Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Feb 2, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.9077	1.0000	1.9
2		Duke	ACC	9.6032	1.0000	3.0
3	X	Tennessee	SEC	9.0317	1.0000	2.4
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.4826	1.0000	3.0
5	X	Kansas	B12	8.4237	1.0000	5.0
6	X	UCLA	P10	7.8923	1.0000	6.4
7		Georgetown	BE	6.4786	1.0000	9.8
8	X	Xavier	A10	6.2322	1.0000	9.5
9		Michigan St.	B10	5.8512	1.0000	13.3
10	X	Drake	MVC	5.4594	1.0000	13.8
11		Arizona	P10	5.4161	1.0000	9.8
12		Indiana	B10	5.3477	1.0000	19.8
13		Stanford	P10	5.0288	1.0000	20.0
14	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.6434	1.0000	15.1
15		Marquette	BE	4.6215	1.0000	17.0
16		Texas	B12	4.4124	1.0000	12.9
17		Washington St.	P10	4.0158	1.0000	22.0
18		Connecticut	BE	3.9069	1.0000	17.9
19		Clemson	ACC	3.7269	0.9999	27.4
20	X	Butler	Horz	3.6833	0.9999	33.0
21	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	3.3805	0.9996	27.0
22		Kansas St.	B12	3.3554	0.9996	19.4
23		Arkansas	SEC	3.2750	0.9995	27.6
24		Rhode Island	A10	3.2735	0.9995	29.7
25	X	West Virginia	BE	3.2051	0.9993	27.9
26		Southern California	P10	3.2038	0.9993	31.5
27	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.1810	0.9993	32.4
28		Oklahoma	B12	3.0623	0.9989	25.0
29		Notre Dame	BE	2.9630	0.9985	34.6
30		St. Mary's	WCC	2.8811	0.9980	35.4
31		Texas A&M	B12	2.8518	0.9978	27.0
32		Ohio St.	B10	2.7213	0.9967	29.4
33		Louisville	BE	2.7049	0.9966	22.8
34		Mississippi	SEC	2.6414	0.9959	29.6
35		Pittsburgh	BE	2.5262	0.9942	27.8
36		Florida	SEC	2.2123	0.9865	34.7
37		Baylor	B12	1.8971	0.9711	31.8
38		Brigham Young	MWC	1.7238	0.9576	43.5
39		Vanderbilt	SEC	1.7104	0.9564	26.7
40		Dayton	A10	1.6755	0.9531	30.8
41	X	South Alabama	SB	1.2287	0.8904	47.1
42		Syracuse	BE	1.1556	0.8761	28.7
43		Miami FL	ACC	0.9847	0.8376	38.7
44		George Mason	CAA	0.7868	0.7843	56.1
45	X	Davidson	SC	0.6162	0.7311	60.7
46		Kent St.	MAC	0.4489	0.6733	59.7
47		Massachusetts	A10	0.4325	0.6673	46.4
48		Mississippi St.	SEC	0.3934	0.6530	43.1
49		Illinois St.	MVC	0.3840	0.6495	53.8
50		Saint Joseph's	A10	0.1508	0.5599	51.5
51		UAB	CUSA	0.1294	0.5515	53.5
52		Purdue	B10	0.0700	0.5279	60.1
53		Maryland	ACC	-0.2354	0.4069	44.7
54		California	P10	-0.3402	0.3669	50.8
55	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-0.4056	0.3425	64.1
56		Houston	CUSA	-0.4568	0.3239	54.2
57		Ohio	MAC	-0.4962	0.3099	60.9
58		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.6778	0.2490	62.8
59		Oregon	P10	-0.9657	0.1671	54.5
60		Creighton	MVC	-1.0257	0.1525	59.7
61		Virginia Tech	ACC	-1.0518	0.1465	63.2
62		Texas Tech	B12	-1.0895	0.1380	56.7
63		Oral Roberts	Sum	-1.4643	0.0716	78.4
64		North Carolina St.	ACC	-1.5141	0.0650	64.8
65		Missouri	B12	-1.7792	0.0376	61.7
66	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-1.8336	0.0334	77.4
67	X	Akron	MAC	-1.8858	0.0297	78.9
68		Kentucky	SEC	-1.9709	0.0244	65.3
69		Southern Illinois	MVC	-2.0634	0.0195	73.1
70		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.0890	0.0184	65.9
71		New Mexico	MWC	-2.2285	0.0129	70.0
72		Seton Hall	BE	-2.4016	0.0082	65.9
73		Charlotte	A10	-2.8086	0.0025	85.7
74		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.8728	0.0020	89.6
75		Boise St.	WAC	-2.9790	0.0014	98.5
76	X	IUPUI	Sum	-3.0511	0.0011	101.9
77		Wright St.	Horz	-3.0844	0.0010	86.9
78		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.1290	0.0009	75.7
79		Arizona St.	P10	-3.1855	0.0007	80.7
