Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Dec 4, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.8375	1.0000	1.5
2		Duke	ACC	9.1637	1.0000	2.0
3	X	Kansas	B12	7.2153	1.0000	6.7
4		Texas	B12	6.7484	1.0000	4.8
5	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.7245	1.0000	9.1
6	X	West Virginia	BE	6.6659	1.0000	10.6
7	X	UCLA	P10	6.5767	1.0000	9.6
8	X	Xavier	A10	6.5679	1.0000	8.0
9	X	Tennessee	SEC	5.8770	1.0000	8.1
10		Louisville	BE	5.0961	1.0000	15.9
11		Michigan St.	B10	4.4976	1.0000	18.0
12		Pittsburgh	BE	4.4737	1.0000	18.9
13	X	Gonzaga	WCC	4.3800	1.0000	23.7
14	X	Butler	Horz	4.1329	1.0000	28.3
15	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.0966	1.0000	24.8
16		Marquette	BE	4.0255	1.0000	22.1
17		Clemson	ACC	3.8526	0.9999	22.7
18		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.8325	0.9999	20.3
19		Stanford	P10	3.7668	0.9999	24.1
20		Indiana	B10	3.7088	0.9999	27.5
21		Texas A&M	B12	3.6223	0.9999	24.3
22		Arizona	P10	3.4703	0.9997	18.5
23	X	Brigham Young	MWC	3.1894	0.9993	29.7
24		Southern California	P10	3.0697	0.9989	32.5
25		Arkansas	SEC	2.9946	0.9986	23.4
26		Oregon	P10	2.9002	0.9981	27.3
27		Florida	SEC	2.8527	0.9978	33.4
28		Georgetown	BE	2.7234	0.9968	32.7
29		Washington St.	P10	2.6340	0.9958	31.8
30		Mississippi	SEC	2.4830	0.9935	34.4
31		Florida St.	ACC	2.4469	0.9928	31.2
32		Providence	BE	2.4073	0.9920	30.2
33		Virginia	ACC	2.0769	0.9811	33.2
34		Kentucky	SEC	1.9960	0.9770	34.5
35		Oklahoma	B12	1.8730	0.9695	33.7
36		Notre Dame	BE	1.7659	0.9613	38.5
37		Rhode Island	A10	1.6438	0.9499	37.1
38		Miami FL	ACC	1.4669	0.9288	33.1
39		Baylor	B12	1.3405	0.9100	37.0
40		California	P10	1.3207	0.9067	38.3
41		Illinois	B10	1.1305	0.8709	39.7
42		Villanova	BE	1.0985	0.8640	43.4
43	X	Creighton	MVC	1.0575	0.8549	46.8
44	X	Miami OH	MAC	0.8048	0.7895	48.8
45	X	Holy Cross	Pat	0.6647	0.7469	48.4
46	X	Davidson	SC	0.6017	0.7263	63.0
47	X	George Mason	CAA	0.4995	0.6913	57.3
48		Duquesne	A10	0.4555	0.6756	55.1
49		Connecticut	BE	0.3030	0.6191	42.6
50		Ohio St.	B10	0.1430	0.5569	50.6
51		Boston College	ACC	-0.1142	0.4546	42.9
52		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	-0.1366	0.4457	49.5
53		Missouri	B12	-0.1423	0.4434	53.6
54		Dayton	A10	-0.1738	0.4310	50.0
55		Southern Illinois	MVC	-0.3927	0.3473	54.4
56		Oklahoma St.	B12	-0.9781	0.1640	51.6
57		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.9846	0.1624	55.5
58		St. Mary's	WCC	-1.0829	0.1394	71.2
59		Syracuse	BE	-1.1154	0.1323	50.8
60		New Mexico	MWC	-1.1837	0.1183	64.4
61		Minnesota	B10	-1.3579	0.0872	62.2
62		Massachusetts	A10	-1.4110	0.0791	61.4
63		Houston	CUSA	-1.4914	0.0679	68.1
64		North Carolina St.	ACC	-1.5427	0.0615	64.4
65	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.6504	0.0494	78.3
66		Northern Iowa	MVC	-1.6517	0.0493	73.0
67	X	South Alabama	SB	-1.8010	0.0359	76.2
68	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.0754	0.0190	81.5
69		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.1560	0.0155	68.7
70		Western Kentucky	SB	-2.1715	0.0149	85.9
71		UAB	CUSA	-2.3813	0.0086	73.7
72		Mississippi St.	SEC	-2.4787	0.0066	63.9
73		Maryland	ACC	-2.5901	0.0048	63.8
74		Missouri St.	MVC	-2.6368	0.0042	78.9
75		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-3.1555	0.0008	82.4
76		Kent St.	MAC	-3.1742	0.0008	88.1
77		Drake	MVC	-3.1789	0.0007	84.9
78		North Texas	SB	-3.2544	0.0006	97.6
79		Texas Tech	B12	-3.3596	0.0004	71.6
