Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Jan 1, 2008.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.6791	1.0000	1.4
2		Duke	ACC	8.5557	1.0000	2.9
3	X	Kansas	B12	8.1408	1.0000	5.0
4	X	Memphis	CUSA	7.4309	1.0000	5.5
5	X	Tennessee	SEC	7.2655	1.0000	4.0
6	X	West Virginia	BE	7.2378	1.0000	9.6
7		Marquette	BE	6.4219	1.0000	11.9
8		Mississippi	SEC	6.0840	1.0000	11.2
9	X	Xavier	A10	5.8730	1.0000	12.5
10		Arizona	P10	5.7197	1.0000	9.0
11		Indiana	B10	5.6322	1.0000	16.2
12		Michigan St.	B10	5.1036	1.0000	14.9
13		Rhode Island	A10	5.0654	1.0000	18.0
14		Texas	B12	4.9932	1.0000	13.2
15		Clemson	ACC	4.9209	1.0000	18.4
16	X	UCLA	P10	4.7030	1.0000	21.5
17	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.6867	1.0000	18.8
18		Pittsburgh	BE	4.6564	1.0000	16.7
19		Texas A&M	B12	4.4972	1.0000	20.4
20		Georgetown	BE	4.2033	1.0000	25.1
21		Washington St.	P10	4.1448	1.0000	23.8
22		Oklahoma	B12	4.0660	1.0000	20.5
23	X	Butler	Horz	3.8244	0.9999	33.0
24		St. Mary's	WCC	3.2828	0.9995	31.3
25		Vanderbilt	SEC	2.9606	0.9985	21.6
26	X	Gonzaga	WCC	2.8629	0.9979	35.2
27		Dayton	A10	2.7742	0.9972	27.4
28	X	Drake	MVC	2.6983	0.9965	34.7
29		Miami FL	ACC	2.6572	0.9961	27.8
30		Southern California	P10	2.4890	0.9936	35.6
31		Stanford	P10	2.4884	0.9936	31.5
32		Ohio St.	B10	2.4228	0.9923	30.2
33		Syracuse	BE	2.3266	0.9900	25.0
34		Florida St.	ACC	2.2925	0.9891	31.6
35		Baylor	B12	2.2241	0.9869	33.4
36		Arkansas	SEC	2.2223	0.9869	33.2
37	X	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.7497	0.9599	32.6
38		New Mexico	MWC	1.2886	0.9012	47.3
39		Connecticut	BE	1.0634	0.8562	36.3
40		Duquesne	A10	1.0302	0.8485	47.8
41		Notre Dame	BE	0.9989	0.8411	44.9
42		Illinois St.	MVC	0.8619	0.8056	49.6
43		California	P10	0.8259	0.7956	40.1
44		Florida	SEC	0.4669	0.6797	48.5
45		Massachusetts	A10	0.1443	0.5574	49.8
46		Kent St.	MAC	0.1355	0.5539	59.5
47		Brigham Young	MWC	0.0797	0.5317	56.8
48		Oregon	P10	-0.0010	0.4996	48.3
49		Providence	BE	-0.0166	0.4934	48.9
50		Minnesota	B10	-0.2195	0.4131	50.2
51		George Mason	CAA	-0.3948	0.3465	65.4
52	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-0.4068	0.3421	61.8
53	X	Miami OH	MAC	-0.4490	0.3267	63.0
54	X	South Alabama	SB	-0.5622	0.2870	66.5
55		Missouri	B12	-0.6131	0.2699	52.2
56		Creighton	MVC	-0.7008	0.2417	58.8
57	X	Winthrop	BSth	-0.8159	0.2073	75.9
58		UAB	CUSA	-0.8278	0.2039	57.4
59		Valparaiso	Horz	-1.0583	0.1450	68.4
60	X	Texas Arlington	Slnd	-1.2735	0.1014	76.3
61		Illinois	B10	-1.2921	0.0982	64.5
62		Mississippi St.	SEC	-1.3131	0.0946	56.7
63		Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-1.3340	0.0911	70.3
64	X	Siena	MAAC	-1.4263	0.0769	77.3
65		Virginia	ACC	-1.6142	0.0532	63.0
66		Louisville	BE	-1.6928	0.0452	62.3
67		Houston	CUSA	-1.8829	0.0299	69.8
68		Utah	MWC	-1.9262	0.0270	66.4
69	X	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-1.9910	0.0232	82.2
70		Villanova	BE	-2.0749	0.0190	65.8
71		Saint Joseph's	A10	-2.0817	0.0187	62.4
72		San Diego St.	MWC	-2.2184	0.0133	62.4
73		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.2353	0.0127	82.6
74		Western Kentucky	SB	-2.3475	0.0094	85.8
75		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-2.4311	0.0075	71.3
76		Nevada	WAC	-2.7023	0.0034	79.7
77		Boston College	ACC	-2.7481	0.0030	58.6
78		Arizona St.	P10	-2.8308	0.0023	68.7
79		North Texas	SB	-2.8546	0.0022	89.4
