Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Chart showing how the projected bids have changed over time for each team
Tournament Projections Archive
Click here for my best guess at the seeding given the bids below.

Through games of Dec 1, 2007.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	North Carolina	ACC	9.6699	1.0000	1.5
2		Duke	ACC	9.1458	1.0000	2.0
3	X	UCLA	P10	7.4029	1.0000	6.5
4	X	Kansas	B12	7.3082	1.0000	6.7
5	X	Xavier	A10	7.0859	1.0000	6.1
6	X	West Virginia	BE	6.8061	1.0000	10.4
7	X	Memphis	CUSA	6.4168	1.0000	10.6
8		Tennessee	SEC	6.1343	1.0000	8.1
9		Texas	B12	5.7346	1.0000	8.4
10		Indiana	B10	5.2346	1.0000	20.3
11		Louisville	BE	4.9529	1.0000	16.8
12		Pittsburgh	BE	4.8564	1.0000	17.0
13	X	Florida	SEC	4.6294	1.0000	21.6
14	X	Gonzaga	WCC	4.5237	1.0000	22.9
15	X	Wisconsin	B10	4.5133	1.0000	23.2
16		Southern California	P10	4.3750	1.0000	22.3
17		Clemson	ACC	4.1838	1.0000	21.2
18		Texas A&M	B12	4.0233	1.0000	22.2
19		Michigan St.	B10	3.8189	0.9999	23.3
20	X	Butler	Horz	3.7009	0.9999	32.2
21		Marquette	BE	3.6869	0.9999	24.8
22		Vanderbilt	SEC	3.1910	0.9993	24.5
23		Providence	BE	3.1641	0.9992	26.6
24	X	Brigham Young	MWC	3.1053	0.9990	30.2
25		Mississippi	SEC	3.0924	0.9990	30.6
26		Stanford	P10	2.9468	0.9984	29.3
27		Oregon	P10	2.7664	0.9972	28.4
28		Virginia	ACC	2.7289	0.9968	28.9
29		Washington St.	P10	2.6557	0.9960	30.8
30		Georgetown	BE	2.5998	0.9953	33.6
31		Florida St.	ACC	2.4473	0.9928	30.9
32		Arizona	P10	2.4354	0.9926	23.4
33	X	George Mason	CAA	2.0502	0.9798	40.0
34	X	Creighton	MVC	1.8720	0.9694	39.8
35		Arkansas	SEC	1.6637	0.9519	32.6
36		Villanova	BE	1.5991	0.9451	40.1
37		California	P10	1.4960	0.9327	36.3
38		Kentucky	SEC	1.3960	0.9186	38.8
39		Duquesne	A10	1.0457	0.8522	50.6
40		Oklahoma	B12	0.8748	0.8092	43.3
41	X	Miami OH	MAC	0.8619	0.8056	50.6
42		Rhode Island	A10	0.8149	0.7924	42.2
43	X	Davidson	SC	0.6073	0.7282	63.4
44		Illinois	B10	0.5767	0.7179	43.8
45		Miami FL	ACC	0.3693	0.6441	39.4
46		New Mexico	MWC	0.2972	0.6168	50.1
47		Connecticut	BE	0.2732	0.6077	42.6
48		Missouri St.	MVC	0.2044	0.5810	54.9
49		Baylor	B12	0.0917	0.5365	47.2
50		Southern Illinois	MVC	0.0381	0.5152	50.9
51		Dayton	A10	0.0215	0.5086	47.3
52		Boston College	ACC	-0.0592	0.4764	44.4
53		Notre Dame	BE	-0.0728	0.4710	52.7
54		Missouri	B12	-0.1172	0.4534	52.3
55		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	-0.4389	0.3304	50.9
56	X	Holy Cross	Pat	-0.5022	0.3078	58.1
57		St. Mary's	WCC	-0.6705	0.2513	68.6
58		Ohio St.	B10	-0.6889	0.2454	59.1
59		Syracuse	BE	-0.8653	0.1934	49.2
60		San Diego St.	MWC	-1.0896	0.1379	55.4
61		Maryland	ACC	-1.1571	0.1236	52.7
62		Oklahoma St.	B12	-1.5468	0.0610	58.4
63		Massachusetts	A10	-1.7152	0.0432	63.8
64		Arizona St.	P10	-1.8298	0.0336	63.7
65		Western Kentucky	SB	-1.8543	0.0318	82.4
66		Kent St.	MAC	-1.8727	0.0306	78.3
67	X	South Alabama	SB	-1.9290	0.0269	77.1
68		North Carolina St.	ACC	-1.9817	0.0238	68.3
69		Northern Iowa	MVC	-2.0602	0.0197	74.8
70	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-2.0956	0.0181	81.6
71		Georgia Tech	ACC	-2.4490	0.0072	73.1
72		Mississippi St.	SEC	-2.4827	0.0065	64.6
73	X	Winthrop	BSth	-2.4889	0.0064	86.6
74		Saint Joseph's	A10	-2.5803	0.0049	69.4
75		Houston	CUSA	-2.6834	0.0036	82.1
76		Drake	MVC	-2.8141	0.0024	79.9
77		Minnesota	B10	-2.9261	0.0017	76.8
