Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Mar 3, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Ohio St.	B10	8.8608	1.0000	2.0
2	X	UCLA	P10	8.8039	1.0000	1.0
3	X	North Carolina	ACC	7.1999	1.0000	3.0
4		Southern Illinois	MVC	7.1959	1.0000	9.5
5		Wisconsin	B10	7.1591	1.0000	5.4
6		Pittsburgh	BE	7.1406	1.0000	4.0
7	X	Florida	SEC	6.8959	1.0000	13.3
8	X	Kansas	B12	6.7963	1.0000	13.9
9	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.9851	1.0000	11.1
10		Tennessee	SEC	5.5764	1.0000	11.0
11		Duke	ACC	5.4551	1.0000	6.0
12		Kentucky	SEC	5.4488	1.0000	8.6
13	X	Nevada	WAC	5.4426	1.0000	21.2
14		Maryland	ACC	5.4259	1.0000	8.4
15		Texas A&M	B12	5.2752	1.0000	15.8
16	X	Georgetown	BE	5.0330	1.0000	16.5
17	X	Butler	Horz	4.7157	1.0000	26.6
18	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	4.6158	1.0000	15.4
19		Arizona	P10	4.6152	1.0000	8.1
20	X	Creighton	MVC	4.4242	1.0000	27.1
21		Washington St.	P10	4.3212	1.0000	28.0
22		Texas	B12	3.9764	1.0000	32.3
23		Brigham Young	MWC	3.8843	0.9999	24.8
24		Boston College	ACC	3.7720	0.9999	21.9
25		Virginia Tech	ACC	3.5723	0.9998	23.6
26		Louisville	BE	3.5439	0.9998	24.9
27		Marquette	BE	3.1801	0.9993	18.5
28		Villanova	BE	3.1395	0.9992	18.5
29	X	Xavier	A10	3.0869	0.9990	36.0
30		Virginia	ACC	3.0273	0.9988	40.2
31		Air Force	MWC	2.8226	0.9976	29.9
32		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.7921	0.9974	33.0
33		Michigan St.	B10	2.7087	0.9966	20.1
34		Oregon	P10	2.3010	0.9893	27.6
35		Georgia Tech	ACC	2.2200	0.9868	37.5
36		Notre Dame	BE	2.1037	0.9823	49.5
37		Old Dominion	CAA	2.0686	0.9807	39.7
38		Clemson	ACC	1.8954	0.9710	41.7
39		Syracuse	BE	1.5418	0.9384	35.1
40		Indiana	B10	1.4910	0.9320	36.3
41		Missouri St.	MVC	1.3244	0.9073	39.5
42		Illinois	B10	1.1845	0.8819	30.4
43		Southern California	P10	0.8228	0.7947	51.0
44		Massachusetts	A10	0.7820	0.7829	61.5
45		Appalachian St.	SC	0.7062	0.7600	70.2
46		Purdue	B10	0.6286	0.7352	47.5
47	X	Winthrop	BSth	0.5645	0.7138	76.2
48		Drexel	CAA	0.4637	0.6786	51.7
49	X	Davidson	SC	0.3767	0.6468	57.1
50	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.2730	0.6076	55.2
51		Alabama	SEC	0.0610	0.5243	43.1
52		Oklahoma St.	B12	0.0399	0.5159	49.9
53		Arkansas	SEC	-0.1119	0.4555	42.8
54		Stanford	P10	-0.1275	0.4493	51.8
55		Texas Tech	B12	-0.1504	0.4402	39.8
56		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.3434	0.3656	56.0
57	X	Gonzaga	WCC	-0.5188	0.3020	62.7
58		Michigan	B10	-0.5283	0.2986	47.3
59		Providence	BE	-0.6208	0.2674	54.1
60		Georgia	SEC	-0.6783	0.2488	56.4
61		Bradley	MVC	-0.9259	0.1772	45.1
62		West Virginia	BE	-0.9795	0.1637	59.6
63	X	Vermont	AE	-0.9918	0.1607	79.9
64		Fresno St.	WAC	-1.0793	0.1402	68.3
65		Kansas St.	B12	-1.0837	0.1392	65.8
66		Florida St.	ACC	-1.1525	0.1246	45.2
67	X	Akron	MAC	-1.2947	0.0977	78.2
68		DePaul	BE	-1.5865	0.0563	61.1
69		Mississippi St.	SEC	-1.7779	0.0377	61.2
70		Mississippi	SEC	-1.8732	0.0305	63.6
71	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-1.8847	0.0297	73.8
72		Iowa	B10	-1.9239	0.0272	74.8
73		New Mexico St.	WAC	-1.9243	0.0272	80.2
74		Hofstra	CAA	-1.9359	0.0264	84.4
75		Missouri	B12	-2.3315	0.0099	64.5
76		Dayton	A10	-2.3996	0.0082	69.8
77	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-2.4560	0.0070	87.8
78		St. Louis	A10	-2.4609	0.0069	84.8
79		Washington	P10	-2.5752	0.0050	66.9