80		Florida St.	ACC	-3.2235	0.0006	67.6
81		NC Asheville	BSth	-3.2375	0.0006	98.7
82		Minnesota	B10	-3.3773	0.0004	78.1
83		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-3.4180	0.0003	96.3
84	X	Cornell	Ivy	-3.4341	0.0003	98.6
85		Duquesne	A10	-3.4679	0.0003	79.0
86		Boston College	ACC	-3.4814	0.0002	71.4
87		Temple	A10	-3.6089	0.0002	76.8
88		Wake Forest	ACC	-3.6261	0.0001	83.4
89		Miami OH	MAC	-3.6919	0.0001	82.4
90		Providence	BE	-3.7155	0.0001	72.1
91		Nevada	WAC	-3.8859	0.0001	90.6
92		Cleveland St.	Horz	-4.0076	0.0000	98.1
93	X	Siena	MAAC	-4.1896	0.0000	99.9
94		Utah St.	WAC	-4.2528	0.0000	107.8
95		Villanova	BE	-4.2688	0.0000	84.1
96		South Carolina	SEC	-4.2956	0.0000	77.5
97		Rider	MAAC	-4.3542	0.0000	113.4
98		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-4.3608	0.0000	107.3
99		Valparaiso	Horz	-4.3772	0.0000	99.2
100		Utah	MWC	-4.4571	0.0000	85.3
101		Cincinnati	BE	-4.6624	0.0000	98.0
102	X	Winthrop	BSth	-4.6956	0.0000	113.9
103		Northern Iowa	MVC	-4.7410	0.0000	106.4
104	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-4.8948	0.0000	110.2
105		Niagara	MAAC	-5.0163	0.0000	114.7
106		Nebraska	B12	-5.1616	0.0000	102.8
107		Chattanooga	SC	-5.2122	0.0000	103.1
108		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-5.3201	0.0000	94.4
109		Appalachian St.	SC	-5.6047	0.0000	124.9
110	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.7924	0.0000	125.7
111		Georgia	SEC	-5.8339	0.0000	101.3
112		Bradley	MVC	-5.8834	0.0000	104.7
113		Marist	MAAC	-5.9517	0.0000	113.6
114		Pacific	BW	-6.1805	0.0000	131.7
115		Hampton	MEAC	-6.2363	0.0000	130.6
116		NC Greensboro	SC	-6.4987	0.0000	128.0
117		Alabama	SEC	-6.5464	0.0000	88.9
118	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-6.6530	0.0000	140.5
119		Belmont	ASun	-6.7225	0.0000	144.7
120		Marshall	CUSA	-6.7623	0.0000	116.8
121		Washington	P10	-6.7803	0.0000	104.9
122		Illinois	B10	-6.9020	0.0000	104.3
123		North Texas	SB	-6.9382	0.0000	139.4
124		Iowa St.	B12	-7.0006	0.0000	109.9
125		Tulane	CUSA	-7.0782	0.0000	121.2
126		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-7.0911	0.0000	127.6
127		Georgia Southern	SC	-7.0966	0.0000	129.3
128	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-7.2184	0.0000	130.5
129	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-7.2657	0.0000	130.5
130		Virginia	ACC	-7.3201	0.0000	100.4
131	X	Northern Arizona	BSky	-7.4428	0.0000	148.1
132	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-7.4568	0.0000	140.6
133		Lafayette	Pat	-7.4919	0.0000	138.4
134		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-7.6706	0.0000	127.4
135		Richmond	A10	-7.6857	0.0000	133.9
136	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-7.7411	0.0000	149.1
137		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.7826	0.0000	127.9
138		American	Pat	-7.8671	0.0000	150.0
139		Penn St.	B10	-7.9651	0.0000	120.9
140	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.1565	0.0000	154.4
141		Portland St.	BSky	-8.3822	0.0000	163.3
142		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-8.4252	0.0000	147.0
143		Old Dominion	CAA	-8.4266	0.0000	137.1
144		Wagner	NEC	-8.4498	0.0000	161.1
145		Oklahoma St.	B12	-8.5261	0.0000	117.9
146		St. Louis	A10	-8.6552	0.0000	127.8
147		San Diego	WCC	-8.7594	0.0000	135.7
148		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.1481	0.0000	141.9
149		St. John's	BE	-9.1650	0.0000	117.8