80	X	Davidson	SC	-3.0871	0.0010	100.4
81		Georgia Southern	SC	-3.0876	0.0010	92.1
82		Ohio	MAC	-3.0917	0.0010	80.1
83		Niagara	MAAC	-3.1413	0.0008	94.6
84		North Carolina St.	ACC	-3.1676	0.0008	77.4
85		Georgia Tech	ACC	-3.2760	0.0005	74.8
86		Southern Illinois	MVC	-3.2921	0.0005	81.7
87		South Carolina	SEC	-3.3215	0.0004	71.2
88		Kansas St.	B12	-3.3683	0.0004	72.3
89		South Florida	BE	-3.3967	0.0003	88.0
90		Wright St.	Horz	-3.5237	0.0002	93.6
91		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-3.6262	0.0001	95.1
92	X	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-3.8504	0.0001	99.9
93		Akron	MAC	-3.8552	0.0001	93.4
94		Virginia Tech	ACC	-3.8589	0.0001	83.9
95		Nebraska	B12	-3.9505	0.0000	91.3
96		Alabama	SEC	-3.9640	0.0000	76.4
97		Oklahoma St.	B12	-4.1852	0.0000	82.2
98	X	IUPUI	Sum	-4.4278	0.0000	119.2
99		Boise St.	WAC	-4.5029	0.0000	111.3
100		Texas Tech	B12	-4.9022	0.0000	85.5
101		Oral Roberts	Sum	-4.9104	0.0000	118.5
102		Kentucky	SEC	-4.9867	0.0000	93.5
103		James Madison	CAA	-5.1156	0.0000	116.1
104	X	Hampton	MEAC	-5.1911	0.0000	115.6
105		Cleveland St.	Horz	-5.1972	0.0000	101.7
106	X	MD Baltimore County	AE	-5.2739	0.0000	121.4
107		Temple	A10	-5.3785	0.0000	97.4
108		Washington	P10	-5.4398	0.0000	90.9
109		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-5.6251	0.0000	107.0
110		Wake Forest	ACC	-5.6925	0.0000	107.7
111		Charlotte	A10	-5.7123	0.0000	112.8
112		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-6.1277	0.0000	108.1
113	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-6.4484	0.0000	118.3
114		Central Florida	CUSA	-6.5218	0.0000	113.4
115		Tulane	CUSA	-6.5927	0.0000	117.6
116		Pacific	BW	-6.6844	0.0000	131.1
117		Maryland	ACC	-6.8151	0.0000	96.5
118		Wichita St.	MVC	-6.8838	0.0000	109.2
119		Old Dominion	CAA	-6.9618	0.0000	121.3
120		Chattanooga	SC	-6.9658	0.0000	128.0
121		Seton Hall	BE	-7.0816	0.0000	104.9
122		Northern Iowa	MVC	-7.1710	0.0000	124.9
123		Fresno St.	WAC	-7.2547	0.0000	124.6
124		Utah St.	WAC	-7.3593	0.0000	134.3
125	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-7.5735	0.0000	149.3
126		Penn St.	B10	-7.6862	0.0000	119.9
127		Northern Arizona	BSky	-7.7381	0.0000	150.4
128		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-7.7448	0.0000	133.8
129	X	Brown	Ivy	-7.8246	0.0000	141.1
130		Marist	MAAC	-7.9774	0.0000	135.6
131		Purdue	B10	-8.0084	0.0000	131.3
132		Tulsa	CUSA	-8.0403	0.0000	135.9
133		Morgan St.	MEAC	-8.0715	0.0000	154.4
134		Long Island	NEC	-8.2110	0.0000	150.3
135		St. Louis	A10	-8.5415	0.0000	124.6
136		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-8.5705	0.0000	132.0
137	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.6143	0.0000	152.6
138	X	Montana St.	BSky	-8.6155	0.0000	151.0
139		Bradley	MVC	-8.6878	0.0000	124.6
140		St. John's	BE	-8.7063	0.0000	114.0
141		Santa Clara	WCC	-8.8601	0.0000	139.0
142		New Orleans	SB	-8.9652	0.0000	153.8
143		Marshall	CUSA	-9.1067	0.0000	140.3
144		NC Greensboro	SC	-9.1118	0.0000	157.1
145	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-9.1293	0.0000	161.8
146		Louisiana St.	SEC	-9.1896	0.0000	125.9
147		Cornell	Ivy	-9.2075	0.0000	165.1
148		College of Charleston	SC	-9.2423	0.0000	151.0
149		Lafayette	Pat	-9.3641	0.0000	158.5
150		Missouri St.	MVC	-9.3658	0.0000	131.3
151		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-9.4063	0.0000	171.6
