Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Mar 4, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.9337	1.0000	2.0
2	X	Tennessee	SEC	8.8225	1.0000	1.2
3	X	UCLA	P10	8.6721	1.0000	5.3
4		Duke	ACC	8.6547	1.0000	4.1
5	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.5515	1.0000	2.8
6		Texas	B12	7.6528	1.0000	5.6
7	X	Xavier	A10	7.5586	1.0000	7.2
8	X	Kansas	B12	7.4553	1.0000	9.3
9		Indiana	B10	6.8733	1.0000	13.6
10		Louisville	BE	6.1613	1.0000	8.7
11		Georgetown	BE	6.1440	1.0000	10.0
12		Stanford	P10	5.7569	1.0000	18.6
13		Connecticut	BE	5.6523	1.0000	12.3
14	X	Butler	Horz	5.5304	1.0000	19.5
15		Washington St.	P10	5.2604	1.0000	19.4
16		Notre Dame	BE	5.1926	1.0000	23.6
17	X	Wisconsin	B10	5.1900	1.0000	11.1
18		Michigan St.	B10	5.0688	1.0000	16.0
19		Clemson	ACC	4.9501	1.0000	19.9
20	X	Drake	MVC	4.8319	1.0000	15.5
21		Marquette	BE	4.7625	1.0000	17.7
22		Vanderbilt	SEC	4.0270	1.0000	12.2
23		Southern California	P10	3.6550	0.9999	32.0
24		Miami FL	ACC	3.2640	0.9995	24.8
25		Kent St.	MAC	3.0894	0.9990	42.3
26		Brigham Young	MWC	3.0780	0.9990	26.8
27	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.0531	0.9989	27.8
28		Pittsburgh	BE	2.7980	0.9974	27.3
29		Oklahoma	B12	2.7786	0.9973	26.9
30		Illinois St.	MVC	2.6139	0.9955	40.4
31		Purdue	B10	2.6103	0.9955	39.6
32	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.4767	0.9934	29.6
33		Baylor	B12	2.4647	0.9931	28.0
34		Mississippi St.	SEC	2.4555	0.9930	29.2
35		Arizona	P10	2.4382	0.9926	24.0
36	X	South Alabama	SB	2.3295	0.9901	37.8
37		St. Mary's	WCC	2.2703	0.9884	35.6
38	X	West Virginia	BE	1.5670	0.9414	36.3
39		Arkansas	SEC	1.5636	0.9410	36.9
40	X	Davidson	SC	1.4599	0.9278	50.0
41	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	1.2614	0.8964	50.2
42		Massachusetts	A10	1.1293	0.8706	46.6
43		Kansas St.	B12	1.0424	0.8514	36.6
44		Dayton	A10	1.0114	0.8441	37.0
45		Texas A&M	B12	0.9893	0.8387	37.2
46		Kentucky	SEC	0.7112	0.7615	46.1
47		Mississippi	SEC	0.4659	0.6794	43.7
48		UAB	CUSA	0.4653	0.6791	53.5
49		Southern Illinois	MVC	0.3093	0.6215	50.6
50		Ohio St.	B10	0.2968	0.6167	48.5
51		Virginia Tech	ACC	0.1469	0.5584	60.5
52		Maryland	ACC	-0.0929	0.4630	47.8
53		Texas Tech	B12	-0.4183	0.3379	46.6
54		New Mexico	MWC	-0.6900	0.2451	56.5
55		Arizona St.	P10	-0.7291	0.2330	63.2
56		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.7387	0.2300	57.6
57		Syracuse	BE	-0.7876	0.2155	43.4
58		Florida	SEC	-0.9252	0.1774	49.2
59		Florida St.	ACC	-0.9603	0.1684	56.9
60		Creighton	MVC	-1.0422	0.1487	57.2
61	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-1.1396	0.1272	70.4
62	X	Akron	MAC	-1.1481	0.1255	71.5
63		Saint Joseph's	A10	-1.3546	0.0878	63.6
64		George Mason	CAA	-1.3933	0.0818	77.7
65		Wright St.	Horz	-1.4945	0.0675	72.0
66		Villanova	BE	-1.5405	0.0617	64.8
67		Oral Roberts	Sum	-1.5460	0.0611	72.8
68		Houston	CUSA	-1.5921	0.0557	62.2
69		Oregon	P10	-1.5949	0.0554	60.4
70		Oklahoma St.	B12	-1.7433	0.0406	63.2
71		Temple	A10	-1.8484	0.0323	67.2
72		Rhode Island	A10	-1.9346	0.0265	60.1
73	X	IUPUI	Sum	-1.9790	0.0239	92.1
74		Boise St.	WAC	-2.0439	0.0205	89.1
75	X	Cornell	Ivy	-2.1804	0.0146	86.5
76	X	Siena	MAAC	-2.4483	0.0072	80.5
77		Cleveland St.	Horz	-2.6713	0.0038	79.5
78		North Carolina St.	ACC	-2.8005	0.0026	74.9
79		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.8060	0.0025	94.5
80		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.8353	0.0023	88.1
81		Cincinnati	BE	-3.0585	0.0011	80.9
