Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Feb 3, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Florida	SEC	8.8723	1.0000	6.7
2	X	UCLA	P10	8.6363	1.0000	1.5
3	X	North Carolina	ACC	8.1302	1.0000	2.1
4	X	Ohio St.	B10	7.5391	1.0000	6.2
5		Wisconsin	B10	7.5015	1.0000	6.6
6	X	Pittsburgh	BE	7.4030	1.0000	4.2
7		Kentucky	SEC	6.8161	1.0000	6.4
8	X	Texas A&M	B12	6.4232	1.0000	10.9
9		Duke	ACC	5.7238	1.0000	4.8
10	X	Butler	Horz	5.4226	1.0000	21.0
11		Air Force	MWC	5.3795	1.0000	18.1
12		Arizona	P10	5.3357	1.0000	9.2
13	X	Memphis	CUSA	5.2270	1.0000	12.1
14	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	5.1887	1.0000	16.1
15		Kansas	B12	4.8528	1.0000	19.6
16		Marquette	BE	4.6259	1.0000	12.0
17	X	Nevada	WAC	4.5858	1.0000	27.0
18		Southern Illinois	MVC	4.2813	1.0000	18.5
19		Creighton	MVC	3.7479	0.9999	28.6
20		Washington St.	P10	3.7401	0.9999	32.4
21		Oregon	P10	3.6553	0.9999	23.0
22		Clemson	ACC	3.5996	0.9998	24.7
23		Georgetown	BE	3.5856	0.9998	25.7
24		Indiana	B10	3.5734	0.9998	25.4
25		Boston College	ACC	3.2419	0.9994	27.4
26		Villanova	BE	3.1667	0.9992	17.6
27		Tennessee	SEC	3.0976	0.9990	19.1
28		Notre Dame	BE	2.9378	0.9983	44.8
29		Oklahoma St.	B12	2.8183	0.9976	29.2
30		Brigham Young	MWC	2.6982	0.9965	34.7
31		Maryland	ACC	2.4525	0.9929	20.6
32	X	Missouri St.	MVC	2.4232	0.9923	26.4
33		Stanford	P10	2.2354	0.9873	36.8
34		Virginia Tech	ACC	2.1491	0.9842	36.8
35		Michigan St.	B10	1.9956	0.9770	26.1
36	X	Xavier	A10	1.9069	0.9717	46.4
37		West Virginia	BE	1.6912	0.9546	37.8
38		Alabama	SEC	1.6438	0.9499	32.9
39		Vanderbilt	SEC	1.4434	0.9255	46.2
40		Virginia	ACC	1.4070	0.9203	44.4
41		Purdue	B10	1.3875	0.9173	44.8
42		Southern California	P10	1.2463	0.8937	43.8
43		Florida St.	ACC	1.2350	0.8916	33.8
44		Georgia Tech	ACC	1.1917	0.8833	43.8
45	X	Gonzaga	WCC	1.1612	0.8772	50.2
46		Georgia	SEC	1.1201	0.8687	43.9
47	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	1.1186	0.8683	50.8
48		Texas	B12	0.8950	0.8146	50.8
49		Louisville	BE	0.8691	0.8076	46.9
50		Illinois	B10	0.5442	0.7069	38.7
51		Arkansas	SEC	0.5059	0.6936	38.6
52		Texas Tech	B12	0.3410	0.6334	40.6
53		Kansas St.	B12	0.1468	0.5583	54.8
54		Providence	BE	-0.0009	0.4997	47.0
55		Old Dominion	CAA	-0.7635	0.2226	61.0
56		Syracuse	BE	-0.7794	0.2179	48.7
57		New Mexico St.	WAC	-0.8058	0.2102	71.8
58		Northern Iowa	MVC	-0.9977	0.1592	65.8
59		Oklahoma	B12	-1.0340	0.1506	52.8
60		Appalachian St.	SC	-1.2156	0.1121	85.3
61		Massachusetts	A10	-1.2781	0.1006	72.3
62		St. Louis	A10	-1.3146	0.0943	75.5
63	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.3155	0.0942	85.1
64		Hofstra	CAA	-1.3489	0.0887	83.4
65		Wichita St.	MVC	-1.3790	0.0839	65.0
66		Drexel	CAA	-1.3804	0.0837	63.5
67	X	Davidson	SC	-1.3847	0.0831	75.5
68	X	Akron	MAC	-1.3891	0.0824	77.5
69		Bradley	MVC	-1.5515	0.0604	51.0
70		Michigan	B10	-1.6815	0.0463	56.2
71		Mississippi St.	SEC	-2.1330	0.0165	66.1
72	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-2.3812	0.0086	85.7
73		Mississippi	SEC	-2.5962	0.0047	68.2
74	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-2.6080	0.0046	79.4
75		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.6751	0.0037	71.9
76		Dayton	A10	-2.8815	0.0020	78.2
77		Washington	P10	-3.0476	0.0012	66.4
78		Santa Clara	WCC	-3.1266	0.0009	86.5
79		Connecticut	BE	-3.1739	0.0008	64.7