152		Belmont	ASun	-9.4562	0.0000	174.2
153		Cincinnati	BE	-9.5731	0.0000	135.4
154		Georgia	SEC	-9.8017	0.0000	137.4
155		Central Michigan	MAC	-9.8859	0.0000	160.8
156		Colorado	B12	-9.9377	0.0000	136.4
157		NC Asheville	BSth	-10.0024	0.0000	166.2
158		Auburn	SEC	-10.0476	0.0000	136.5
159		American	Pat	-10.1088	0.0000	166.9
160		Northeastern	CAA	-10.1196	0.0000	158.9
161		Appalachian St.	SC	-10.4003	0.0000	177.8
162		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-10.5050	0.0000	168.2
163		NC Wilmington	CAA	-10.5301	0.0000	167.0
164		Rider	MAAC	-10.5824	0.0000	173.0
165		Troy	SB	-10.5875	0.0000	165.0
166		Portland St.	BSky	-10.6545	0.0000	182.0
167		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-10.7709	0.0000	167.5
168		UC Irvine	BW	-10.8503	0.0000	162.2
169		Oakland	Sum	-10.8575	0.0000	184.7
170		DePaul	BE	-10.9726	0.0000	140.9
171		San Diego	WCC	-11.0177	0.0000	151.4
172		Albany	AE	-11.0289	0.0000	189.3
173		Montana	BSky	-11.0349	0.0000	182.5
174		Tennessee St.	OVC	-11.1543	0.0000	194.9
175		North Dakota St.	Sum	-11.2496	0.0000	181.5
176		Iowa St.	B12	-11.2828	0.0000	140.9
177		Wagner	NEC	-11.2854	0.0000	188.3
178		Yale	Ivy	-11.3197	0.0000	180.4
179		Sacred Heart	NEC	-11.4629	0.0000	194.9
180		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-11.6797	0.0000	184.2
181		Colgate	Pat	-11.9228	0.0000	185.6
182		Michigan	B10	-12.0219	0.0000	155.1
183		Western Michigan	MAC	-12.0848	0.0000	189.3
184		Gardner Webb	ASun	-12.1349	0.0000	199.8
185		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-12.4132	0.0000	204.7
186		Toledo	MAC	-12.4479	0.0000	182.1
187		Wofford	SC	-12.5170	0.0000	189.6
188		Denver	SB	-12.5560	0.0000	200.4
189	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-12.6017	0.0000	219.2
190		Richmond	A10	-12.6534	0.0000	178.3
191		Fordham	A10	-12.6848	0.0000	171.1
192		Bucknell	Pat	-12.7964	0.0000	195.4
193		Drexel	CAA	-12.8026	0.0000	184.1
194		Colorado St.	MWC	-12.9635	0.0000	164.5
195		East Carolina	CUSA	-13.1357	0.0000	195.3
196		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.3041	0.0000	187.9
197		Indiana St.	MVC	-13.3872	0.0000	173.1
198		William & Mary	CAA	-13.5437	0.0000	203.8
199		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.5531	0.0000	206.1
200		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-13.6309	0.0000	211.3
201		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-13.7614	0.0000	192.7
202		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-13.8514	0.0000	184.0
203		Northwestern	B10	-14.0188	0.0000	183.1
204		Liberty	BSth	-14.4544	0.0000	218.4
205		Columbia	Ivy	-14.4680	0.0000	225.0
206		Iona	MAAC	-14.6622	0.0000	217.5
207		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-14.6805	0.0000	219.9
208		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-14.7023	0.0000	236.1
209		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-14.8516	0.0000	223.8
210		Murray St.	OVC	-14.9305	0.0000	232.7
211		Iowa	B10	-15.0080	0.0000	198.9
212		Air Force	MWC	-15.1061	0.0000	197.5
213		Wyoming	MWC	-15.1072	0.0000	191.1
214		Manhattan	MAAC	-15.1667	0.0000	230.8
215		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.2436	0.0000	233.9
216		Rutgers	BE	-15.3363	0.0000	184.3
217		Texas Christian	MWC	-15.3424	0.0000	197.8
218		Delaware	CAA	-15.3743	0.0000	223.3
219		George Washington	A10	-15.3842	0.0000	204.4