82		California	P10	-3.0871	0.0010	70.4
83		San Diego St.	MWC	-3.1605	0.0008	72.4
84		Belmont	ASun	-3.1941	0.0007	105.5
85		Utah St.	WAC	-3.2499	0.0006	100.9
86		Ohio	MAC	-3.2876	0.0005	82.6
87		Seton Hall	BE	-3.2999	0.0005	70.7
88		Nebraska	B12	-3.4996	0.0002	91.2
89	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-3.5793	0.0002	110.9
90		Charlotte	A10	-3.5817	0.0002	90.4
91		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.7939	0.0001	89.8
92	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-4.0541	0.0000	110.6
93		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-4.1632	0.0000	108.7
94		Wake Forest	ACC	-4.1819	0.0000	88.6
95		Valparaiso	Horz	-4.3522	0.0000	103.1
96		Bradley	MVC	-4.5414	0.0000	90.2
97		Nevada	WAC	-4.7368	0.0000	94.6
98		Providence	BE	-4.8560	0.0000	87.0
99		Minnesota	B10	-4.8615	0.0000	90.0
100		Missouri	B12	-4.8898	0.0000	81.8
101	X	Portland St.	BSky	-4.9045	0.0000	127.9
102		Old Dominion	CAA	-4.9564	0.0000	112.4
103	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.9835	0.0000	102.6
104		Richmond	A10	-5.0563	0.0000	112.8
105		Boston College	ACC	-5.0792	0.0000	84.1
106		Miami OH	MAC	-5.1746	0.0000	89.5
107		American	Pat	-5.3036	0.0000	120.9
108	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.5417	0.0000	119.7
109		Washington	P10	-5.5540	0.0000	85.8
110		Wagner	NEC	-5.6420	0.0000	130.7
111	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.7523	0.0000	121.9
112		Duquesne	A10	-5.8226	0.0000	102.0
113		Utah	MWC	-6.0686	0.0000	102.3
114		Virginia	ACC	-6.0842	0.0000	94.6
115		Middle Tennessee	SB	-6.2240	0.0000	119.3
116		Rider	MAAC	-6.2288	0.0000	128.1
117		Niagara	MAAC	-6.2414	0.0000	124.7
118		Marshall	CUSA	-6.5723	0.0000	114.8
119		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.5981	0.0000	123.4
120		Alabama	SEC	-6.6096	0.0000	93.6
121		St. Louis	A10	-6.6558	0.0000	106.2
122		South Carolina	SEC	-6.8386	0.0000	105.1
123		Western Michigan	MAC	-6.9443	0.0000	146.1
124		Pacific	BW	-6.9541	0.0000	141.0
125		North Texas	SB	-6.9917	0.0000	141.9
126	X	Winthrop	BSth	-7.1171	0.0000	136.0
127		Chattanooga	SC	-7.1253	0.0000	118.5
128		San Diego	WCC	-7.2315	0.0000	113.1
129		NC Asheville	BSth	-7.2516	0.0000	144.7
130	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.3014	0.0000	148.3
131		Georgia Southern	SC	-7.3372	0.0000	131.7
132		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.4514	0.0000	140.4
133		Brown	Ivy	-7.4697	0.0000	132.2
134		Missouri St.	MVC	-7.6052	0.0000	108.1
135		Tulsa	CUSA	-7.9163	0.0000	135.4
136		Indiana St.	MVC	-7.9187	0.0000	133.0
137		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.9191	0.0000	124.1
138		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.0238	0.0000	151.7
139		Lamar	Slnd	-8.0555	0.0000	148.7
140		Marist	MAAC	-8.1610	0.0000	133.7
141		Illinois	B10	-8.2087	0.0000	118.6
142		Penn St.	B10	-8.5803	0.0000	128.3
143		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-8.7152	0.0000	123.4
144		Hampton	MEAC	-8.7692	0.0000	157.7
145		Georgia	SEC	-8.8597	0.0000	128.6
146		Loyola MD	MAAC	-8.9303	0.0000	167.3
147		Appalachian St.	SC	-8.9729	0.0000	160.1
148		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9.0424	0.0000	141.1
149		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-9.2282	0.0000	150.5
150		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.2415	0.0000	149.1
151		NC Greensboro	SC	-9.3116	0.0000	152.9
152	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-9.5182	0.0000	151.2
