Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Jan 2, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	UCLA	P10	8.7055	1.0000	1.9
2		Arizona	P10	8.0418	1.0000	3.8
3	X	North Carolina	ACC	7.9086	1.0000	2.9
4	X	Florida	SEC	6.9367	1.0000	10.8
5	X	Texas A&M	B12	6.9253	1.0000	10.3
6		Duke	ACC	6.8777	1.0000	3.8
7		Air Force	MWC	6.0589	1.0000	14.9
8	X	Ohio St.	B10	5.9613	1.0000	11.8
9		Wisconsin	B10	5.8501	1.0000	16.2
10		Villanova	BE	5.5475	1.0000	7.8
11	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	5.4057	1.0000	14.5
12	X	Butler	Horz	5.1849	1.0000	23.5
13	X	Notre Dame	BE	5.1230	1.0000	24.2
14		Tennessee	SEC	5.0728	1.0000	12.8
15		Kentucky	SEC	4.7739	1.0000	14.7
16		Oklahoma St.	B12	4.7548	1.0000	16.2
17		Georgia Tech	ACC	4.4670	1.0000	22.3
18	X	Missouri St.	MVC	4.4521	1.0000	21.0
19		Purdue	B10	4.3557	1.0000	27.8
20	X	Memphis	CUSA	4.3455	1.0000	22.3
21		Alabama	SEC	4.3097	1.0000	17.9
22		Oregon	P10	4.2177	1.0000	23.1
23	X	Nevada	WAC	4.1560	1.0000	30.2
24		Connecticut	BE	4.0929	1.0000	24.6
25		Maryland	ACC	4.0155	1.0000	16.1
26		Kansas	B12	3.9679	1.0000	31.1
27		Drexel	CAA	3.9566	1.0000	30.9
28		Clemson	ACC	3.8472	0.9999	23.3
29		Michigan St.	B10	3.3783	0.9996	23.2
30		Pittsburgh	BE	3.3558	0.9996	19.1
31		West Virginia	BE	3.0623	0.9989	31.3
32		Southern Illinois	MVC	2.9539	0.9984	30.5
33	X	Xavier	A10	2.7869	0.9973	38.2
34		Illinois	B10	2.5698	0.9949	27.2
35		Indiana	B10	2.3044	0.9894	33.7
36		Washington St.	P10	2.1462	0.9841	42.3
37		Georgetown	BE	1.8812	0.9700	37.6
38		Arkansas	SEC	1.5556	0.9401	33.9
39		Virginia Tech	ACC	1.4237	0.9227	43.4
40	X	Western Kentucky	SB	1.2878	0.9011	49.7
41		Missouri	B12	1.2122	0.8873	37.7
42		Marquette	BE	0.6237	0.7336	40.3
43		Syracuse	BE	0.6211	0.7327	39.7
44		Mississippi St.	SEC	0.5838	0.7203	43.8
45		Georgia	SEC	0.4634	0.6785	48.5
46		Florida St.	ACC	0.4481	0.6730	41.3
47	X	Gonzaga	WCC	0.3656	0.6427	54.6
48		Oklahoma	B12	0.3428	0.6341	46.2
49		Texas	B12	0.2079	0.5824	52.9
50		Boston College	ACC	-0.0819	0.4674	49.8
51		Louisiana St.	SEC	-0.1051	0.4582	48.2
52	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.2987	0.3826	63.7
53		DePaul	BE	-0.6359	0.2624	52.3
54		Creighton	MVC	-0.6381	0.2617	53.3
55		St. Louis	A10	-0.8182	0.2066	62.0
56		Providence	BE	-0.9246	0.1776	53.8
57		Southern California	P10	-1.0153	0.1550	56.1
58		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.0255	0.1526	57.2
59		Brigham Young	MWC	-1.1120	0.1331	61.2
60		Wichita St.	MVC	-1.1636	0.1223	61.9
61		California	P10	-1.3034	0.0962	52.0
62		Bradley	MVC	-1.3600	0.0869	60.8
63		Stanford	P10	-1.6355	0.0510	62.1
64	X	Winthrop	BSth	-1.6523	0.0492	88.0
65		Washington	P10	-1.7385	0.0411	58.1
66		George Washington	A10	-1.7752	0.0379	75.1
67		Nebraska	B12	-1.7816	0.0374	65.4
68	X	Davidson	SC	-1.7820	0.0374	81.0
69	X	Akron	MAC	-1.8422	0.0327	81.7
70		Texas Tech	B12	-2.0719	0.0191	54.3
71		Appalachian St.	SC	-2.1167	0.0171	87.0
72		Northern Iowa	MVC	-2.3032	0.0106	74.8
73	X	Pennsylvania	Ivy	-2.7396	0.0031	88.0
74		Hawaii	WAC	-2.8789	0.0020	80.5
75		Fresno St.	WAC	-3.0109	0.0013	87.0
76		New Mexico	MWC	-3.2580	0.0006	82.2
77		New Mexico St.	WAC	-3.3513	0.0004	89.0
78		Dayton	A10	-3.3868	0.0004	79.0
79		George Mason	CAA	-3.4746	0.0003	92.1