80		Bucknell	Pat	-2.5948	0.0047	92.6
81		Utah St.	WAC	-2.7546	0.0029	72.7
82		Auburn	SEC	-2.7942	0.0026	75.0
83		Northern Iowa	MVC	-3.0523	0.0011	83.5
84	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-3.1540	0.0008	93.8
85		Hawaii	WAC	-3.2457	0.0006	88.2
86		Kent St.	MAC	-3.3769	0.0004	93.3
87		Wright St.	Horz	-3.3888	0.0004	98.3
88		Santa Clara	WCC	-3.4957	0.0002	95.4
89	X	Marist	MAAC	-3.9012	0.0000	108.0
90		Houston	CUSA	-4.1354	0.0000	95.3
91	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-4.1918	0.0000	105.4
92		Saint Joseph's	A10	-4.2846	0.0000	94.3
93		Nebraska	B12	-4.3605	0.0000	95.7
94		Albany	AE	-4.3949	0.0000	110.6
95	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-4.4524	0.0000	101.9
96		Fordham	A10	-4.4549	0.0000	101.4
97	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-4.6616	0.0000	109.9
98		Louisiana St.	SEC	-4.7159	0.0000	69.7
99		Toledo	MAC	-4.7195	0.0000	104.1
100	X	Belmont	ASun	-4.7841	0.0000	125.8
101		George Washington	A10	-4.9244	0.0000	89.7
102		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.0090	0.0000	116.3
103		Tulsa	CUSA	-5.1648	0.0000	99.8
104		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-5.1707	0.0000	126.3
105		Connecticut	BE	-5.1807	0.0000	78.8
106		California	P10	-5.2054	0.0000	77.5
107		Oklahoma	B12	-5.3888	0.0000	81.3
108		Ohio	MAC	-5.4134	0.0000	107.0
109		South Carolina	SEC	-5.6650	0.0000	87.4
110		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-5.7968	0.0000	119.9
111		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-5.8234	0.0000	101.9
112		Austin Peay	OVC	-5.8321	0.0000	131.8
113		College of Charleston	SC	-5.8360	0.0000	113.3
114		Wichita St.	MVC	-5.8406	0.0000	96.1
115		North Carolina St.	ACC	-5.9355	0.0000	88.0
116		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.1068	0.0000	123.9
117		Utah	MWC	-6.2011	0.0000	117.8
118		Rhode Island	A10	-6.2585	0.0000	118.4
119		South Alabama	SB	-6.5059	0.0000	130.4
120		Wake Forest	ACC	-6.6280	0.0000	110.2
121		Boise St.	WAC	-6.6634	0.0000	121.4
122	X	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-6.7070	0.0000	141.0
123		Miami OH	MAC	-6.7704	0.0000	116.1
124		St. John's	BE	-6.7818	0.0000	108.5
125		Niagara	MAAC	-6.8096	0.0000	145.9
126		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-6.9889	0.0000	142.2
127		Colorado St.	MWC	-7.0762	0.0000	115.0
128		Wyoming	MWC	-7.1663	0.0000	122.9
129	X	Central Connecticut	NEC	-7.2206	0.0000	151.9
130		Oakland	MCon	-7.4306	0.0000	139.7
131		Drake	MVC	-7.4874	0.0000	107.2
132		Siena	MAAC	-7.6235	0.0000	140.4
133		Utah Valley St.	ind	-7.6406	0.0000	149.0
134	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-7.7440	0.0000	147.0
135		UAB	CUSA	-8.0478	0.0000	128.2
136		Iowa St.	B12	-8.1143	0.0000	115.1
137		Cal Poly	BW	-8.1824	0.0000	154.1
138		Yale	Ivy	-8.2227	0.0000	146.0
139		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.2942	0.0000	145.4
140		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-8.3591	0.0000	153.7
141		North Texas	SB	-8.3915	0.0000	163.4
142		Seton Hall	BE	-8.7777	0.0000	128.5
143		George Mason	CAA	-8.8605	0.0000	130.9
144		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-9.0210	0.0000	162.7
145		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.1625	0.0000	169.5
146		Loyola MD	MAAC	-9.2103	0.0000	174.5
147		Northern Arizona	BSky	-9.2126	0.0000	171.9