80		California	P10	-3.2190	0.0006	66.5
81	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-3.4359	0.0003	94.0
82		Hawaii	WAC	-3.4501	0.0003	89.3
83		Houston	CUSA	-3.5944	0.0002	82.8
84		Nebraska	B12	-3.6532	0.0001	80.3
85		Missouri	B12	-3.6837	0.0001	70.5
86		Iowa	B10	-3.8006	0.0001	83.0
87		DePaul	BE	-3.8925	0.0000	73.5
88		Ohio	MAC	-3.9324	0.0000	92.5
89	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-3.9354	0.0000	100.9
90		Kent St.	MAC	-4.0663	0.0000	102.6
91		Louisiana St.	SEC	-4.1086	0.0000	67.8
92		Vermont	AE	-4.2225	0.0000	109.9
93		Colorado St.	MWC	-4.3672	0.0000	96.2
94		George Washington	A10	-4.4188	0.0000	93.1
95		Utah St.	WAC	-4.4892	0.0000	85.6
96		Fresno St.	WAC	-4.7302	0.0000	95.3
97	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-4.7383	0.0000	108.9
98		Auburn	SEC	-5.0454	0.0000	87.2
99		Saint Joseph's	A10	-5.0782	0.0000	94.7
100		Toledo	MAC	-5.1216	0.0000	109.7
101		Albany	AE	-5.1393	0.0000	116.0
102	X	Long Beach St.	BW	-5.1415	0.0000	113.1
103		Fordham	A10	-5.2876	0.0000	110.9
104		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-5.2999	0.0000	118.4
105		Boise St.	WAC	-5.3190	0.0000	108.2
106		Tulsa	CUSA	-5.4076	0.0000	100.4
107		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-5.5606	0.0000	126.4
108		South Carolina	SEC	-5.5695	0.0000	85.4
109		New Mexico	MWC	-5.6109	0.0000	96.6
110		North Carolina St.	ACC	-5.7185	0.0000	84.6
111		Bucknell	Pat	-5.7209	0.0000	121.5
112		Wyoming	MWC	-5.7616	0.0000	108.8
113		Central Florida	CUSA	-5.9570	0.0000	125.4
114		Oakland	MCon	-6.0368	0.0000	121.3
115		Wright St.	Horz	-6.0954	0.0000	124.4
116	X	Marist	MAAC	-6.1555	0.0000	129.9
117		South Alabama	SB	-6.2894	0.0000	123.7
118		Austin Peay	OVC	-6.5234	0.0000	138.0
119		George Mason	CAA	-6.7687	0.0000	118.4
120		Indiana St.	MVC	-6.7752	0.0000	108.1
121		Belmont	ASun	-6.8179	0.0000	144.1
122		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-7.0797	0.0000	124.2
123		UAB	CUSA	-7.1118	0.0000	118.5
124		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-7.1221	0.0000	127.5
125		Rhode Island	A10	-7.1560	0.0000	120.6
126		Samford	OVC	-7.2089	0.0000	148.8
127		College of Charleston	SC	-7.2116	0.0000	129.8
128	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-7.2286	0.0000	148.2
129		Evansville	MVC	-7.3002	0.0000	106.1
130		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-7.3868	0.0000	133.9
131		Utah	MWC	-7.4306	0.0000	122.1
132		North Texas	SB	-7.4900	0.0000	152.9
133		Seton Hall	BE	-7.9794	0.0000	105.1
134		Miami OH	MAC	-8.0367	0.0000	132.0
135		Cincinnati	BE	-8.1562	0.0000	117.0
136		North Dakota St.	ind	-8.1740	0.0000	156.3
137	X	Tennessee Tech	OVC	-8.2228	0.0000	151.8
138		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-8.2867	0.0000	155.2
139		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.3718	0.0000	148.0
140	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-8.6225	0.0000	159.4
141		Utah Valley St.	ind	-8.7163	0.0000	159.8
142		St. John's	BE	-8.8128	0.0000	123.7
143		Temple	A10	-8.8908	0.0000	140.1
144		Baylor	B12	-8.9164	0.0000	114.1
145		Wake Forest	ACC	-9.0817	0.0000	121.6
146		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-9.1317	0.0000	142.6
147	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-9.2142	0.0000	164.3