153		Auburn	SEC	-9.6066	0.0000	132.1
154		St. John's	BE	-9.6270	0.0000	128.8
155		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.8128	0.0000	159.7
156		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.8306	0.0000	177.6
157		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-9.8960	0.0000	163.1
158		Iowa St.	B12	-10.1492	0.0000	137.5
159		Oakland	Sum	-10.2124	0.0000	177.1
160		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-10.2704	0.0000	163.6
161		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-10.3808	0.0000	165.3
162		Fairfield	MAAC	-10.4620	0.0000	175.3
163		UC Irvine	BW	-10.4697	0.0000	170.4
164		Fordham	A10	-10.4870	0.0000	156.8
165		La Salle	A10	-10.6026	0.0000	169.0
166		Murray St.	OVC	-10.6274	0.0000	184.4
167		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-10.7574	0.0000	178.1
168		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-10.8132	0.0000	183.2
169		New Orleans	SB	-10.9229	0.0000	170.3
170		Tulane	CUSA	-10.9919	0.0000	157.5
171		Quinnipiac	NEC	-11.0221	0.0000	189.4
172		Colgate	Pat	-11.0652	0.0000	183.5
173		George Washington	A10	-11.0783	0.0000	164.6
174		Lafayette	Pat	-11.1263	0.0000	175.1
175		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.1704	0.0000	187.1
176		DePaul	BE	-11.4751	0.0000	149.6
177		Air Force	MWC	-11.4958	0.0000	166.9
178		William & Mary	CAA	-11.6402	0.0000	180.0
179		Hartford	AE	-11.6453	0.0000	190.9
180		Michigan	B10	-11.7178	0.0000	161.2
181		Louisiana St.	SEC	-11.8458	0.0000	149.6
182		Iowa	B10	-11.8861	0.0000	167.8
183		Central Michigan	MAC	-11.8879	0.0000	183.4
184		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.0342	0.0000	172.6
185		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.0739	0.0000	197.7
186		South Florida	BE	-12.1321	0.0000	154.0
187		Delaware	CAA	-12.1786	0.0000	181.8
188		Navy	Pat	-12.1882	0.0000	202.4
189		Weber St.	BSky	-12.2365	0.0000	202.5
190		Albany	AE	-12.3266	0.0000	202.7
191		Bowling Green	MAC	-12.3304	0.0000	187.5
192		Long Island	NEC	-12.6741	0.0000	198.2
193	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.8830	0.0000	225.0
194		Northeastern	CAA	-12.8901	0.0000	188.2
195		Gardner Webb	ASun	-12.9392	0.0000	212.2
196		Yale	Ivy	-12.9492	0.0000	195.2
197		Colorado	B12	-12.9583	0.0000	161.9
198		Bucknell	Pat	-13.3193	0.0000	205.9
199		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.5519	0.0000	211.7
200		Wichita St.	MVC	-13.5595	0.0000	173.3
201		Iona	MAAC	-13.6154	0.0000	209.5
202		College of Charleston	SC	-13.6649	0.0000	195.5
203		James Madison	CAA	-13.7181	0.0000	200.2
204		Columbia	Ivy	-13.7409	0.0000	209.9
205		Toledo	MAC	-13.7647	0.0000	198.5
206		Lehigh	Pat	-13.8606	0.0000	215.7
207		Santa Clara	WCC	-13.9246	0.0000	193.6
208		North Dakota St.	Sum	-14.0523	0.0000	210.7
209		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.0765	0.0000	221.5
210		Vermont	AE	-14.0946	0.0000	218.0
211		Wyoming	MWC	-14.3786	0.0000	189.8
212	X	Lipscomb	ASun	-14.4103	0.0000	228.1
213		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-14.4441	0.0000	226.3
214		Wofford	SC	-14.4760	0.0000	209.5
215		Army	Pat	-14.8042	0.0000	226.2
216		Cal Poly	BW	-14.8402	0.0000	209.8
217		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-15.0115	0.0000	214.6
218		Binghamton	AE	-15.0168	0.0000	234.9
219		Fresno St.	WAC	-15.1020	0.0000	197.9
220		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.1055	0.0000	229.0
221		Hofstra	CAA	-15.1273	0.0000	218.9