78		Illinois St.	MVC	-2.9352	0.0017	78.2
79	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-3.2742	0.0005	94.6
80		UAB	CUSA	-3.3171	0.0005	83.1
81		Texas El Paso	CUSA	-3.3506	0.0004	86.3
82		Kansas St.	B12	-3.5559	0.0002	74.2
83		North Texas	SB	-3.6081	0.0002	101.6
84		South Carolina	SEC	-3.6551	0.0001	75.8
85		Texas Tech	B12	-3.6964	0.0001	74.1
86		Louisiana St.	SEC	-3.8365	0.0001	80.1
87		Temple	A10	-3.8575	0.0001	87.3
88	X	Nevada	WAC	-3.9578	0.0000	96.2
89	X	Siena	MAAC	-4.0314	0.0000	104.0
90		Seton Hall	BE	-4.0696	0.0000	75.5
91		Old Dominion	CAA	-4.0795	0.0000	92.5
92		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-4.1783	0.0000	103.0
93		Valparaiso	Horz	-4.2353	0.0000	97.1
94		Bradley	MVC	-4.4579	0.0000	88.6
95		Purdue	B10	-4.8222	0.0000	97.1
96		St. John's	BE	-4.8301	0.0000	84.4
97		Georgia Southern	SC	-4.8881	0.0000	108.3
98		Pacific	BW	-5.0702	0.0000	112.1
99		Ohio	MAC	-5.2476	0.0000	105.0
100		Drexel	CAA	-5.4040	0.0000	106.5
101	X	Montana	BSky	-5.4615	0.0000	117.7
102		Virginia Tech	ACC	-5.4647	0.0000	93.7
103		St. Louis	A10	-5.4820	0.0000	92.3
104		Alabama	SEC	-5.5926	0.0000	89.1
105		James Madison	CAA	-5.7600	0.0000	117.7
106	X	Belmont	ASun	-5.8385	0.0000	133.0
107	X	Hampton	MEAC	-5.8859	0.0000	121.9
108		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-6.0020	0.0000	117.4
109		Utah	MWC	-6.0250	0.0000	101.5
110		Santa Clara	WCC	-6.0584	0.0000	118.6
111		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-6.1450	0.0000	126.4
112		George Washington	A10	-6.1721	0.0000	114.0
113		Georgia	SEC	-6.2074	0.0000	98.6
114	X	North Dakota St.	Sum	-6.2515	0.0000	135.2
115		Portland St.	BSky	-6.3021	0.0000	129.5
116	X	Albany	AE	-6.7055	0.0000	138.2
117		Oral Roberts	Sum	-6.7818	0.0000	135.8
118		MD Baltimore County	AE	-6.8761	0.0000	132.8
119		Wichita St.	MVC	-6.8805	0.0000	105.3
120		Charlotte	A10	-6.8924	0.0000	113.7
121		Washington	P10	-7.0335	0.0000	106.3
122		IUPUI	Sum	-7.0654	0.0000	144.0
123		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-7.1285	0.0000	122.9
124		Nebraska	B12	-7.1888	0.0000	116.9
125		Akron	MAC	-7.2304	0.0000	131.4
126		Central Florida	CUSA	-7.2605	0.0000	132.8
127	X	Austin Peay	OVC	-7.4985	0.0000	151.3
128		Wright St.	Horz	-7.5314	0.0000	133.8
129		Marist	MAAC	-7.6054	0.0000	135.4
130		Colorado	B12	-7.6613	0.0000	114.7
131		New Mexico St.	WAC	-7.8200	0.0000	136.7
132		Morgan St.	MEAC	-7.8239	0.0000	149.6
133		Wake Forest	ACC	-7.8386	0.0000	121.2
134		Air Force	MWC	-7.9122	0.0000	126.1
135		Boise St.	WAC	-7.9554	0.0000	144.4
136		NC Wilmington	CAA	-7.9850	0.0000	133.8
137		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-7.9872	0.0000	150.6
138		Auburn	SEC	-8.0139	0.0000	121.9
139		Northeastern	CAA	-8.1373	0.0000	129.7
140	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-8.4128	0.0000	153.8
141		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-8.5114	0.0000	135.3
142		Wagner	NEC	-8.5118	0.0000	159.0
143		Oakland	Sum	-8.5683	0.0000	153.2
144		Marshall	CUSA	-8.5889	0.0000	143.8
145		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.6592	0.0000	149.3
146		Texas Christian	MWC	-8.6658	0.0000	128.8
147		Northern Arizona	BSky	-8.6715	0.0000	159.1
148		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-8.7313	0.0000	150.7
149		Cleveland St.	Horz	-8.7807	0.0000	146.0
150		Colorado St.	MWC	-8.9274	0.0000	128.3