148		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.2168	0.0000	129.1
149		St. Mary's	WCC	-9.3503	0.0000	145.4
150		Valparaiso	MCon	-9.4366	0.0000	164.5
151		Cincinnati	BE	-9.5401	0.0000	135.2
152		New Mexico	MWC	-9.7230	0.0000	132.8
153		Baylor	B12	-9.7537	0.0000	121.5
154		Tulane	CUSA	-9.9898	0.0000	162.1
155		Illinois St.	MVC	-10.0838	0.0000	135.6
156		Miami FL	ACC	-10.1272	0.0000	151.6
157		North Dakota St.	ind	-10.2255	0.0000	182.6
158	X	Weber St.	BSky	-10.2890	0.0000	174.7
159		Florida Atlantic	SB	-10.4298	0.0000	168.9
160		Charlotte	A10	-10.4361	0.0000	136.7
161		Marshall	CUSA	-10.5907	0.0000	166.6
162		Cornell	Ivy	-10.6355	0.0000	174.5
163		Rice	CUSA	-10.6793	0.0000	165.2
164		Evansville	MVC	-10.6870	0.0000	132.1
165		Murray St.	OVC	-10.7080	0.0000	186.8
166		Samford	OVC	-10.7648	0.0000	182.1
167		Middle Tennessee	SB	-10.9847	0.0000	170.0
168		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-11.0998	0.0000	159.6
169		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.1538	0.0000	155.8
170		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-11.2893	0.0000	162.9
171		Youngstown St.	Horz	-11.4118	0.0000	172.0
172		San Francisco	WCC	-11.4287	0.0000	169.5
173		Temple	A10	-11.4709	0.0000	157.5
174		Towson	CAA	-11.6273	0.0000	153.5
175		Penn St.	B10	-11.7351	0.0000	143.3
176		High Point	BSth	-11.8279	0.0000	197.7
177		Northwestern	B10	-11.8689	0.0000	138.3
178		Arkansas St.	SB	-12.0403	0.0000	199.4
179		UC Irvine	BW	-12.0546	0.0000	186.5
180		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-12.0734	0.0000	176.6
181		San Diego	WCC	-12.1150	0.0000	180.2
182		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-12.2592	0.0000	199.5
183		Portland St.	BSky	-12.3292	0.0000	195.3
184		Columbia	Ivy	-12.4187	0.0000	193.7
185		Robert Morris	NEC	-12.4761	0.0000	201.8
186		Minnesota	B10	-12.4819	0.0000	148.5
187		Rider	MAAC	-12.5181	0.0000	204.0
188		Montana	BSky	-12.5183	0.0000	206.5
189		Lipscomb	ASun	-12.6502	0.0000	196.2
190		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-12.8043	0.0000	188.9
191		Fairfield	MAAC	-12.8083	0.0000	191.6
192		American	Pat	-12.8482	0.0000	186.2
193		NC Greensboro	SC	-12.8934	0.0000	209.0
194		South Florida	BE	-12.9511	0.0000	163.7
195		Jacksonville	ASun	-13.0732	0.0000	210.9
196		Northeastern	CAA	-13.0962	0.0000	178.5
197		William & Mary	CAA	-13.1151	0.0000	180.3
198		Harvard	Ivy	-13.2672	0.0000	192.1
199		Furman	SC	-13.3854	0.0000	199.3
200		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-13.4384	0.0000	190.7
201		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-13.6315	0.0000	184.4
202		Southern Utah	MCon	-13.6597	0.0000	214.0
203		Florida A&M	MEAC	-13.7283	0.0000	220.8
204		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-13.7745	0.0000	211.8
205		Boston University	AE	-13.7852	0.0000	199.1
206		Eastern Washington	BSky	-13.8275	0.0000	211.0
207		Manhattan	MAAC	-13.8622	0.0000	227.4
208		Pacific	BW	-14.0030	0.0000	204.0
209		IUPUI	MCon	-14.0237	0.0000	212.2
210		Jackson St.	SWAC	-14.0376	0.0000	216.3
211		Duquesne	A10	-14.0555	0.0000	216.1
212		New Orleans	SB	-14.1463	0.0000	209.7
213		Lamar	Slnd	-14.2109	0.0000	224.3
214		Idaho St.	BSky	-14.3735	0.0000	206.7
215		Detroit	Horz	-14.4760	0.0000	195.7
216		Quinnipiac	NEC	-14.9009	0.0000	236.6
217		Rutgers	BE	-14.9161	0.0000	185.3