80		Louisville	BE	-3.4821	0.0002	71.5
81		UAB	CUSA	-3.5347	0.0002	85.9
82		Michigan	B10	-3.6891	0.0001	70.8
83		Massachusetts	A10	-3.6938	0.0001	94.8
84		Old Dominion	CAA	-3.7038	0.0001	83.9
85	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.7179	0.0001	103.5
86		Tulsa	CUSA	-3.7579	0.0001	83.8
87		Kansas St.	B12	-3.7908	0.0001	78.2
88	X	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-4.2680	0.0000	102.8
89		Temple	A10	-4.2907	0.0000	92.3
90		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-4.3777	0.0000	95.9
91		Santa Clara	WCC	-4.4366	0.0000	99.1
92	X	Marist	MAAC	-4.4742	0.0000	112.7
93		Virginia	ACC	-4.5439	0.0000	84.2
94		Cincinnati	BE	-4.5612	0.0000	82.4
95		Evansville	MVC	-4.7588	0.0000	86.0
96		Ohio	MAC	-4.7953	0.0000	103.4
97		Seton Hall	BE	-4.8123	0.0000	82.1
98		Kent St.	MAC	-4.9080	0.0000	111.3
99	X	Belmont	ASun	-5.0992	0.0000	126.0
100		Utah St.	WAC	-5.2513	0.0000	96.9
101		Mississippi	SEC	-5.2894	0.0000	81.8
102		Boise St.	WAC	-5.3475	0.0000	112.3
103		Northwestern	B10	-5.3627	0.0000	94.1
104		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-5.5460	0.0000	105.2
105		Vanderbilt	SEC	-5.5749	0.0000	92.5
106		Houston	CUSA	-5.6887	0.0000	98.1
107		South Carolina	SEC	-5.8902	0.0000	87.6
108	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-5.9134	0.0000	113.1
109		North Texas	SB	-6.2097	0.0000	135.8
110		Indiana St.	MVC	-6.4470	0.0000	99.3
111		Albany	AE	-6.4620	0.0000	130.6
112	X	Oral Roberts	MCon	-6.4806	0.0000	127.1
113		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.5418	0.0000	129.6
114		Saint Joseph's	A10	-6.6063	0.0000	107.8
115		Long Beach St.	BW	-6.6265	0.0000	125.2
116		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-6.6348	0.0000	132.4
117		Western Michigan	MAC	-6.7980	0.0000	128.4
118		Bucknell	Pat	-6.8420	0.0000	135.4
119		Vermont	AE	-6.8541	0.0000	136.7
120		Penn St.	B10	-7.1633	0.0000	105.4
121		Wake Forest	ACC	-7.1652	0.0000	111.4
122		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-7.1673	0.0000	125.7
123		Utah	MWC	-7.2015	0.0000	127.2
124		Colorado St.	MWC	-7.2411	0.0000	120.7
125		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-7.3484	0.0000	128.6
126		Auburn	SEC	-7.3550	0.0000	103.2
127		North Carolina St.	ACC	-7.4438	0.0000	104.3
128		Iowa	B10	-7.4645	0.0000	112.1
129		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-7.4987	0.0000	144.1
130		Samford	OVC	-7.6075	0.0000	151.8
131		Fordham	A10	-7.6289	0.0000	135.0
132		Robert Morris	NEC	-7.8332	0.0000	150.8
133	X	Sacred Heart	NEC	-7.8337	0.0000	151.8
134		Baylor	B12	-7.8399	0.0000	104.7
135		College of Charleston	SC	-7.9123	0.0000	138.3
136		Illinois St.	MVC	-8.1519	0.0000	111.9
137		San Diego	WCC	-8.2037	0.0000	144.6
138		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-8.2853	0.0000	139.3
139		Hofstra	CAA	-8.4287	0.0000	139.1
140		Miami FL	ACC	-8.4376	0.0000	128.6
141		Middle Tennessee	SB	-8.5583	0.0000	149.2
142	X	Idaho St.	BSky	-8.6746	0.0000	146.0
143		Wyoming	MWC	-8.7684	0.0000	132.7
144		Loyola MD	MAAC	-8.7896	0.0000	163.2
145		Siena	MAAC	-8.8598	0.0000	160.1
146		Oakland	MCon	-8.9644	0.0000	149.2
147	X	Jackson St.	SWAC	-9.0239	0.0000	169.1
148		Army	Pat	-9.1704	0.0000	153.9
149		South Florida	BE	-9.2191	0.0000	127.7