80	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-3.4430	0.0003	96.8
81		Arizona St.	P10	-3.4781	0.0003	77.9
82		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.6311	0.0001	79.1
83		Nevada	WAC	-3.6551	0.0001	92.7
84		Old Dominion	CAA	-3.6955	0.0001	87.2
85		Temple	A10	-3.7096	0.0001	87.0
86		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-3.8071	0.0001	98.2
87		Kansas St.	B12	-3.8496	0.0001	76.2
88		Valparaiso	Horz	-3.9757	0.0000	94.6
89		Bradley	MVC	-4.0251	0.0000	87.4
90		Louisiana St.	SEC	-4.0803	0.0000	81.5
91		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-4.1051	0.0000	101.8
92	X	Siena	MAAC	-4.2230	0.0000	105.9
93		South Carolina	SEC	-4.2471	0.0000	79.1
94		Saint Joseph's	A10	-4.2507	0.0000	83.0
95		Ohio	MAC	-4.4053	0.0000	95.3
96		Pacific	BW	-5.0292	0.0000	112.6
97		Wichita St.	MVC	-5.0448	0.0000	92.6
98		Seton Hall	BE	-5.0843	0.0000	85.1
99		Purdue	B10	-5.2051	0.0000	99.1
100		Georgia Southern	SC	-5.2672	0.0000	111.6
101		Alabama	SEC	-5.2753	0.0000	88.0
102		Santa Clara	WCC	-5.4488	0.0000	111.2
103		Utah	MWC	-5.7145	0.0000	99.9
104		Belmont	ASun	-5.7850	0.0000	132.0
105	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.7993	0.0000	117.5
106	X	Oral Roberts	Sum	-5.9962	0.0000	127.6
107		Akron	MAC	-6.0072	0.0000	117.4
108		Drexel	CAA	-6.0090	0.0000	112.0
109	X	Portland St.	BSky	-6.0237	0.0000	126.6
110		James Madison	CAA	-6.0688	0.0000	119.9
111		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.1329	0.0000	126.4
112		Hampton	MEAC	-6.1633	0.0000	125.8
113		St. John's	BE	-6.1662	0.0000	94.8
114		Georgia	SEC	-6.1720	0.0000	97.4
115	X	Albany	AE	-6.2157	0.0000	131.6
116		Illinois St.	MVC	-6.2472	0.0000	110.3
117		Montana	BSky	-6.3943	0.0000	127.4
118		Nebraska	B12	-6.5853	0.0000	111.6
119		Washington	P10	-6.8044	0.0000	103.3
120		MD Baltimore County	AE	-6.8285	0.0000	130.5
121		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.8443	0.0000	118.1
122		Auburn	SEC	-6.9187	0.0000	110.9
123		Charlotte	A10	-6.9547	0.0000	115.9
124	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.1170	0.0000	142.4
125		IUPUI	Sum	-7.1359	0.0000	145.8
126		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.2082	0.0000	130.9
127		Wright St.	Horz	-7.2253	0.0000	130.6
128		St. Louis	A10	-7.3071	0.0000	111.4
129		Marist	MAAC	-7.4459	0.0000	133.7
130	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-7.5356	0.0000	151.5
131		Boise St.	WAC	-7.6527	0.0000	140.2
132		Northeastern	CAA	-7.6917	0.0000	124.7
133		George Washington	A10	-7.7548	0.0000	131.0
134	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-7.8137	0.0000	146.0
135		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.8182	0.0000	133.6
136		Wake Forest	ACC	-7.9236	0.0000	121.9
137		Oakland	Sum	-8.0293	0.0000	148.1
138		Marshall	CUSA	-8.3032	0.0000	139.8
139		Colorado St.	MWC	-8.3069	0.0000	125.1
140		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.4465	0.0000	147.9
141		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-8.4613	0.0000	134.8
142		Cleveland St.	Horz	-8.6289	0.0000	144.1
143	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-8.6516	0.0000	155.9
144	X	Brown	Ivy	-8.8079	0.0000	150.1
145		DePaul	BE	-8.9407	0.0000	122.7
146		Michigan	B10	-8.9633	0.0000	125.4
147		College of Charleston	SC	-9.0463	0.0000	153.9
148		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-9.0768	0.0000	153.7
149		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-9.2508	0.0000	161.1
150		Manhattan	MAAC	-9.3432	0.0000	171.5