218	X	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-14.9369	0.0000	230.8
219		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-14.9452	0.0000	234.2
220		Hampton	MEAC	-15.0878	0.0000	229.6
221		Brown	Ivy	-15.1728	0.0000	237.1
222		Oregon St.	P10	-15.2232	0.0000	158.1
223		Chattanooga	SC	-15.2878	0.0000	213.5
224		MD Baltimore County	AE	-15.3070	0.0000	220.4
225		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.3651	0.0000	219.2
226		Troy	SB	-15.5199	0.0000	224.1
227		Arizona St.	P10	-15.6709	0.0000	178.6
228		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-15.7390	0.0000	242.1
229		Central Michigan	MAC	-15.7691	0.0000	233.8
230		Colorado	B12	-15.8674	0.0000	204.0
231		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-15.8711	0.0000	240.3
232		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-15.8737	0.0000	239.1
233		Hartford	AE	-15.9927	0.0000	233.6
234		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-16.0589	0.0000	232.2
235		Buffalo	MAC	-16.3504	0.0000	225.9
236		McNeese St.	Slnd	-16.5963	0.0000	250.3
237		Navy	Pat	-16.6798	0.0000	226.9
238		Lehigh	Pat	-16.8479	0.0000	236.8
239		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-17.0057	0.0000	250.5
240		San Jose St.	WAC	-17.0208	0.0000	221.0
241		Army	Pat	-17.0922	0.0000	224.0
242		Florida International	SB	-17.0994	0.0000	250.4
243		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-17.1664	0.0000	227.8
244		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-17.4008	0.0000	254.8
245		Canisius	MAAC	-17.4371	0.0000	254.1
246		Binghamton	AE	-17.5851	0.0000	253.0
247		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-17.5863	0.0000	262.3
248		Bowling Green	MAC	-17.6073	0.0000	242.3
249		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.6603	0.0000	245.6
250		Ball St.	MAC	-17.8360	0.0000	242.0
251		Maine	AE	-17.8650	0.0000	267.6
252		Georgia Southern	SC	-17.9500	0.0000	249.2
253		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-18.0880	0.0000	270.0
254		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-18.1039	0.0000	263.8
255		Campbell	ASun	-18.1721	0.0000	264.9
256		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.1818	0.0000	263.5
257		Monmouth	NEC	-18.2988	0.0000	255.9
258		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.3482	0.0000	260.9
259		Georgia St.	CAA	-18.4983	0.0000	218.3
260		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.6232	0.0000	277.0
261		Chicago St.	MCon	-18.6482	0.0000	245.3
262		Mercer	ASun	-18.6738	0.0000	276.0
263		Coppin St.	MEAC	-18.6998	0.0000	259.2
264		Princeton	Ivy	-18.7325	0.0000	262.0
265		Montana St.	BSky	-18.8330	0.0000	280.2
266		Richmond	A10	-18.9059	0.0000	246.9
267		Grambling	SWAC	-18.9387	0.0000	286.4
268		Liberty	BSth	-18.9662	0.0000	280.8
269		Gardner Webb	ASun	-18.9784	0.0000	265.5
270		New Hampshire	AE	-19.0632	0.0000	273.1
271		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.0738	0.0000	275.0
272		Colgate	Pat	-19.2464	0.0000	260.4
273		La Salle	A10	-19.2641	0.0000	243.4
274		Savannah St.	ind	-19.2768	0.0000	278.2
275		Portland	WCC	-19.3447	0.0000	255.9
276		NC Asheville	BSth	-19.3608	0.0000	271.4
277		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.5334	0.0000	289.2
278		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-19.5676	0.0000	295.1
279		Southern	SWAC	-19.7756	0.0000	288.9