150		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.4841	0.0000	176.1
151		Western Michigan	MAC	-9.5567	0.0000	167.7
152		Iowa	B10	-9.5953	0.0000	145.4
153		Quinnipiac	NEC	-9.5999	0.0000	176.6
154		Tulsa	CUSA	-9.6182	0.0000	148.7
155		Missouri St.	MVC	-9.7504	0.0000	135.1
156		Middle Tennessee	SB	-9.7528	0.0000	151.9
157		Brown	Ivy	-9.7659	0.0000	156.2
158		William & Mary	CAA	-9.7714	0.0000	164.7
159		NC Wilmington	CAA	-9.8078	0.0000	163.1
160		DePaul	BE	-9.8594	0.0000	133.3
161		Indiana St.	MVC	-9.9788	0.0000	149.4
162		Murray St.	OVC	-10.1179	0.0000	175.7
163		Auburn	SEC	-10.2212	0.0000	135.0
164		Lamar	Slnd	-10.3050	0.0000	172.5
165		New Orleans	SB	-10.4058	0.0000	166.7
166		South Florida	BE	-10.5783	0.0000	140.9
167		Oakland	Sum	-10.6196	0.0000	179.2
168		Loyola MD	MAAC	-10.7130	0.0000	178.6
169		Santa Clara	WCC	-10.7502	0.0000	164.5
170		Jacksonville	ASun	-10.8504	0.0000	185.3
171		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-11.0989	0.0000	157.5
172		Fresno St.	WAC	-11.2621	0.0000	165.7
173		Delaware	CAA	-11.3423	0.0000	177.6
174		Bucknell	Pat	-11.3482	0.0000	184.6
175		Air Force	MWC	-11.3788	0.0000	163.8
176		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-11.4277	0.0000	173.8
177		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-11.5135	0.0000	189.0
178		UC Irvine	BW	-11.5797	0.0000	173.0
179		Montana St.	BSky	-11.6352	0.0000	189.3
180		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.6449	0.0000	185.8
181		Wichita St.	MVC	-11.6981	0.0000	159.3
182		Colorado	B12	-11.7760	0.0000	159.6
183		Colgate	Pat	-11.8752	0.0000	189.0
184		Fordham	A10	-11.8760	0.0000	162.4
185		Wofford	SC	-11.8952	0.0000	183.7
186		Albany	AE	-12.0168	0.0000	198.6
187	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.3403	0.0000	216.3
188		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-12.3647	0.0000	201.6
189		Vermont	AE	-12.3993	0.0000	202.4
190		Bowling Green	MAC	-12.6364	0.0000	189.2
191		Central Michigan	MAC	-12.7655	0.0000	197.3
192		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.7868	0.0000	205.5
193		James Madison	CAA	-12.7970	0.0000	191.5
194		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-12.9204	0.0000	209.7
195		Long Island	NEC	-13.2917	0.0000	203.5
196		Yale	Ivy	-13.2966	0.0000	203.7
197		Binghamton	AE	-13.3101	0.0000	217.3
198		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.3346	0.0000	203.7
199		Lehigh	Pat	-13.4108	0.0000	210.9
200		Weber St.	BSky	-13.4895	0.0000	211.2
201		Rutgers	BE	-13.5227	0.0000	174.8
202		Texas Christian	MWC	-13.6048	0.0000	184.3
203		Northeastern	CAA	-13.7900	0.0000	195.6
204		College of Charleston	SC	-13.8610	0.0000	195.9
205		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-13.8726	0.0000	213.4
206		Hawaii	WAC	-14.1046	0.0000	211.1
207		Liberty	BSth	-14.2152	0.0000	214.5
208		Morehead St.	OVC	-14.2630	0.0000	224.8
209		Michigan	B10	-14.3552	0.0000	179.4
210		Toledo	MAC	-14.3869	0.0000	202.7
211		Montana	BSky	-14.4654	0.0000	222.7
212		George Washington	A10	-14.5121	0.0000	190.8
213		North Dakota St.	Sum	-14.5261	0.0000	213.8
214		Iona	MAAC	-14.6234	0.0000	217.9
215		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.6776	0.0000	217.6
216		Columbia	Ivy	-14.8915	0.0000	226.6
217		Towson	CAA	-14.9802	0.0000	220.0
218		Denver	SB	-15.1722	0.0000	228.0
219		Troy	SB	-15.1810	0.0000	208.6
220		Louisiana St.	SEC	-15.3208	0.0000	181.0
221		Wyoming	MWC	-15.3482	0.0000	199.3