222		San Jose St.	WAC	-15.1331	0.0000	221.8
223		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-15.1903	0.0000	218.0
224		Florida Atlantic	SB	-15.2473	0.0000	210.5
225		Rutgers	BE	-15.2548	0.0000	192.9
226		Morehead St.	OVC	-15.3791	0.0000	241.3
227		Montana	BSky	-15.4643	0.0000	236.1
228		Towson	CAA	-15.5421	0.0000	223.0
229		Montana St.	BSky	-15.8532	0.0000	234.4
230		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.9435	0.0000	234.8
231		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-16.0552	0.0000	237.6
232		Tennessee St.	OVC	-16.0567	0.0000	246.6
233		Chicago St.	ind	-16.0782	0.0000	232.6
234		Southern Utah	Sum	-16.1218	0.0000	224.6
235		High Point	BSth	-16.2042	0.0000	244.7
236		Delaware St.	MEAC	-16.2105	0.0000	241.4
237		Drexel	CAA	-16.2498	0.0000	214.7
238		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-16.4138	0.0000	234.2
239		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.5503	0.0000	246.6
240		Boston University	AE	-16.5716	0.0000	249.3
241		Northwestern	B10	-16.6358	0.0000	201.6
242		Stetson	ASun	-16.6779	0.0000	253.3
243		Hawaii	WAC	-16.6841	0.0000	241.3
244		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-16.7960	0.0000	251.7
245		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.9522	0.0000	224.4
246		Utah Valley St.	ind	-16.9821	0.0000	261.6
247		Pepperdine	WCC	-17.0232	0.0000	224.5
248		Florida International	SB	-17.4674	0.0000	227.0
249		Liberty	BSth	-17.6576	0.0000	259.5
250		Denver	SB	-17.6616	0.0000	255.5
251		Elon	SC	-17.8625	0.0000	249.3
252		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.0020	0.0000	287.1
253		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-18.0970	0.0000	270.4
254		Idaho St.	BSky	-18.1347	0.0000	268.8
255		Florida A&M	MEAC	-18.1426	0.0000	262.3
256		Samford	OVC	-18.1501	0.0000	273.8
257		Texas St.	Slnd	-18.1507	0.0000	261.6
258		Evansville	MVC	-18.3823	0.0000	233.3
259		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-18.5409	0.0000	264.2
260		Troy	SB	-18.6241	0.0000	242.5
261		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.7805	0.0000	272.0
262		Texas Pan American	ind	-18.7956	0.0000	296.5
263		Savannah St.	ind	-18.8023	0.0000	274.2
264		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.8886	0.0000	254.4
265		Western Illinois	Sum	-18.9369	0.0000	260.3
266		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-18.9554	0.0000	255.4
267		Arkansas St.	SB	-19.1327	0.0000	270.7
268		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.1720	0.0000	284.7
269		St. Bonaventure	A10	-19.1736	0.0000	242.3
270		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.1751	0.0000	281.3
271		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-19.1764	0.0000	262.4
272		Manhattan	MAAC	-19.3141	0.0000	281.3
273		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-19.4620	0.0000	286.6
274		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.4727	0.0000	291.6
275		San Francisco	WCC	-19.5503	0.0000	257.6
276		Buffalo	MAC	-19.6122	0.0000	247.1
277		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.6368	0.0000	278.8
278		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-19.8068	0.0000	277.1
279		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-19.8941	0.0000	258.9
280		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.0570	0.0000	280.0
281		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.1559	0.0000	274.3
282		Detroit	Horz	-20.3331	0.0000	268.3
