Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Mar 1, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.8430	1.0000	2.1
2	X	Tennessee	SEC	8.7018	1.0000	1.3
3		Duke	ACC	8.6311	1.0000	4.1
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	8.6011	1.0000	2.6
5	X	UCLA	P10	8.4333	1.0000	5.7
6		Texas	B12	7.5871	1.0000	5.5
7	X	Xavier	A10	7.4781	1.0000	7.1
8	X	Kansas	B12	7.4200	1.0000	9.2
9		Indiana	B10	7.2219	1.0000	12.6
10		Georgetown	BE	6.2349	1.0000	10.1
11		Louisville	BE	5.8766	1.0000	8.9
12		Stanford	P10	5.8096	1.0000	17.8
13		Connecticut	BE	5.6001	1.0000	12.6
14	X	Butler	Horz	5.5154	1.0000	19.3
15		Washington St.	P10	5.3878	1.0000	19.0
16	X	Wisconsin	B10	5.2260	1.0000	11.1
17	X	Drake	MVC	4.9612	1.0000	15.2
18		Notre Dame	BE	4.8568	1.0000	24.9
19	X	Marquette	BE	4.6731	1.0000	17.2
20		Michigan St.	B10	4.6041	1.0000	19.4
21		Clemson	ACC	4.3848	1.0000	21.9
22		Vanderbilt	SEC	4.0949	1.0000	12.5
23		Southern California	P10	3.6961	0.9999	32.0
24		Pittsburgh	BE	3.1976	0.9993	25.6
25	X	Gonzaga	WCC	3.1357	0.9991	27.5
26		Purdue	B10	3.0962	0.9990	37.0
27		Miami FL	ACC	3.0583	0.9989	25.3
28		Brigham Young	MWC	3.0247	0.9988	27.7
29	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.9033	0.9982	27.4
30		Arizona	P10	2.8891	0.9981	22.0
31		Oklahoma	B12	2.8270	0.9977	26.8
32		Illinois St.	MVC	2.7222	0.9968	39.3
33		Kent St.	MAC	2.5351	0.9944	45.9
34	X	South Alabama	SB	2.3864	0.9915	37.7
35		Baylor	B12	2.3610	0.9909	29.5
36		Mississippi St.	SEC	2.3354	0.9902	30.3
37		St. Mary's	WCC	2.2657	0.9883	36.2
38		Arkansas	SEC	2.1630	0.9847	34.2
39	X	Davidson	SC	1.5141	0.9350	50.3
40	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	1.2860	0.9008	49.8
41		West Virginia	BE	1.2437	0.8932	38.8
42		Massachusetts	A10	1.1483	0.8746	45.8
43		Texas A&M	B12	0.9986	0.8410	36.9
44		Kentucky	SEC	0.8041	0.7893	44.3
45		Kansas St.	B12	0.7646	0.7777	38.6
46		Dayton	A10	0.7047	0.7595	37.7
47		UAB	CUSA	0.5492	0.7086	53.0
48		Southern Illinois	MVC	0.5073	0.6940	49.3
49		Maryland	ACC	0.3228	0.6266	43.5
50		Saint Joseph's	A10	-0.1670	0.4337	56.5
51		Ohio St.	B10	-0.1792	0.4289	50.6
52		Texas Tech	B12	-0.3908	0.3480	45.8
53		Mississippi	SEC	-0.5405	0.2944	50.3
54		Virginia Tech	ACC	-0.5816	0.2804	63.0
55		Western Kentucky	SB	-0.7269	0.2337	57.6
56		Arizona St.	P10	-0.7697	0.2207	63.0
57		Florida	SEC	-0.8071	0.2098	49.4
58		Syracuse	BE	-0.8357	0.2017	43.2
59		Creighton	MVC	-0.9513	0.1707	56.5
60		Florida St.	ACC	-1.0174	0.1545	56.7
61		New Mexico	MWC	-1.0687	0.1426	58.8
62	X	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-1.1873	0.1175	70.9
63		Houston	CUSA	-1.4457	0.0741	60.7
64		Villanova	BE	-1.4472	0.0739	64.0
65		Wright St.	Horz	-1.4848	0.0688	70.3
66		George Mason	CAA	-1.4967	0.0672	79.5
67		Oral Roberts	Sum	-1.5881	0.0561	73.8
68		Oklahoma St.	B12	-1.6671	0.0477	63.0
69		Oregon	P10	-1.7260	0.0422	61.0
70	X	IUPUI	Sum	-1.9148	0.0278	91.3
71		Cincinnati	BE	-1.9793	0.0239	72.1
72		Rhode Island	A10	-1.9939	0.0231	60.3
73		Boise St.	WAC	-2.0121	0.0221	89.8
74		Ohio	MAC	-2.1578	0.0155	74.6
75	X	Cornell	Ivy	-2.1693	0.0150	86.3
76	X	Akron	MAC	-2.4570	0.0070	82.4
77		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.6704	0.0038	86.0
78	X	Siena	MAAC	-2.7979	0.0026	83.9
79		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.8602	0.0021	94.1
80		North Carolina St.	ACC	-2.8875	0.0019	75.9
81		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.9177	0.0018	72.2