222		Delaware St.	MEAC	-15.4170	0.0000	231.1
223		Northwestern	B10	-15.4810	0.0000	196.9
224		Chicago St.	ind	-15.5653	0.0000	229.1
225		Hartford	AE	-15.5668	0.0000	233.4
226		La Salle	A10	-15.7935	0.0000	211.9
227		Youngstown St.	Horz	-15.8846	0.0000	206.0
228		Cal Poly	BW	-15.9548	0.0000	224.1
229		Fairfield	MAAC	-15.9556	0.0000	232.7
230		Gardner Webb	ASun	-15.9792	0.0000	243.9
231		High Point	BSth	-16.1728	0.0000	239.6
232		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-16.2273	0.0000	227.8
233		Lipscomb	ASun	-16.4223	0.0000	249.1
234		Army	Pat	-16.4264	0.0000	244.0
235		Western Illinois	Sum	-16.4774	0.0000	240.6
236		Utah Valley St.	ind	-16.5150	0.0000	256.7
237		Hofstra	CAA	-16.5644	0.0000	237.1
238		Arkansas St.	SB	-16.7482	0.0000	246.2
239		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-16.8007	0.0000	242.4
240		St. Bonaventure	A10	-16.9593	0.0000	222.2
241		Pepperdine	WCC	-17.0528	0.0000	224.9
242		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-17.1228	0.0000	230.1
243		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.1312	0.0000	255.8
244		Tennessee St.	OVC	-17.1416	0.0000	256.2
245		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-17.2768	0.0000	247.3
246		Drexel	CAA	-17.2972	0.0000	227.4
247		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-17.4409	0.0000	257.9
248		Florida Atlantic	SB	-17.5360	0.0000	239.0
249		Southern	SWAC	-17.6363	0.0000	267.8
250		Navy	Pat	-17.6967	0.0000	263.9
251		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-17.7157	0.0000	261.2
252		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-17.8534	0.0000	245.1
253		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-17.9124	0.0000	271.1
254		Centenary	Sum	-18.0157	0.0000	258.2
255		Idaho St.	BSky	-18.0241	0.0000	266.1
256		San Francisco	WCC	-18.1662	0.0000	243.6
257		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-18.2143	0.0000	268.0
258		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-18.2301	0.0000	255.9
259		Samford	OVC	-18.3392	0.0000	275.0
260		Harvard	Ivy	-18.3623	0.0000	266.3
261		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-18.7302	0.0000	268.0
262		Florida A&M	MEAC	-18.7797	0.0000	275.0
263		Campbell	ASun	-18.8541	0.0000	277.3
264		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-18.8771	0.0000	261.9
265		Mercer	ASun	-18.9092	0.0000	291.2
266		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.9102	0.0000	297.1
267		Buffalo	MAC	-18.9336	0.0000	243.0
268		Boston University	AE	-18.9408	0.0000	273.5
269		Princeton	Ivy	-18.9655	0.0000	277.5
270		Stetson	ASun	-19.0771	0.0000	273.7
271		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.0840	0.0000	281.7
272		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-19.1342	0.0000	252.0
273		Florida International	SB	-19.1555	0.0000	248.5
274		Colorado St.	MWC	-19.1726	0.0000	233.3
275		Oregon St.	P10	-19.2013	0.0000	230.6
276		Elon	SC	-19.2904	0.0000	265.0
277		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-19.3120	0.0000	294.7
278		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.3766	0.0000	284.6
279		Manhattan	MAAC	-19.4645	0.0000	278.1
280		Evansville	MVC	-19.4749	0.0000	242.6
281		New Hampshire	AE	-19.4983	0.0000	286.5
282		McNeese St.	Slnd	-19.5638	0.0000	278.0
283		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-19.6141	0.0000	278.1
284		UC Davis	BW	-19.7395	0.0000	279.3