283		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.3433	0.0000	270.4
284		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.5221	0.0000	281.8
285		Harvard	Ivy	-20.5385	0.0000	287.1
286		Western Carolina	SC	-20.6760	0.0000	280.6
287		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-20.6952	0.0000	296.5
288		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-20.7312	0.0000	306.1
289		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.7393	0.0000	299.0
290		New Hampshire	AE	-20.7745	0.0000	300.2
291		Centenary	Sum	-21.1347	0.0000	292.6
292		Ball St.	MAC	-21.2372	0.0000	278.7
293		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-21.2568	0.0000	302.9
294		Oregon St.	P10	-21.2795	0.0000	252.6
295		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-21.3049	0.0000	289.4
296		Furman	SC	-21.3690	0.0000	295.0
297		Monmouth	NEC	-21.3837	0.0000	303.2
298		Dartmouth	Ivy	-21.4161	0.0000	300.8
299		Campbell	ASun	-21.4383	0.0000	311.4
300		UC Davis	BW	-21.4657	0.0000	294.6
301		Radford	BSth	-21.6678	0.0000	311.3
302		UC Riverside	BW	-21.6699	0.0000	281.0
303		Mercer	ASun	-21.6819	0.0000	318.2
304		Southern	SWAC	-21.6843	0.0000	310.7
305		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-21.7520	0.0000	307.2
306		Idaho	WAC	-21.7589	0.0000	295.0
307		Colorado St.	MWC	-21.9673	0.0000	264.7
308		Rice	CUSA	-22.0066	0.0000	286.0
309		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-22.2030	0.0000	318.1
310		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.2449	0.0000	312.5
311		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-22.3860	0.0000	325.5
312		Portland	WCC	-22.6380	0.0000	291.8
313		Princeton	Ivy	-22.6746	0.0000	314.5
314		St. Peter's	MAAC	-22.6749	0.0000	304.5
315		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-22.7095	0.0000	324.9
316		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.7149	0.0000	318.9
317		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.7651	0.0000	305.2
318		St. Francis PA	NEC	-22.7917	0.0000	318.4
319		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.8380	0.0000	314.1
320		Longwood	ind	-22.9096	0.0000	325.2
321		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.9610	0.0000	322.5
322		Long Beach St.	BW	-23.1215	0.0000	312.0
323		Grambling	SWAC	-23.2529	0.0000	331.4
324		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.4781	0.0000	323.8
325		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.5294	0.0000	336.1
326		Canisius	MAAC	-23.6072	0.0000	314.6
327		Maine	AE	-23.7680	0.0000	328.6
328		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.8917	0.0000	338.4
329		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-23.9892	0.0000	338.4
330		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.1230	0.0000	331.6
331		South Dakota St.	Sum	-24.1531	0.0000	320.3
332		Howard	MEAC	-24.1813	0.0000	327.2
333		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.1955	0.0000	305.2
334		Stony Brook	AE	-24.2693	0.0000	330.4
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.5752	0.0000	341.0
336		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.6490	0.0000	335.0
337		Presbyterian	ind	-24.8515	0.0000	331.9
338		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-25.1300	0.0000	324.9
339		North Florida	ASun	-25.6425	0.0000	339.9
340		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.6972	0.0000	337.1
341		The Citadel	SC	-26.0172	0.0000	333.9

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com