151		Cal Poly	BW	-8.9484	0.0000	147.7
152		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-9.1421	0.0000	153.7
153		Bucknell	Pat	-9.3166	0.0000	158.7
154		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-9.3421	0.0000	161.8
155		South Florida	BE	-9.4237	0.0000	137.4
156		College of Charleston	SC	-9.4728	0.0000	157.6
157		Manhattan	MAAC	-9.4736	0.0000	172.9
158		DePaul	BE	-9.5992	0.0000	128.6
159		Hawaii	WAC	-9.7802	0.0000	164.1
160		Michigan	B10	-9.9831	0.0000	136.1
161		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-10.3903	0.0000	165.6
162		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-10.5018	0.0000	166.7
163		New Orleans	SB	-10.5090	0.0000	176.2
164		Niagara	MAAC	-10.5195	0.0000	175.7
165		New Hampshire	AE	-10.5901	0.0000	174.4
166		Murray St.	OVC	-10.6429	0.0000	184.7
167		San Diego	WCC	-10.6483	0.0000	152.1
168	X	Brown	Ivy	-10.6794	0.0000	173.3
169		Utah St.	WAC	-10.7361	0.0000	178.8
170		Harvard	Ivy	-10.7397	0.0000	172.3
171		Detroit	Horz	-10.7917	0.0000	173.9
172		San Francisco	WCC	-10.9324	0.0000	162.5
173		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-11.0809	0.0000	182.4
174		Tulane	CUSA	-11.0892	0.0000	173.3
175		Iowa St.	B12	-11.1320	0.0000	143.9
176		Hofstra	CAA	-11.1452	0.0000	171.2
177		NC Asheville	BSth	-11.1969	0.0000	183.4
178		Chattanooga	SC	-11.2264	0.0000	172.7
179		Appalachian St.	SC	-11.2974	0.0000	180.3
180		Gardner Webb	ASun	-11.3407	0.0000	185.7
181		Fordham	A10	-11.3633	0.0000	154.0
182		Fresno St.	WAC	-11.5113	0.0000	176.7
183		Toledo	MAC	-11.6319	0.0000	177.5
184		Rutgers	BE	-11.7136	0.0000	153.4
185		Monmouth	NEC	-11.9757	0.0000	197.1
186		Vermont	AE	-12.1215	0.0000	196.2
187		Yale	Ivy	-12.1653	0.0000	192.5
188		Utah Valley St.	ind	-12.4401	0.0000	211.8
189		Long Island	NEC	-12.5536	0.0000	197.9
190		Penn St.	B10	-12.6344	0.0000	170.0
191		Rider	MAAC	-12.8802	0.0000	202.5
192		American	Pat	-12.9339	0.0000	198.5
193		Cornell	Ivy	-13.0723	0.0000	209.2
194		Lafayette	Pat	-13.0952	0.0000	203.3
195		Tulsa	CUSA	-13.2347	0.0000	195.3
196		St. Francis NY	NEC	-13.4444	0.0000	216.1
197		UC Irvine	BW	-13.4939	0.0000	199.1
198		Montana St.	BSky	-13.7140	0.0000	209.5
199		Pepperdine	WCC	-13.7169	0.0000	195.7
200		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.8202	0.0000	199.8
201		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-13.8567	0.0000	196.2
202		St. Peter's	MAAC	-13.8731	0.0000	213.4
203		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.9210	0.0000	215.0
204		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-13.9815	0.0000	211.9
205		Youngstown St.	Horz	-14.0558	0.0000	201.6
206		Colgate	Pat	-14.0970	0.0000	211.3
207		Loyola MD	MAAC	-14.1554	0.0000	212.3
208	X	Alabama St.	SWAC	-14.1775	0.0000	235.1
209		Indiana St.	MVC	-14.2663	0.0000	177.2
210		Richmond	A10	-14.4314	0.0000	202.6
211		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-14.4322	0.0000	227.4
212		Wyoming	MWC	-14.4623	0.0000	194.3
213		Cincinnati	BE	-14.5110	0.0000	172.8
214		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-14.5531	0.0000	219.8
215		Princeton	Ivy	-14.6468	0.0000	226.2
216		NC Greensboro	SC	-14.6947	0.0000	217.6
217		Elon	SC	-14.8803	0.0000	222.8
218		Iowa	B10	-14.9363	0.0000	197.0
219		High Point	BSth	-14.9481	0.0000	230.9
220		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-14.9852	0.0000	231.8