82		Cleveland St.	Horz	-2.9243	0.0017	83.0
83		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.9927	0.0014	80.5
84		California	P10	-3.0355	0.0012	71.3
85		Temple	A10	-3.0899	0.0010	75.7
86		Belmont	ASun	-3.1449	0.0008	104.8
87		Nebraska	B12	-3.4043	0.0003	90.3
88		Seton Hall	BE	-3.4554	0.0003	71.1
89		Utah St.	WAC	-3.5631	0.0002	104.4
90		Wake Forest	ACC	-3.5706	0.0002	82.5
91	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-3.6574	0.0001	110.6
92		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-4.1727	0.0000	107.9
93		Miami OH	MAC	-4.2341	0.0000	83.2
94		Charlotte	A10	-4.3884	0.0000	97.5
95	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-4.5606	0.0000	109.7
96		Nevada	WAC	-4.5646	0.0000	93.6
97		Duquesne	A10	-4.6136	0.0000	93.5
98	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-4.6511	0.0000	117.2
99		Bradley	MVC	-4.6685	0.0000	91.7
100		Minnesota	B10	-4.8079	0.0000	89.5
101		Boston College	ACC	-4.9163	0.0000	85.3
102	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-5.0022	0.0000	103.3
103		Valparaiso	Horz	-5.0066	0.0000	109.9
104		Missouri	B12	-5.0270	0.0000	82.2
105		Old Dominion	CAA	-5.1540	0.0000	113.9
106		Richmond	A10	-5.1626	0.0000	112.9
107		American	Pat	-5.1779	0.0000	119.3
108	X	Portland St.	BSky	-5.1787	0.0000	131.2
109		Washington	P10	-5.3725	0.0000	85.9
110		Wagner	NEC	-5.5722	0.0000	129.7
111	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-5.8405	0.0000	122.2
112		Providence	BE	-5.9118	0.0000	95.0
113		Western Michigan	MAC	-6.1641	0.0000	138.3
114		Utah	MWC	-6.3047	0.0000	103.6
115		Middle Tennessee	SB	-6.4107	0.0000	121.6
116		St. Louis	A10	-6.4638	0.0000	106.0
117		Niagara	MAAC	-6.4966	0.0000	126.6
118		Marshall	CUSA	-6.5473	0.0000	114.3
119		Rider	MAAC	-6.5770	0.0000	132.4
120		Northern Iowa	MVC	-6.6754	0.0000	124.3
121		Pacific	BW	-6.8215	0.0000	139.3
122		Alabama	SEC	-6.8252	0.0000	94.2
123		South Carolina	SEC	-7.0336	0.0000	104.7
124		San Diego	WCC	-7.0599	0.0000	113.1
125		North Texas	SB	-7.0941	0.0000	143.1
126		Chattanooga	SC	-7.2627	0.0000	120.6
127	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.2945	0.0000	147.5
128	X	Winthrop	BSth	-7.3099	0.0000	137.0
129		Georgia Southern	SC	-7.3159	0.0000	131.8
130		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.3962	0.0000	139.9
131		NC Asheville	BSth	-7.4280	0.0000	145.3
132		Virginia	ACC	-7.5448	0.0000	104.5
133		Missouri St.	MVC	-7.5529	0.0000	107.6
134		Illinois	B10	-7.5978	0.0000	113.2
135		Brown	Ivy	-7.6025	0.0000	133.2
136		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-7.7898	0.0000	113.6
137		Indiana St.	MVC	-7.7995	0.0000	131.4
138		Northern Arizona	BSky	-7.8269	0.0000	151.5
139		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.9315	0.0000	124.8
140		Georgia	SEC	-7.9567	0.0000	118.2
141		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.0597	0.0000	136.0
142		Lamar	Slnd	-8.1062	0.0000	149.2
143		Marist	MAAC	-8.5813	0.0000	137.8
144		Loyola MD	MAAC	-8.5876	0.0000	163.5
145		Penn St.	B10	-8.6284	0.0000	128.8
146		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-8.7408	0.0000	146.0
147		Hampton	MEAC	-8.9124	0.0000	160.7
148		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-8.9472	0.0000	152.2
149		Appalachian St.	SC	-8.9516	0.0000	161.0
150		Sacred Heart	NEC	-9.2970	0.0000	173.1
151	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-9.3242	0.0000	148.9