150		Drake	MVC	-9.2350	0.0000	119.2
151		Miami OH	MAC	-9.2873	0.0000	143.2
152		UC Irvine	BW	-9.4257	0.0000	153.3
153	X	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-9.4773	0.0000	167.8
154		Toledo	MAC	-9.5476	0.0000	159.5
155		Charlotte	A10	-9.6377	0.0000	136.2
156		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-9.8511	0.0000	174.5
157		Youngstown St.	Horz	-9.9375	0.0000	163.8
158		Rider	MAAC	-9.9783	0.0000	172.3
159		Eastern Washington	BSky	-10.0197	0.0000	172.6
160		Towson	CAA	-10.1573	0.0000	145.8
161		Navy	Pat	-10.1793	0.0000	166.3
162		Canisius	MAAC	-10.2828	0.0000	172.4
163		American	Pat	-10.4110	0.0000	174.4
164		Utah Valley St.	ind	-10.4179	0.0000	181.5
165		North Dakota St.	ind	-10.4595	0.0000	187.3
166		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-10.5500	0.0000	166.4
167	X	Delaware St.	MEAC	-10.6621	0.0000	180.7
168		Furman	SC	-10.7797	0.0000	177.0
169		Buffalo	MAC	-10.8100	0.0000	167.8
170		St. Mary's	WCC	-10.8860	0.0000	159.3
171		Texas Christian	MWC	-10.9677	0.0000	147.1
172		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-11.1825	0.0000	192.9
173		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-11.2874	0.0000	179.7
174		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-11.3028	0.0000	160.7
175		Austin Peay	OVC	-11.3120	0.0000	190.8
176		Lipscomb	ASun	-11.3482	0.0000	188.2
177		South Alabama	SB	-11.3572	0.0000	173.8
178		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-11.4856	0.0000	192.9
179		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-11.5037	0.0000	188.6
180		St. John's	BE	-11.6560	0.0000	138.1
181		Southern Utah	MCon	-11.7399	0.0000	191.4
182		NC Greensboro	SC	-11.7617	0.0000	193.4
183		Minnesota	B10	-11.9114	0.0000	148.0
184		Chattanooga	SC	-11.9552	0.0000	186.8
185		Princeton	Ivy	-12.0827	0.0000	191.0
186		Murray St.	OVC	-12.1926	0.0000	201.4
187		Columbia	Ivy	-12.2409	0.0000	195.2
188	X	Boston University	AE	-12.3003	0.0000	200.4
189		Rhode Island	A10	-12.5345	0.0000	166.0
190		Valparaiso	MCon	-12.6220	0.0000	196.7
191		Montana	BSky	-12.6584	0.0000	202.2
192		Hartford	AE	-12.6729	0.0000	198.6
193		Campbell	ASun	-12.7339	0.0000	203.3
194		Harvard	Ivy	-12.7494	0.0000	194.3
195		Marshall	CUSA	-12.7755	0.0000	184.6
196		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-12.8013	0.0000	195.7
197		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.8792	0.0000	213.4
198		Weber St.	BSky	-12.8978	0.0000	204.7
199		Iowa St.	B12	-12.9372	0.0000	157.5
200		NC Wilmington	CAA	-13.0345	0.0000	188.9
201		Rice	CUSA	-13.1358	0.0000	188.5
202		Lamar	Slnd	-13.4192	0.0000	214.3
203		New Orleans	SB	-13.4269	0.0000	207.3
204		Yale	Ivy	-13.4809	0.0000	203.4
205		Portland St.	BSky	-13.5097	0.0000	208.0
206		Pacific	BW	-13.6155	0.0000	199.7
207		Ball St.	MAC	-13.7081	0.0000	195.9
208		IUPUI	MCon	-13.7329	0.0000	211.9
209		Morehead St.	OVC	-13.8031	0.0000	227.1
210		Oregon St.	P10	-13.8404	0.0000	158.2
211		Stony Brook	AE	-14.0522	0.0000	221.1
212		Tulane	CUSA	-14.0810	0.0000	200.7
213		High Point	BSth	-14.0843	0.0000	215.6
214		Monmouth	NEC	-14.2325	0.0000	215.2
215		Troy	SB	-14.4982	0.0000	219.1
216		Brown	Ivy	-14.5046	0.0000	225.7
217		Cornell	Ivy	-14.6275	0.0000	229.5