280		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.8220	0.0000	289.5
281		Pepperdine	WCC	-19.8941	0.0000	268.8
282		Stetson	ASun	-19.9685	0.0000	282.0
283		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.1162	0.0000	286.4
284		Western Carolina	SC	-20.2540	0.0000	260.3
285		Morgan St.	MEAC	-20.3223	0.0000	306.9
286		Cleveland St.	Horz	-20.3685	0.0000	271.6
287		Centenary	MCon	-20.3872	0.0000	278.8
288		NC Wilmington	CAA	-20.3973	0.0000	253.2
289		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.3974	0.0000	293.7
290		St. Francis NY	NEC	-20.4923	0.0000	284.1
291		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.5101	0.0000	295.1
292		Wagner	NEC	-20.5900	0.0000	297.6
293		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.6753	0.0000	273.9
294		Sacramento St.	BSky	-20.7888	0.0000	299.0
295		Stony Brook	AE	-20.8377	0.0000	283.0
296		Texas Southern	SWAC	-20.8618	0.0000	292.5
297		UC Davis	ind	-21.0616	0.0000	308.3
298		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.1287	0.0000	303.0
299		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-21.4069	0.0000	304.3
300		Long Island	NEC	-21.4444	0.0000	312.0
301		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-21.4683	0.0000	321.9
302		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-21.4930	0.0000	310.0
303		James Madison	CAA	-21.5479	0.0000	291.4
304		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.6002	0.0000	291.5
305		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-21.8564	0.0000	314.8
306		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-22.0991	0.0000	296.6
307		Alabama St.	SWAC	-22.1248	0.0000	311.0
308		Lafayette	Pat	-22.5657	0.0000	287.2
309		UC Riverside	BW	-22.6261	0.0000	314.1
310		Howard	MEAC	-22.6420	0.0000	324.1
311		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.7908	0.0000	321.1
312		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-22.8017	0.0000	323.0
313		Longwood	ind	-22.8489	0.0000	306.1
314		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.8637	0.0000	316.6
315		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.9006	0.0000	331.0
316		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-23.0091	0.0000	319.0
317		Delaware	CAA	-23.0771	0.0000	299.9
318		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.0828	0.0000	327.2
319		Wofford	SC	-23.1470	0.0000	302.0
320		Elon	SC	-23.2265	0.0000	300.8
321		St. Francis PA	NEC	-23.2421	0.0000	320.0
322		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-23.3548	0.0000	316.4
323		East Carolina	CUSA	-23.4609	0.0000	313.1
324		Western Illinois	MCon	-23.6406	0.0000	325.7
325		Radford	BSth	-23.6662	0.0000	318.0
326		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.8794	0.0000	329.0
327		St. Peter's	MAAC	-24.1159	0.0000	330.0
328		Idaho	WAC	-24.3332	0.0000	304.7
329		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-24.3886	0.0000	333.0
330		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.4683	0.0000	336.0
331		Denver	SB	-24.4766	0.0000	332.0
332		North Florida	ASun	-24.4940	0.0000	334.0
333		Iona	MAAC	-24.5251	0.0000	325.2
334		The Citadel	SC	-24.5718	0.0000	308.7
335		Charleston Southern	BSth	-24.9475	0.0000	327.8
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-26.0793	0.0000	335.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com