152		NC Greensboro	SC	-9.3359	0.0000	153.7
153		St. John's	BE	-9.5054	0.0000	127.2
154		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-9.5904	0.0000	152.8
155		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9.7267	0.0000	148.8
156		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-9.7820	0.0000	159.4
157		Auburn	SEC	-9.9607	0.0000	133.9
158		Iowa St.	B12	-10.2238	0.0000	137.6
159		Fairfield	MAAC	-10.2318	0.0000	172.5
160		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-10.2632	0.0000	163.3
161		Oakland	Sum	-10.3967	0.0000	177.9
162		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-10.4115	0.0000	165.3
163		La Salle	A10	-10.4161	0.0000	168.5
164		Fordham	A10	-10.6038	0.0000	157.9
165		UC Irvine	BW	-10.6574	0.0000	171.7
166		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-10.7962	0.0000	182.9
167		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-10.8045	0.0000	178.6
168		Murray St.	OVC	-10.9382	0.0000	186.2
169		New Orleans	SB	-10.9585	0.0000	170.7
170		Quinnipiac	NEC	-11.0915	0.0000	190.3
171		DePaul	BE	-11.0939	0.0000	147.3
172		Colgate	Pat	-11.1045	0.0000	183.3
173		Lafayette	Pat	-11.1165	0.0000	176.2
174		George Washington	A10	-11.1635	0.0000	164.5
175		Tulane	CUSA	-11.1782	0.0000	159.2
176		Jacksonville	ASun	-11.2669	0.0000	187.8
177		Air Force	MWC	-11.5721	0.0000	167.0
178		William & Mary	CAA	-11.6403	0.0000	180.3
179		Michigan	B10	-11.8181	0.0000	162.3
180		Texas Christian	MWC	-11.8901	0.0000	171.8
181		Bowling Green	MAC	-11.9126	0.0000	182.4
182		Navy	Pat	-12.0375	0.0000	200.4
183		South Florida	BE	-12.0386	0.0000	155.1
184		Delaware	CAA	-12.2226	0.0000	182.4
185		Hartford	AE	-12.3269	0.0000	198.3
186		Iowa	B10	-12.3887	0.0000	171.6
187		Louisiana St.	SEC	-12.5314	0.0000	156.1
188		Central Michigan	MAC	-12.5822	0.0000	190.6
189		Albany	AE	-12.5971	0.0000	205.3
190		Long Island	NEC	-12.7341	0.0000	198.2
191		Weber St.	BSky	-12.7628	0.0000	207.1
192		Colorado	B12	-12.8585	0.0000	161.1
193		Northeastern	CAA	-12.8684	0.0000	187.5
194		Yale	Ivy	-12.9130	0.0000	194.5
195		Central Connecticut	NEC	-12.9750	0.0000	207.9
196		Gardner Webb	ASun	-13.0451	0.0000	213.9
197		Bucknell	Pat	-13.1768	0.0000	203.9
198	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-13.3266	0.0000	229.6
199		James Madison	CAA	-13.5090	0.0000	197.4
200		Columbia	Ivy	-13.6238	0.0000	208.6
201		College of Charleston	SC	-13.6444	0.0000	195.0
202		Wichita St.	MVC	-13.6853	0.0000	174.7
203		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.6892	0.0000	212.9
204		Santa Clara	WCC	-13.7209	0.0000	192.6
205		Lehigh	Pat	-13.7933	0.0000	214.5
206		North Dakota St.	Sum	-13.9875	0.0000	209.8
207		Iona	MAAC	-14.1370	0.0000	215.3
208		Vermont	AE	-14.1626	0.0000	220.4
209		Wofford	SC	-14.1856	0.0000	205.8
210		Wyoming	MWC	-14.2613	0.0000	188.9
211		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-14.2904	0.0000	219.1
212		Toledo	MAC	-14.2908	0.0000	205.3
213		East Carolina	CUSA	-14.2958	0.0000	223.1
214		Morehead St.	OVC	-14.4033	0.0000	230.0
215	X	Lipscomb	ASun	-14.4045	0.0000	228.1
216		Army	Pat	-14.5732	0.0000	223.0
217		Fresno St.	WAC	-14.5992	0.0000	194.9
218		Cal Poly	BW	-14.8539	0.0000	208.6
219		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-15.0062	0.0000	215.5
220		Binghamton	AE	-15.0333	0.0000	235.2
221		San Jose St.	WAC	-15.0935	0.0000	220.9