218		Arizona St.	P10	-14.6629	0.0000	172.4
219		Pepperdine	WCC	-14.7375	0.0000	211.4
220		William & Mary	CAA	-14.7511	0.0000	201.0
221		Detroit	Horz	-14.7790	0.0000	210.2
222		Georgia Southern	SC	-14.8823	0.0000	224.9
223		Tennessee St.	OVC	-14.9548	0.0000	224.8
224		Florida Atlantic	SB	-14.9774	0.0000	221.5
225		Maine	AE	-15.0481	0.0000	228.6
226		Niagara	MAAC	-15.4241	0.0000	236.1
227		Central Michigan	MAC	-15.4559	0.0000	227.1
228		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.6341	0.0000	237.3
229		Rutgers	BE	-15.6776	0.0000	178.3
230		San Francisco	WCC	-15.7558	0.0000	222.4
231		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-15.8774	0.0000	236.3
232		Cleveland St.	Horz	-15.9273	0.0000	229.3
233		Northeastern	CAA	-15.9498	0.0000	213.1
234		Duquesne	A10	-15.9515	0.0000	224.7
235		Wright St.	Horz	-16.0148	0.0000	227.7
236		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-16.1207	0.0000	241.9
237		Texas Southern	SWAC	-16.1264	0.0000	250.7
238		Fairfield	MAAC	-16.2651	0.0000	228.6
239		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-16.2697	0.0000	251.0
240		Arkansas St.	SB	-16.2741	0.0000	242.8
241		Lehigh	Pat	-16.3989	0.0000	246.7
242		Binghamton	AE	-16.4148	0.0000	247.5
243		MD Baltimore County	AE	-16.5157	0.0000	242.8
244		Northern Arizona	BSky	-16.6144	0.0000	251.9
245		Bowling Green	MAC	-16.6980	0.0000	237.6
246		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.7433	0.0000	256.1
247		Hampton	MEAC	-17.0094	0.0000	255.7
248		Manhattan	MAAC	-17.1262	0.0000	257.5
249		Texas Pan American	ind	-17.1382	0.0000	258.8
250		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-17.2649	0.0000	235.0
251		Dartmouth	Ivy	-17.2798	0.0000	244.3
252		Florida A&M	MEAC	-17.3240	0.0000	261.8
253		La Salle	A10	-17.3988	0.0000	234.2
254		Stetson	ASun	-17.4529	0.0000	255.2
255		Mercer	ASun	-17.4601	0.0000	265.9
256		Liberty	BSth	-17.6430	0.0000	256.3
257		Howard	MEAC	-17.6893	0.0000	273.2
258		Centenary	MCon	-17.7373	0.0000	258.4
259		Coppin St.	MEAC	-17.8412	0.0000	249.5
260		Western Carolina	SC	-18.0470	0.0000	251.8
261		Delaware	CAA	-18.1694	0.0000	253.9
262		Georgia St.	CAA	-18.1805	0.0000	241.5
263		Chicago St.	MCon	-18.2523	0.0000	244.1
264		Colgate	Pat	-18.3810	0.0000	261.3
265		Cal Poly	BW	-18.4156	0.0000	269.9
266		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-18.4563	0.0000	278.8
267		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-18.5553	0.0000	275.6
268		IUPU Fort Wayne	ind	-18.5755	0.0000	278.2
269		Lafayette	Pat	-18.6093	0.0000	260.3
270		Richmond	A10	-18.7058	0.0000	242.9
271		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.7148	0.0000	281.7
272		St. Francis PA	NEC	-18.7543	0.0000	280.1
273		Radford	BSth	-19.0893	0.0000	274.3
274		Northern Illinois	MAC	-19.1270	0.0000	272.2
275		San Jose St.	WAC	-19.2142	0.0000	244.8
276		Central Connecticut	NEC	-19.3166	0.0000	286.0
277		Longwood	ind	-19.3958	0.0000	270.4
278		Florida International	SB	-19.4459	0.0000	271.1
279		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-19.5230	0.0000	278.3
280		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-19.6395	0.0000	279.5
281		St. Peter's	MAAC	-19.6959	0.0000	284.7
282		NC Asheville	BSth	-20.1109	0.0000	288.6
