17.6475	0.0000	255.7
251		Tennessee St.	OVC	-17.7036	0.0000	263.4
252		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-17.8718	0.0000	263.4
253		Centenary	Sum	-17.9389	0.0000	257.3
254		Idaho St.	BSky	-18.1133	0.0000	266.5
255		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.1713	0.0000	254.5
256		Buffalo	MAC	-18.1776	0.0000	234.8
257		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-18.2363	0.0000	275.2
258		Harvard	Ivy	-18.3333	0.0000	265.5
259		Campbell	ASun	-18.4129	0.0000	270.7
260		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-18.6607	0.0000	266.6
261		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-18.7066	0.0000	258.7
262		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.7188	0.0000	294.9
263		Stetson	ASun	-18.8514	0.0000	270.7
264		Elon	SC	-18.8593	0.0000	259.6
265		Florida International	SB	-18.8895	0.0000	244.9
266		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.9115	0.0000	249.4
267		Samford	OVC	-18.9434	0.0000	283.5
268		Princeton	Ivy	-18.9504	0.0000	277.3
269		Oregon St.	P10	-19.2143	0.0000	230.5
270		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.2275	0.0000	274.1
271		Florida A&M	MEAC	-19.2513	0.0000	279.6
272		San Francisco	WCC	-19.2550	0.0000	255.6
273		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.2791	0.0000	282.8
274		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.3536	0.0000	284.5
275		Boston University	AE	-19.3858	0.0000	278.9
276		New Hampshire	AE	-19.4066	0.0000	285.3
277		Evansville	MVC	-19.5121	0.0000	244.8
278		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-19.5896	0.0000	275.1
279		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-19.6310	0.0000	277.4
280		UC Davis	BW	-19.6795	0.0000	276.9
281		Mercer	ASun	-19.7122	0.0000	299.2
282		Colorado St.	MWC	-19.7968	0.0000	239.5
283		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-19.8292	0.0000	284.2
284		Dartmouth	Ivy	-19.8692	0.0000	287.0
285		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-19.8725	0.0000	276.9
286		Manhattan	MAAC	-19.9913	0.0000	282.9
287		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.0203	0.0000	299.8
288		Southern Utah	Sum	-20.2139	0.0000	271.2
289		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.3167	0.0000	294.6
290		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.3422	0.0000	312.0
291		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.3925	0.0000	305.9
292		Savannah St.	ind	-20.4004	0.0000	295.9
293		Detroit	Horz	-20.4079	0.0000	272.4
294		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.4132	0.0000	284.0
295		Jackson St.	SWAC	-20.4277	0.0000	291.4
296		Eastern Washington	BSky	-20.4998	0.0000	288.7
297		Western Carolina	SC	-20.7288	0.0000	277.1
298		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.8955	0.0000	299.0
299		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-21.1498	0.0000	305.3
300		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.2229	0.0000	303.6
301		Rice	CUSA	-21.2600	0.0000	273.4
302		Portland	WCC	-21.4240	0.0000	281.8
303		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-21.4558	0.0000	297.6
304		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-21.5687	0.0000	296.3
305		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.5909	0.0000	309.5
306		Monmouth	NEC	-21.7333	0.0000	303.3
307		Ball St.	MAC	-21.9038	0.0000	284.5
308		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.9038	0.0000	309.5
309		South Dakota St.	Sum	-22.0496	0.0000	304.2
310		Northern Illinois	MAC	-22.1123	0.0000	284.6
311		St. Peter's	MAAC	-22.1580	0.0000	299.3
312		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.1645	0.0000	312.2
313		UC Riverside	BW	-22.2130	0.0000	288.3
314		Radford	BSth	-22.4335	0.0000	314.7
315		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.5782	0.0000	326.1
316		Idaho	WAC	-22.9400	0.0000	306.7
317		Longwood	ind	-23.1590	0.0000	332.6
318		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.1608	0.0000	327.6
319		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.2210	0.0000	311.8
320		Canisius	MAAC	-23.3582	0.0000	317.4
321		Maine	AE	-23.4673	0.0000	326.1
322		Grambling	SWAC	-23.4697	0.0000	330.6
323		Furman	SC	-23.4915	0.0000	312.5
324		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.5007	0.0000	299.4
325		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.5309	0.0000	331.8
326		Long Beach St.	BW	-23.5757	0.0000	313.6
327		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.5967	0.0000	326.5
328		Howard	MEAC	-23.6447	0.0000	325.9
329		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.8395	0.0000	336.4
330		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.8632	0.0000	324.9
331		Stony Brook	AE	-23.9567	0.0000	329.9
332		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.0590	0.0000	338.1
333		Coppin St.	MEAC	-24.1680	0.0000	319.9
334		Charleston Southern	BSth	-24.1835	0.0000	329.0
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.2921	0.0000	341.0
336		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.4424	0.0000	319.1
337		Presbyterian	ind	-24.4793	0.0000	326.4
338		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.6603	0.0000	338.6
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.1588	0.0000	336.8
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.7378	0.0000	329.3
341		North Florida	ASun	-26.0816	0.0000	339.2

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com