222		Hofstra	CAA	-15.2346	0.0000	219.6
223		Rutgers	BE	-15.2418	0.0000	192.0
224		Florida Atlantic	SB	-15.2469	0.0000	210.4
225		Montana	BSky	-15.3662	0.0000	235.2
226		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-15.4799	0.0000	239.2
227		Montana St.	BSky	-15.4955	0.0000	230.8
228		Towson	CAA	-15.5845	0.0000	223.7
229		Northwestern	B10	-15.6379	0.0000	191.9
230		Chicago St.	ind	-15.9489	0.0000	230.7
231		Pepperdine	WCC	-15.9726	0.0000	211.6
232		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.9734	0.0000	235.1
233		Boston University	AE	-16.0134	0.0000	243.8
234		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-16.0610	0.0000	237.6
235		Drexel	CAA	-16.1431	0.0000	214.7
236		Delaware St.	MEAC	-16.1564	0.0000	240.5
237		Southern Utah	Sum	-16.2504	0.0000	225.8
238		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-16.2705	0.0000	229.1
239		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.2912	0.0000	244.9
240		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.3961	0.0000	218.6
241		Stetson	ASun	-16.5219	0.0000	250.3
242		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-16.5840	0.0000	250.5
243		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-16.6036	0.0000	236.9
244		High Point	BSth	-16.7185	0.0000	250.6
245		Tennessee St.	OVC	-16.7466	0.0000	253.9
246		Hawaii	WAC	-16.7627	0.0000	241.4
247		Utah Valley St.	ind	-16.9503	0.0000	260.5
248		Florida International	SB	-17.4154	0.0000	225.6
249		Samford	OVC	-17.5705	0.0000	267.0
250		Denver	SB	-17.6118	0.0000	254.6
251		Elon	SC	-17.6318	0.0000	248.1
252		Texas St.	Slnd	-18.0466	0.0000	260.2
253		Liberty	BSth	-18.2260	0.0000	264.9
254		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.3023	0.0000	267.4
255		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-18.3442	0.0000	290.5
256		Idaho St.	BSky	-18.3610	0.0000	270.9
257		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-18.4345	0.0000	263.6
258		Evansville	MVC	-18.4659	0.0000	234.5
259		Texas Pan American	ind	-18.6454	0.0000	294.5
260		Troy	SB	-18.6550	0.0000	243.4
261		Manhattan	MAAC	-18.7274	0.0000	274.6
262		Florida A&M	MEAC	-18.7289	0.0000	268.0
263		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-18.7640	0.0000	279.3
264		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-18.7835	0.0000	279.6
265		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-18.8146	0.0000	254.7
266		Western Illinois	Sum	-18.8244	0.0000	258.8
267		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-18.8249	0.0000	253.2
268		Savannah St.	ind	-18.8695	0.0000	274.9
269		St. Bonaventure	A10	-19.0132	0.0000	240.6
270		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-19.0345	0.0000	260.0
271		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-19.0963	0.0000	287.8
272		Northern Colorado	BSky	-19.1074	0.0000	284.3
273		Arkansas St.	SB	-19.3485	0.0000	273.4
274		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.5928	0.0000	278.5
275		Jackson St.	SWAC	-19.7521	0.0000	286.3
276		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-19.8630	0.0000	258.8
277		Buffalo	MAC	-19.9339	0.0000	251.9
278		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-19.9603	0.0000	278.9
279		Coppin St.	MEAC	-20.0015	0.0000	279.9
280		Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.0365	0.0000	266.6
281		Detroit	Horz	-20.1067	0.0000	270.6
282		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.1212	0.0000	273.4