283		East Carolina	CUSA	-20.1783	0.0000	279.2
284		Quinnipiac	NEC	-20.2511	0.0000	298.5
285		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-20.2961	0.0000	251.3
286		Colorado	B12	-20.3365	0.0000	238.8
287		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-20.3444	0.0000	289.6
288		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-20.3446	0.0000	281.2
289		Southern	SWAC	-20.5122	0.0000	297.3
290		Long Island	NEC	-20.5177	0.0000	301.0
291		Wagner	NEC	-20.5298	0.0000	297.8
292		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-20.5707	0.0000	297.4
293		Morgan St.	MEAC	-20.8435	0.0000	304.2
294		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-20.8629	0.0000	291.1
295		New Hampshire	AE	-20.8871	0.0000	300.2
296		Grambling	SWAC	-20.8932	0.0000	306.8
297		Gardner Webb	ASun	-20.8982	0.0000	287.5
298		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-21.1704	0.0000	284.9
299		Charleston Southern	BSth	-21.2460	0.0000	303.6
300		UC Davis	ind	-21.2676	0.0000	310.0
301		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.2765	0.0000	308.0
302		McNeese St.	Slnd	-21.2855	0.0000	293.9
303		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.3806	0.0000	300.2
304		St. Francis NY	NEC	-21.3830	0.0000	302.4
305		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-21.5102	0.0000	300.2
306		Missouri Kansas City	MCon	-21.5205	0.0000	297.6
307		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-21.6131	0.0000	299.3
308		UC Riverside	BW	-21.7323	0.0000	305.2
309		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-21.8757	0.0000	313.8
310		Savannah St.	ind	-21.9723	0.0000	306.0
311		Elon	SC	-22.0978	0.0000	293.7
312		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.1630	0.0000	312.6
313		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-22.1903	0.0000	316.5
314		Western Illinois	MCon	-22.3014	0.0000	314.6
315		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-22.3603	0.0000	310.6
316		Wofford	SC	-22.4754	0.0000	306.2
317		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-22.4782	0.0000	325.7
318		St. Bonaventure	A10	-22.5543	0.0000	298.1
319		Montana St.	BSky	-22.7659	0.0000	319.2
320		Texas St.	Slnd	-22.7748	0.0000	316.0
321		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.8284	0.0000	323.3
322		Portland	WCC	-22.8327	0.0000	297.2
323		Idaho	WAC	-22.8345	0.0000	281.9
324		James Madison	CAA	-22.9852	0.0000	299.4
325		Iona	MAAC	-23.0273	0.0000	318.2
326		The Citadel	SC	-23.1112	0.0000	300.2
327		South Dakota St.	ind	-23.2110	0.0000	327.1
328		Winston Salem St.	ind	-23.3585	0.0000	321.2
329		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-23.5491	0.0000	331.0
330		Northern Colorado	BSky	-23.5807	0.0000	332.8
331		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.8283	0.0000	333.4
332		North Florida	ASun	-23.9172	0.0000	330.3
333		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-23.9843	0.0000	313.5
334		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-24.1077	0.0000	332.5
335		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.4617	0.0000	326.7
336		Denver	SB	-24.7179	0.0000	334.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, and to Jay Colemen for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com