148		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.2594	0.0000	165.9
149		Yale	Ivy	-9.3444	0.0000	157.8
150		Iowa St.	B12	-9.4240	0.0000	126.3
151		Drake	MVC	-9.4723	0.0000	124.5
152		Illinois St.	MVC	-9.5994	0.0000	132.3
153		St. Mary's	WCC	-9.6692	0.0000	149.3
154		Marshall	CUSA	-9.7355	0.0000	155.0
155		Middle Tennessee	SB	-9.7923	0.0000	160.4
156		Loyola MD	MAAC	-9.8048	0.0000	180.0
157		Siena	MAAC	-9.8486	0.0000	164.5
158		Rice	CUSA	-9.8983	0.0000	161.4
159		Valparaiso	MCon	-10.0818	0.0000	173.2
160		South Florida	BE	-10.0975	0.0000	137.6
161		Towson	CAA	-10.1783	0.0000	146.0
162	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-10.2179	0.0000	161.9
163		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-10.2307	0.0000	172.2
164		Southern Utah	MCon	-10.2571	0.0000	171.8
165		Northwestern	B10	-10.2678	0.0000	131.8
166		Charlotte	A10	-10.4162	0.0000	144.8
167		Weber St.	BSky	-10.4626	0.0000	174.5
168		Duquesne	A10	-10.4809	0.0000	180.1
169		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-10.5047	0.0000	174.9
170		Minnesota	B10	-10.5895	0.0000	139.8
171		Central Connecticut	NEC	-10.5949	0.0000	189.1
172		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-10.9956	0.0000	186.3
173		Niagara	MAAC	-11.1502	0.0000	192.4
174		NC Greensboro	SC	-11.1700	0.0000	187.8
175		Murray St.	OVC	-11.1782	0.0000	194.3
176		Penn St.	B10	-11.1830	0.0000	137.7
177		Arkansas St.	SB	-11.3362	0.0000	192.7
178		Manhattan	MAAC	-11.4391	0.0000	200.8
179		UC Irvine	BW	-11.5926	0.0000	184.5
180		Youngstown St.	Horz	-11.5980	0.0000	178.9
181		Cornell	Ivy	-11.6632	0.0000	191.7
182		Detroit	Horz	-11.6830	0.0000	179.4
183		Miami FL	ACC	-11.7491	0.0000	155.6
184		San Francisco	WCC	-12.0302	0.0000	175.4
185	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-12.0483	0.0000	197.3
186		Columbia	Ivy	-12.0699	0.0000	192.2
187		Lipscomb	ASun	-12.0948	0.0000	192.6
188		High Point	BSth	-12.1122	0.0000	198.9
189	X	Boston University	AE	-12.1579	0.0000	190.7
190		Furman	SC	-12.1943	0.0000	194.2
191		Rider	MAAC	-12.2655	0.0000	196.5
192		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-12.4899	0.0000	186.7
193		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-12.5020	0.0000	202.8
194		Princeton	Ivy	-12.6381	0.0000	196.7
195		Pacific	BW	-12.8156	0.0000	191.3
196		Canisius	MAAC	-12.9018	0.0000	204.2
197		San Diego	WCC	-12.9485	0.0000	192.9
198		Harvard	Ivy	-13.1528	0.0000	193.0
199		Texas Christian	MWC	-13.1769	0.0000	167.4
200		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-13.1838	0.0000	207.2
201		Portland St.	BSky	-13.2005	0.0000	204.8
202		Lehigh	Pat	-13.3180	0.0000	208.5
203		Montana	BSky	-13.3920	0.0000	208.3
204		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-13.6524	0.0000	207.7
205		Northern Arizona	BSky	-13.7065	0.0000	224.0
206		Rutgers	BE	-13.8046	0.0000	168.2
207		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.8899	0.0000	222.7
208		Jacksonville	ASun	-13.9845	0.0000	218.0
209		Buffalo	MAC	-14.0287	0.0000	198.7
210		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-14.1655	0.0000	193.9
211		Cal Poly	BW	-14.2152	0.0000	224.7
212		American	Pat	-14.3692	0.0000	212.2
213		William & Mary	CAA	-14.4910	0.0000	192.9
214		Maine	AE	-14.5415	0.0000	226.5
215		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-14.6005	0.0000	221.6