220		San Jose St.	WAC	-15.3913	0.0000	228.1
221		Buffalo	MAC	-15.4259	0.0000	212.2
222		Weber St.	BSky	-15.4915	0.0000	229.3
223		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.5817	0.0000	234.6
224		Lehigh	Pat	-15.5838	0.0000	234.3
225		Fairfield	MAAC	-15.6814	0.0000	224.2
226		Middle Tennessee	SB	-15.7305	0.0000	220.9
227		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-15.9126	0.0000	238.6
228		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.9314	0.0000	249.3
229		Utah Valley St.	ind	-15.9570	0.0000	255.1
230		Harvard	Ivy	-15.9949	0.0000	236.7
231		St. Bonaventure	A10	-16.1085	0.0000	212.9
232		La Salle	A10	-16.1995	0.0000	219.6
233		High Point	BSth	-16.3876	0.0000	241.3
234		Detroit	Horz	-16.4708	0.0000	227.4
235		Quinnipiac	NEC	-16.4821	0.0000	251.5
236		Youngstown St.	Horz	-16.4833	0.0000	212.8
237		New Hampshire	AE	-16.5026	0.0000	252.0
238		Oregon St.	P10	-16.6189	0.0000	202.6
239		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-16.6715	0.0000	250.0
240		Cal Poly	BW	-16.6930	0.0000	232.4
241		Portland	WCC	-16.7200	0.0000	228.1
242		Bowling Green	MAC	-16.7362	0.0000	225.8
243		Hartford	AE	-16.8112	0.0000	240.4
244		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-16.8233	0.0000	237.0
245		Southern Utah	Sum	-16.8331	0.0000	243.6
246		Elon	SC	-16.9004	0.0000	243.8
247		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.9065	0.0000	254.5
248		Vermont	AE	-16.9450	0.0000	251.9
249		Loyola MD	MAAC	-17.0239	0.0000	240.8
250		Hawaii	WAC	-17.0401	0.0000	240.5
251		Mercer	ASun	-17.0468	0.0000	264.6
252		Lamar	Slnd	-17.0730	0.0000	250.9
253		Boston University	AE	-17.1176	0.0000	251.5
254		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-17.2446	0.0000	230.2
255		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-17.2952	0.0000	264.1
256		Eastern Washington	BSky	-17.3510	0.0000	250.7
257		Central Connecticut	NEC	-17.3530	0.0000	257.7
258		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-17.5085	0.0000	273.5
259		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-17.5467	0.0000	260.2
260		San Francisco	WCC	-17.5584	0.0000	234.3
261		Hofstra	CAA	-17.7356	0.0000	248.8
262		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-17.7605	0.0000	261.1
263		Navy	Pat	-17.7943	0.0000	260.7
264		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-17.8276	0.0000	265.6
265		St. Peter's	MAAC	-17.9901	0.0000	255.0
266		Arkansas St.	SB	-18.0333	0.0000	257.7
267		Army	Pat	-18.0571	0.0000	256.8
268		Centenary	Sum	-18.4398	0.0000	266.1
269		Delaware St.	MEAC	-18.6771	0.0000	270.8
270		Chicago St.	ind	-18.7992	0.0000	265.5
271		Binghamton	AE	-18.9271	0.0000	284.1
272		Evansville	MVC	-18.9419	0.0000	233.2
273		South Dakota St.	Sum	-19.1631	0.0000	278.1
274		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-19.1915	0.0000	293.9
275		St. Francis NY	NEC	-19.2369	0.0000	280.0
276		Southern	SWAC	-19.2751	0.0000	283.5
277		St. Francis PA	NEC	-19.3382	0.0000	282.7
278		Princeton	Ivy	-19.4857	0.0000	287.5
279		UC Davis	BW	-19.4924	0.0000	275.7
280		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-19.6368	0.0000	290.1
281		Samford	OVC	-19.6923	0.0000	291.0
282		Coppin St.	MEAC	-19.6982	0.0000	273.8
283		Morehead St.	OVC	-19.7022	0.0000	287.0
284		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-19.8086	0.0000	283.5