285		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-19.7405	0.0000	277.5
286		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.8240	0.0000	281.6
287		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.8576	0.0000	289.8
288		Dartmouth	Ivy	-19.8600	0.0000	287.6
289		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-19.8727	0.0000	276.4
290		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.1351	0.0000	279.9
291		Southern Utah	Sum	-20.1666	0.0000	272.4
292		Texas Pan American	ind	-20.3086	0.0000	311.0
293		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-20.4429	0.0000	296.1
294		Savannah St.	ind	-20.4518	0.0000	298.3
295		Detroit	Horz	-20.8292	0.0000	273.0
296		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-20.9180	0.0000	308.5
297		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.0455	0.0000	300.4
298		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.0978	0.0000	301.8
299		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-21.1005	0.0000	305.1
300		Rice	CUSA	-21.4826	0.0000	275.5
301		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.4995	0.0000	309.1
302		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.5467	0.0000	279.5
303		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-21.6036	0.0000	296.8
304		Portland	WCC	-21.7032	0.0000	283.9
305		Monmouth	NEC	-21.7320	0.0000	303.7
306		Jackson St.	SWAC	-21.7502	0.0000	304.3
307		South Dakota St.	Sum	-21.9117	0.0000	302.3
308		UC Riverside	BW	-22.0936	0.0000	288.9
309		Western Carolina	SC	-22.1190	0.0000	292.5
310		Ball St.	MAC	-22.1598	0.0000	286.6
311		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.1655	0.0000	312.2
312		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.3445	0.0000	306.3
313		Idaho	WAC	-22.6735	0.0000	305.6
314		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.7406	0.0000	326.8
315		St. Peter's	MAAC	-22.9014	0.0000	307.0
316		Canisius	MAAC	-23.1397	0.0000	316.1
317		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.1425	0.0000	312.4
318		Radford	BSth	-23.1661	0.0000	321.7
319		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.1697	0.0000	327.9
320		Longwood	ind	-23.2876	0.0000	333.2
321		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.3372	0.0000	324.8
322		Long Beach St.	BW	-23.3583	0.0000	312.3
323		Maine	AE	-23.4346	0.0000	325.6
324		Furman	SC	-23.5107	0.0000	312.3
325		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.5441	0.0000	331.2
326		Texas Southern	SWAC	-23.5841	0.0000	322.6
327		Howard	MEAC	-23.6059	0.0000	324.5
328		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.7772	0.0000	335.6
329		Stony Brook	AE	-23.9217	0.0000	329.0
330		Charleston Southern	BSth	-23.9663	0.0000	327.7
331		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.0571	0.0000	338.3
332		Coppin St.	MEAC	-24.0693	0.0000	319.8
333		Grambling	SWAC	-24.1116	0.0000	334.7
334		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.1763	0.0000	340.9
335		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-24.3944	0.0000	319.6
336		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.4539	0.0000	307.7
337		Presbyterian	ind	-24.4734	0.0000	327.8
338		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.6298	0.0000	338.5
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.1048	0.0000	336.3
340		The Citadel	SC	-25.5303	0.0000	328.3
341		North Florida	ASun	-26.0215	0.0000	339.1

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com