216		Tulane	CUSA	-14.7576	0.0000	218.8
217		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-14.7609	0.0000	213.4
218		Army	Pat	-14.8229	0.0000	212.7
219		Fairfield	MAAC	-14.8703	0.0000	213.3
220		Hampton	MEAC	-14.9353	0.0000	227.1
221		Monmouth	NEC	-14.9787	0.0000	223.0
222		Eastern Washington	BSky	-15.0455	0.0000	227.0
223		Florida A&M	MEAC	-15.0465	0.0000	236.4
224		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-15.0855	0.0000	208.5
225		New Orleans	SB	-15.3762	0.0000	229.7
226		Oregon St.	P10	-15.4924	0.0000	170.5
227		Bowling Green	MAC	-15.5526	0.0000	219.3
228		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-15.6434	0.0000	242.8
229		Northeastern	CAA	-15.6465	0.0000	205.8
230		Florida Atlantic	SB	-15.6761	0.0000	229.2
231		IUPUI	MCon	-15.7909	0.0000	237.0
232		Brown	Ivy	-15.8153	0.0000	243.2
233		MD Baltimore County	AE	-15.8663	0.0000	236.3
234		Quinnipiac	NEC	-15.9351	0.0000	251.9
235		Lamar	Slnd	-15.9509	0.0000	242.6
236		Ball St.	MAC	-16.0750	0.0000	230.3
237		Colorado	B12	-16.1648	0.0000	199.6
238		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-16.1841	0.0000	249.6
239		Chattanooga	SC	-16.2922	0.0000	228.9
240		Navy	Pat	-16.5615	0.0000	236.5
241		Troy	SB	-16.7843	0.0000	241.5
242		Hartford	AE	-16.8568	0.0000	246.2
243		Mercer	ASun	-17.0060	0.0000	261.7
244		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-17.1032	0.0000	257.4
245		Tennessee St.	OVC	-17.1989	0.0000	249.2
246		Chicago St.	MCon	-17.2424	0.0000	230.5
247		Arizona St.	P10	-17.3493	0.0000	196.0
248		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-17.4511	0.0000	255.5
249		La Salle	A10	-17.5061	0.0000	234.2
250		Montana St.	BSky	-17.6087	0.0000	269.6
251		NC Wilmington	CAA	-17.7256	0.0000	229.5
252		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-17.7716	0.0000	246.9
253		Central Michigan	MAC	-17.8413	0.0000	253.7
254		Western Carolina	SC	-17.9024	0.0000	245.1
255		Stony Brook	AE	-18.0137	0.0000	257.6
256		Binghamton	AE	-18.0189	0.0000	262.8
257		Morehead St.	OVC	-18.0266	0.0000	272.8
258		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.0636	0.0000	271.7
259		Colgate	Pat	-18.1211	0.0000	255.8
260		San Jose St.	WAC	-18.1498	0.0000	227.5
261		Pepperdine	WCC	-18.2429	0.0000	243.8
262		New Hampshire	AE	-18.4167	0.0000	271.2
263		Liberty	BSth	-18.5017	0.0000	268.1
264		Georgia Southern	SC	-18.5367	0.0000	260.2
265		Texas Pan American	ind	-18.5757	0.0000	276.7
266		Florida International	SB	-18.6238	0.0000	267.8
267		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-18.6350	0.0000	279.7
268		Georgia St.	CAA	-18.6886	0.0000	233.4
269		Gardner Webb	ASun	-18.7083	0.0000	262.1
270		Stetson	ASun	-18.8207	0.0000	272.2
271		Campbell	ASun	-18.8612	0.0000	273.3
272		Dartmouth	Ivy	-18.8846	0.0000	265.2
273		Savannah St.	ind	-19.1566	0.0000	269.8
274		Cleveland St.	Horz	-19.2485	0.0000	272.1
275		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.2705	0.0000	277.8
276		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-19.2898	0.0000	274.6
277		Texas Southern	SWAC	-19.3311	0.0000	278.9
278		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-19.4729	0.0000	276.0
279		Morgan St.	MEAC	-19.5475	0.0000	297.7
280		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.5780	0.0000	287.9