221		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-15.0150	0.0000	222.6
222		Hartford	AE	-15.0314	0.0000	221.2
223		Central Connecticut	NEC	-15.0919	0.0000	237.6
224		Delaware St.	MEAC	-15.0940	0.0000	232.3
225		Jacksonville	ASun	-15.1484	0.0000	233.9
226		Centenary	Sum	-15.1612	0.0000	230.3
227		Oregon St.	P10	-15.1924	0.0000	191.3
228		Middle Tennessee	SB	-15.2663	0.0000	220.7
229		William & Mary	CAA	-15.3967	0.0000	218.1
230		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-15.4461	0.0000	221.1
231		McNeese St.	Slnd	-15.4952	0.0000	235.0
232		Fairfield	MAAC	-15.5106	0.0000	230.5
233		Troy	SB	-15.6213	0.0000	223.1
234		Arkansas St.	SB	-15.6526	0.0000	234.3
235		Lipscomb	ASun	-15.6692	0.0000	245.9
236		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-15.8136	0.0000	236.2
237		Boston University	AE	-15.9527	0.0000	236.4
238		Buffalo	MAC	-16.1030	0.0000	223.7
239		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-16.3085	0.0000	240.0
240		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-16.4004	0.0000	241.3
241		Quinnipiac	NEC	-16.4459	0.0000	250.9
242		Northern Colorado	BSky	-16.4623	0.0000	248.7
243		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-16.4921	0.0000	244.1
244		Towson	CAA	-16.5521	0.0000	236.8
245		Samford	OVC	-16.6467	0.0000	258.0
246		Liberty	BSth	-16.7316	0.0000	244.7
247		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-16.9140	0.0000	248.5
248		Wofford	SC	-17.1465	0.0000	243.3
249		Southern Utah	Sum	-17.1695	0.0000	251.3
250		Weber St.	BSky	-17.1953	0.0000	249.7
251		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-17.3280	0.0000	259.5
252		Mercer	ASun	-17.4741	0.0000	270.6
253		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-17.6086	0.0000	266.7
254		Central Michigan	MAC	-17.6217	0.0000	254.3
255		Northwestern	B10	-17.6217	0.0000	221.3
256		Maine	AE	-17.6520	0.0000	258.4
257		Lehigh	Pat	-17.8030	0.0000	258.9
258		Iona	MAAC	-17.8316	0.0000	261.1
259		Portland	WCC	-17.9198	0.0000	247.4
260		UC Davis	BW	-18.0415	0.0000	260.3
261		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-18.0427	0.0000	270.1
262		Dartmouth	Ivy	-18.2932	0.0000	272.2
263		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-18.3336	0.0000	251.2
264		Tennessee St.	OVC	-18.3640	0.0000	268.2
265		Lamar	Slnd	-18.5031	0.0000	270.8
266		Long Beach St.	BW	-18.5195	0.0000	261.9
267		South Dakota St.	Sum	-18.5332	0.0000	275.3
268		Delaware	CAA	-18.5602	0.0000	257.2
269		Chicago St.	ind	-18.5642	0.0000	268.8
270		St. Bonaventure	A10	-18.6076	0.0000	244.5
271		Texas St.	Slnd	-18.6121	0.0000	268.1
272		Navy	Pat	-18.7737	0.0000	269.0
273		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-18.8499	0.0000	268.0
274		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-18.9373	0.0000	280.6
275		Eastern Washington	BSky	-18.9762	0.0000	270.2
276		Texas Southern	SWAC	-18.9903	0.0000	278.0
277		Furman	SC	-19.0224	0.0000	269.1
278		Columbia	Ivy	-19.1680	0.0000	277.3
279		La Salle	A10	-19.2955	0.0000	245.9
280		Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-19.3818	0.0000	291.9
281		Stetson	ASun	-19.3907	0.0000	280.5
282		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-19.4113	0.0000	281.7
283		Sacred Heart	NEC	-19.5772	0.0000	277.3
284		East Carolina	CUSA	-19.6013	0.0000	268.2
285		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-19.6074	0.0000	292.1