151		Cal Poly	BW	-9.3466	0.0000	151.3
152		Northern Arizona	BSky	-9.3645	0.0000	167.9
153		San Francisco	WCC	-9.4464	0.0000	146.3
154		Yale	Ivy	-9.6950	0.0000	162.1
155		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-9.8322	0.0000	161.1
156		Colorado	B12	-9.9314	0.0000	135.4
157		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-9.9546	0.0000	162.6
158		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.0497	0.0000	162.4
159		South Florida	BE	-10.1134	0.0000	144.6
160		Wagner	NEC	-10.1486	0.0000	178.3
161		New Orleans	SB	-10.2101	0.0000	173.5
162		Chattanooga	SC	-10.2306	0.0000	161.6
163		Utah St.	WAC	-10.2334	0.0000	173.1
164		San Diego	WCC	-10.2765	0.0000	146.7
165		Iowa St.	B12	-10.2773	0.0000	135.2
166		North Dakota St.	Sum	-10.3142	0.0000	177.5
167		Hofstra	CAA	-10.3323	0.0000	160.8
168		Toledo	MAC	-10.6139	0.0000	163.5
169		NC Asheville	BSth	-10.7839	0.0000	176.7
170		Niagara	MAAC	-10.8317	0.0000	180.0
171		Appalachian St.	SC	-10.9078	0.0000	175.7
172		Air Force	MWC	-11.0667	0.0000	161.4
173		Fresno St.	WAC	-11.0918	0.0000	172.4
174		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-11.0962	0.0000	182.3
175		Tulane	CUSA	-11.0987	0.0000	172.5
176		Detroit	Horz	-11.1645	0.0000	178.4
177		Bucknell	Pat	-11.2889	0.0000	180.4
178		Murray St.	OVC	-11.4639	0.0000	194.2
179		Harvard	Ivy	-11.5814	0.0000	181.6
180		Long Island	NEC	-12.1196	0.0000	193.9
181		Hawaii	WAC	-12.1922	0.0000	191.6
182		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.2180	0.0000	163.5
183		Rutgers	BE	-12.2921	0.0000	159.7
184		Gardner Webb	ASun	-12.3391	0.0000	199.5
185		New Hampshire	AE	-12.4343	0.0000	195.8
186		Utah Valley St.	ind	-12.4677	0.0000	212.4
187		American	Pat	-12.5559	0.0000	194.3
188		Penn St.	B10	-12.5948	0.0000	169.7
189		Lafayette	Pat	-12.6460	0.0000	198.3
190		Cornell	Ivy	-12.6635	0.0000	203.0
191		Tulsa	CUSA	-12.9690	0.0000	192.7
192		Rider	MAAC	-13.0910	0.0000	205.2
193		Fordham	A10	-13.1531	0.0000	175.2
194		Vermont	AE	-13.2198	0.0000	207.3
195		St. Francis NY	NEC	-13.3442	0.0000	214.7
196		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-13.4394	0.0000	192.4
197		Montana St.	BSky	-13.4515	0.0000	207.4
198		Youngstown St.	Horz	-13.5134	0.0000	195.7
199		UC Irvine	BW	-13.5835	0.0000	200.2
200		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.6561	0.0000	211.4
201		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.7555	0.0000	199.5
202		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-13.7709	0.0000	210.9
203		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.7823	0.0000	197.3
204		Wyoming	MWC	-13.7971	0.0000	189.1
205		Richmond	A10	-13.9165	0.0000	197.5
206		Cincinnati	BE	-13.9247	0.0000	170.3
207		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-14.0025	0.0000	211.0
208		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-14.0788	0.0000	214.4
209		Colgate	Pat	-14.0873	0.0000	212.0
210		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-14.1141	0.0000	223.9
211		Delaware St.	MEAC	-14.1357	0.0000	221.7
212		Columbia	Ivy	-14.4037	0.0000	220.4
213		Indiana St.	MVC	-14.4438	0.0000	182.4
214		Central Connecticut	NEC	-14.4601	0.0000	230.6
215		Monmouth	NEC	-14.4649	0.0000	226.0
216		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-14.5267	0.0000	219.4
217		Centenary	Sum	-14.5848	0.0000	224.5
218	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-14.6418	0.0000	239.6
219		Iowa	B10	-14.7181	0.0000	193.2