281		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-19.6514	0.0000	278.0
282		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.7542	0.0000	265.6
283		Lafayette	Pat	-19.8302	0.0000	271.4
284		Grambling	SWAC	-19.9507	0.0000	297.2
285		St. Bonaventure	A10	-20.0132	0.0000	273.4
286		Wagner	NEC	-20.0264	0.0000	292.9
287		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-20.1216	0.0000	291.0
288		James Madison	CAA	-20.3369	0.0000	278.7
289		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-20.4047	0.0000	294.9
290		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-20.4144	0.0000	288.2
291		UC Davis	ind	-20.8191	0.0000	305.2
292		Southern	SWAC	-20.9502	0.0000	298.8
293		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-21.0675	0.0000	316.2
294		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.1498	0.0000	302.6
295		NC Asheville	BSth	-21.2518	0.0000	294.3
296		Portland	WCC	-21.2955	0.0000	276.8
297		Delaware	CAA	-21.4537	0.0000	286.1
298		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.5721	0.0000	293.4
299		Longwood	ind	-21.6093	0.0000	291.0
300		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-21.7405	0.0000	296.5
301		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.8434	0.0000	301.6
302		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-21.8445	0.0000	310.4
303		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.9288	0.0000	315.8
304		Centenary	MCon	-21.9872	0.0000	296.7
305		South Dakota St.	ind	-22.0263	0.0000	315.7
306		Long Island	NEC	-22.1017	0.0000	318.9
307		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.1497	0.0000	306.8
308		Richmond	A10	-22.1823	0.0000	278.7
309		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.2549	0.0000	316.4
310		UC Riverside	BW	-22.3371	0.0000	314.4
311		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-22.3846	0.0000	310.6
312		Radford	BSth	-22.4198	0.0000	312.4
313		Howard	MEAC	-22.4228	0.0000	322.6
314		Wofford	SC	-22.4471	0.0000	299.1
315		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.5215	0.0000	314.0
316		Idaho	WAC	-22.5346	0.0000	280.3
317		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-22.5569	0.0000	315.8
318		Elon	SC	-22.5660	0.0000	296.0
319		Winston Salem St.	ind	-22.7136	0.0000	313.2
320		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-22.7586	0.0000	315.9
321		East Carolina	CUSA	-22.7735	0.0000	307.2
322		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.7878	0.0000	329.4
323		The Citadel	SC	-22.8724	0.0000	291.3
324		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.9999	0.0000	326.3
325		St. Peter's	MAAC	-23.3636	0.0000	322.8
326		Iona	MAAC	-23.5145	0.0000	321.5
327		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.6873	0.0000	332.1
328		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.7227	0.0000	324.5
329		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.7475	0.0000	310.1
330		St. Francis PA	NEC	-23.8989	0.0000	326.1
331		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-23.9120	0.0000	329.3
332		Western Illinois	MCon	-24.0595	0.0000	331.2
333		Denver	SB	-24.0983	0.0000	329.2
334		Northern Colorado	BSky	-24.2875	0.0000	334.3
335		North Florida	ASun	-24.5869	0.0000	334.6
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-26.0787	0.0000	334.8

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com