283		San Francisco	WCC	-20.1372	0.0000	263.7
284		Western Carolina	SC	-20.4310	0.0000	277.5
285		Harvard	Ivy	-20.4726	0.0000	286.7
286		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-20.5316	0.0000	297.7
287		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.5890	0.0000	283.3
288		New Hampshire	AE	-20.7674	0.0000	300.1
289		Oregon St.	P10	-20.8193	0.0000	249.4
290		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-21.2004	0.0000	302.2
291		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-21.2373	0.0000	289.0
292		Dartmouth	Ivy	-21.3670	0.0000	300.0
293		Furman	SC	-21.3892	0.0000	294.6
294		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-21.4169	0.0000	310.6
295		Centenary	Sum	-21.4799	0.0000	294.6
296		Ball St.	MAC	-21.4921	0.0000	281.0
297		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-21.4996	0.0000	314.3
298		UC Davis	BW	-21.5317	0.0000	294.5
299		Monmouth	NEC	-21.5605	0.0000	303.8
300		Campbell	ASun	-21.6349	0.0000	313.8
301		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.6449	0.0000	304.8
302		Idaho	WAC	-21.6593	0.0000	294.4
303		Radford	BSth	-21.6628	0.0000	312.7
304		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-21.7034	0.0000	306.5
305		UC Riverside	BW	-21.7472	0.0000	281.3
306		Colorado St.	MWC	-21.7707	0.0000	263.4
307		Mercer	ASun	-21.7879	0.0000	319.5
308		Southern	SWAC	-21.7906	0.0000	311.3
309		Rice	CUSA	-22.1305	0.0000	285.4
310		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-22.1374	0.0000	323.2
311		St. Peter's	MAAC	-22.1976	0.0000	301.1
312		St. Francis NY	NEC	-22.2389	0.0000	312.4
313		Portland	WCC	-22.4751	0.0000	290.7
314		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-22.6467	0.0000	325.4
315		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.6893	0.0000	303.8
316		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.7620	0.0000	319.5
317		Princeton	Ivy	-22.7740	0.0000	315.7
318		Grambling	SWAC	-22.8971	0.0000	328.3
319		Longwood	ind	-22.9111	0.0000	327.4
320		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.9480	0.0000	313.8
321		Texas Southern	SWAC	-22.9774	0.0000	318.8
322		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.9970	0.0000	324.8
323		St. Francis PA	NEC	-23.0664	0.0000	320.6
324		Long Beach St.	BW	-23.3150	0.0000	312.6
325		South Dakota St.	Sum	-23.5276	0.0000	313.8
326		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.5340	0.0000	336.2
327		Canisius	MAAC	-23.6859	0.0000	315.8
328		Maine	AE	-23.7236	0.0000	329.0
329		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.9021	0.0000	338.4
330		Howard	MEAC	-23.9811	0.0000	326.1
331		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.0043	0.0000	338.4
332		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-24.0941	0.0000	331.6
333		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-24.1607	0.0000	304.3
334		Stony Brook	AE	-24.3236	0.0000	330.9
335		Sacramento St.	BSky	-24.5598	0.0000	334.7
336		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.5794	0.0000	341.0
337		Presbyterian	ind	-24.8964	0.0000	332.3
338		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-25.1951	0.0000	325.5
339		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-25.6729	0.0000	337.1
340		North Florida	ASun	-25.7521	0.0000	339.8
341		The Citadel	SC	-26.0305	0.0000	334.1

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com