220		Princeton	Ivy	-14.7600	0.0000	228.1
221		Loyola MD	MAAC	-14.8498	0.0000	221.7
222		Hartford	AE	-14.8689	0.0000	218.5
223		St. Peter's	MAAC	-14.8965	0.0000	225.8
224		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-14.9174	0.0000	216.7
225		Middle Tennessee	SB	-15.0313	0.0000	218.7
226		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.0828	0.0000	232.3
227		Elon	SC	-15.1307	0.0000	223.3
228		Troy	SB	-15.1854	0.0000	218.9
229		William & Mary	CAA	-15.2212	0.0000	215.8
230		Oregon St.	P10	-15.3067	0.0000	194.1
231		High Point	BSth	-15.3299	0.0000	233.3
232		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.3878	0.0000	233.7
233		Fairfield	MAAC	-15.5163	0.0000	232.3
234		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-15.5228	0.0000	233.9
235		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.5948	0.0000	246.0
236		Wofford	SC	-15.6649	0.0000	228.2
237		Buffalo	MAC	-15.8007	0.0000	219.6
238		Boston University	AE	-15.9464	0.0000	235.9
239		Samford	OVC	-15.9894	0.0000	250.9
240		Northwestern	B10	-16.0429	0.0000	203.2
241		Tennessee St.	OVC	-16.0992	0.0000	242.9
242		Sacred Heart	NEC	-16.3454	0.0000	242.9
243		Liberty	BSth	-16.4303	0.0000	239.6
244		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-16.4845	0.0000	249.2
245		Weber St.	BSky	-16.6763	0.0000	244.7
246		Central Michigan	MAC	-16.7185	0.0000	242.1
247		Southern Utah	Sum	-16.8470	0.0000	249.0
248		Arkansas St.	SB	-17.1136	0.0000	251.6
249		NC Greensboro	SC	-17.2547	0.0000	247.5
250		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-17.2730	0.0000	253.5
251		East Carolina	CUSA	-17.5654	0.0000	248.1
252		Portland	WCC	-17.5829	0.0000	243.1
253		Northern Colorado	BSky	-17.5985	0.0000	262.1
254		UC Davis	BW	-17.7398	0.0000	257.6
255		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-17.8494	0.0000	266.2
256		Maine	AE	-17.8887	0.0000	260.7
257		Iona	MAAC	-17.9027	0.0000	262.7
258		Lehigh	Pat	-17.9146	0.0000	261.2
259		Delaware	CAA	-17.9263	0.0000	249.8
260		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.9378	0.0000	268.1
261		Eastern Washington	BSky	-17.9565	0.0000	256.8
262		La Salle	A10	-17.9764	0.0000	236.3
263		Mercer	ASun	-17.9805	0.0000	276.1
264		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-18.0714	0.0000	247.9
265		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-18.1092	0.0000	259.9
266		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-18.1303	0.0000	274.2
267		Lamar	Slnd	-18.1591	0.0000	266.4
268		Texas Southern	SWAC	-18.1969	0.0000	269.4
269		Quinnipiac	NEC	-18.3138	0.0000	272.7
270		Long Beach St.	BW	-18.3926	0.0000	262.2
271		South Dakota St.	Sum	-18.4050	0.0000	274.2
272		St. Bonaventure	A10	-18.5036	0.0000	246.1
273		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.6106	0.0000	274.8
274		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-18.6223	0.0000	269.3
275		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-18.6587	0.0000	267.9
276		Texas St.	Slnd	-18.6723	0.0000	269.6
277		Dartmouth	Ivy	-18.7287	0.0000	276.6
278		Towson	CAA	-18.7985	0.0000	260.8
279		Evansville	MVC	-18.8933	0.0000	234.0
280		Ball St.	MAC	-18.9789	0.0000	264.8
281		Furman	SC	-19.2598	0.0000	273.2
282		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-19.3192	0.0000	276.2
283		Chicago St.	ind	-19.3703	0.0000	281.3
284		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.7915	0.0000	261.3
285		Western Carolina	SC	-19.8087	0.0000	274.5