286		Ball St.	MAC	-19.6128	0.0000	270.2
287		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-19.7739	0.0000	279.3
288		Western Carolina	SC	-19.8331	0.0000	275.0
289		Florida International	SB	-19.9727	0.0000	266.4
290		Evansville	MVC	-20.0036	0.0000	239.5
291		Jackson St.	SWAC	-20.0593	0.0000	293.7
292		Stony Brook	AE	-20.0845	0.0000	291.2
293		Southern	SWAC	-20.0905	0.0000	290.7
294		Georgia St.	CAA	-20.1730	0.0000	267.7
295		Rice	CUSA	-20.2283	0.0000	272.4
296		Denver	SB	-20.4743	0.0000	284.1
297		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-20.7297	0.0000	290.5
298		Campbell	ASun	-20.8048	0.0000	305.1
299		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-20.9024	0.0000	284.8
300		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-21.0087	0.0000	300.1
301		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-21.0173	0.0000	275.0
302		Idaho St.	BSky	-21.0192	0.0000	298.5
303		Florida Atlantic	SB	-21.0696	0.0000	285.5
304		Coppin St.	MEAC	-21.0833	0.0000	286.2
305		Binghamton	AE	-21.1273	0.0000	307.3
306		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-21.3056	0.0000	285.1
307		Army	Pat	-21.3062	0.0000	299.8
308		Winston Salem St.	MEAC	-21.4208	0.0000	307.4
309		Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.5563	0.0000	290.6
310		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-21.5962	0.0000	320.0
311		Charleston Southern	BSth	-21.7331	0.0000	309.2
312		Savannah St.	ind	-21.8231	0.0000	310.0
313		Texas Pan American	ind	-21.8441	0.0000	324.5
314		Morehead St.	OVC	-21.8892	0.0000	309.4
315		Grambling	SWAC	-21.9186	0.0000	316.5
316		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.9385	0.0000	308.0
317		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-21.9746	0.0000	318.7
318		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.0229	0.0000	319.6
319		UC Riverside	BW	-22.1269	0.0000	291.6
320		Howard	MEAC	-22.3897	0.0000	310.2
321		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-22.4183	0.0000	317.4
322		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-22.5627	0.0000	319.4
323		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.5746	0.0000	309.5
324		Longwood	ind	-22.6773	0.0000	325.9
325		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-22.9155	0.0000	324.2
326		North Carolina Central	ind	-22.9571	0.0000	317.6
327		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-23.0176	0.0000	333.1
328		Radford	BSth	-23.0207	0.0000	320.5
329		Canisius	MAAC	-23.0257	0.0000	321.9
330		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.2342	0.0000	316.0
331		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-23.3389	0.0000	334.3
332		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-23.4499	0.0000	332.4
333		Idaho	WAC	-23.4825	0.0000	319.9
334		NJ Inst of Technology	ind	-23.7590	0.0000	340.6
335		Western Illinois	Sum	-23.8436	0.0000	323.3
336		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-23.9177	0.0000	333.3
337		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-24.0282	0.0000	336.6
338		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-24.2078	0.0000	331.1
339		The Citadel	SC	-24.2307	0.0000	318.6
340		Presbyterian	ind	-24.3297	0.0000	330.8
341		North Florida	ASun	-25.2780	0.0000	339.3

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com