285		Towson	CAA	-19.8208	0.0000	278.1
286		Florida Atlantic	SB	-19.8294	0.0000	265.7
287		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-19.8350	0.0000	283.2
288		Texas St.	Slnd	-19.9948	0.0000	276.7
289		Stetson	ASun	-20.0597	0.0000	284.3
290		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-20.3008	0.0000	264.6
291		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-20.3335	0.0000	305.1
292		Campbell	ASun	-20.4225	0.0000	300.1
293		Long Beach St.	BW	-20.5845	0.0000	282.3
294		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-20.6633	0.0000	300.5
295		Rice	CUSA	-20.6677	0.0000	268.8
296		UC Riverside	BW	-20.9880	0.0000	272.8
297		Dartmouth	Ivy	-20.9894	0.0000	302.5
298		Savannah St.	ind	-21.1354	0.0000	305.1
299		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.3014	0.0000	318.2
300		Western Carolina	SC	-21.3183	0.0000	290.6
301		Monmouth	NEC	-21.3350	0.0000	302.4
302		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-21.4500	0.0000	310.3
303		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-21.4641	0.0000	297.5
304		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-21.5078	0.0000	284.7
305		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-21.6012	0.0000	300.9
306		Ball St.	MAC	-21.7822	0.0000	285.5
307		Georgia St.	CAA	-21.8777	0.0000	290.1
308		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.8879	0.0000	323.6
309		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-21.9777	0.0000	319.2
310		Radford	BSth	-22.0350	0.0000	307.9
311		Idaho	WAC	-22.0666	0.0000	299.3
312		Florida International	SB	-22.0812	0.0000	287.3
313		Texas Southern	SWAC	-22.0986	0.0000	309.8
314		Stony Brook	AE	-22.2161	0.0000	317.2
315		Jackson St.	SWAC	-22.2723	0.0000	312.2
316		Charleston Southern	BSth	-22.2899	0.0000	310.2
317		Western Illinois	Sum	-22.4773	0.0000	305.1
318		Canisius	MAAC	-22.5849	0.0000	308.0
319		Northern Illinois	MAC	-22.7762	0.0000	299.1
320		Maine	AE	-22.7997	0.0000	315.4
321		Longwood	ind	-22.8427	0.0000	326.4
322		Furman	SC	-22.8858	0.0000	310.9
323		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-23.1104	0.0000	308.7
324		Sacramento St.	BSky	-23.1454	0.0000	318.9
325		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.2131	0.0000	315.4
326		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-23.3894	0.0000	330.7
327		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-23.4097	0.0000	293.7
328		North Carolina Central	ind	-23.5935	0.0000	321.2
329		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.7566	0.0000	336.6
330		Idaho St.	BSky	-23.8987	0.0000	322.9
331		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-23.9223	0.0000	336.4
332		The Citadel	SC	-23.9650	0.0000	315.1
333		Presbyterian	ind	-24.0097	0.0000	327.0
334		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-24.0545	0.0000	340.8
335		Howard	MEAC	-24.1459	0.0000	325.2
336		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-24.1649	0.0000	332.5
337		Grambling	SWAC	-24.3041	0.0000	337.0
338		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-24.3361	0.0000	338.1
339		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-24.4245	0.0000	318.6
340		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-24.4984	0.0000	336.8
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.0170	0.0000	337.6

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com