286		Navy	Pat	-19.8173	0.0000	283.4
287		Stony Brook	AE	-19.8799	0.0000	288.2
288		Southern	SWAC	-19.8851	0.0000	288.1
289		Rice	CUSA	-19.9478	0.0000	269.0
290		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.0758	0.0000	296.6
291		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.0900	0.0000	297.9
292		Jackson St.	SWAC	-20.0908	0.0000	295.6
293		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-20.3075	0.0000	280.1
294		Denver	SB	-20.3149	0.0000	283.2
295		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.4271	0.0000	294.7
296		Idaho St.	BSky	-20.5716	0.0000	294.1
297		Army	Pat	-20.5717	0.0000	290.8
298		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-20.6151	0.0000	288.4
299		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.6256	0.0000	295.4
300		Binghamton	AE	-20.6318	0.0000	302.6
301		Campbell	ASun	-20.6617	0.0000	303.7
302		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.6754	0.0000	278.6
303		Stetson	ASun	-20.9989	0.0000	297.9
304		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.1688	0.0000	305.2
305		Coppin St.	MEAC	-21.1765	0.0000	288.5
306		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-21.2257	0.0000	283.6
307		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-21.4467	0.0000	280.2
308		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.4958	0.0000	319.3
309		UC Riverside	BW	-21.5939	0.0000	284.4
310		Florida Atlantic	SB	-21.7140	0.0000	294.2
311		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.8219	0.0000	303.0
312		Morehead St.	OVC	-21.8243	0.0000	308.4
313		Grambling	SWAC	-21.8351	0.0000	316.6
314		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-21.8431	0.0000	317.2
315		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.8738	0.0000	308.8
316		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.9251	0.0000	312.1
317		Savannah St.	ind	-22.0344	0.0000	314.1
318		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.1571	0.0000	319.8
319		Radford	BSth	-22.3174	0.0000	311.9
320		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-22.3738	0.0000	316.7
321		Howard	MEAC	-22.5943	0.0000	312.5
322		Texas Pan American	ind	-22.8379	0.0000	335.7
323		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.9174	0.0000	332.7
324		Florida International	SB	-22.9263	0.0000	299.9
325		Longwood	ind	-22.9366	0.0000	327.4
326		Canisius	MAAC	-22.9437	0.0000	321.4
327		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.9560	0.0000	325.1
328		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.9604	0.0000	319.1
329		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.3061	0.0000	320.2
330		Idaho	WAC	-23.3558	0.0000	317.9
331		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.3867	0.0000	334.4
332		Western Illinois	Sum	-23.4456	0.0000	319.6
333		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-23.4877	0.0000	332.5
334		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.5599	0.0000	318.2
335		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.6644	0.0000	340.5
336		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.8694	0.0000	332.4
337		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.9529	0.0000	336.0
338		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-24.2010	0.0000	330.8
339		Presbyterian	ind	-24.4258	0.0000	329.7
340		The Citadel	SC	-24.6234	0.0000	321.8
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.2960	0.0000	339.2

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com