Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Mar 13, 2010.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Kentucky	SEC	10.1719	1.0000	2.6
2	X	Kansas	B12	10.0724	1.0000	1.0
3	X	Duke	ACC	9.9274	1.0000	5.0
4		Syracuse	BE	8.7495	1.0000	3.3
5	X	West Virginia	BE	8.5280	1.0000	3.2
6	X	Temple	A10	7.0983	1.0000	11.8
7	X	Northern Iowa	MVC	6.8690	1.0000	18.7
8		Baylor	B12	6.8231	1.0000	8.0
9		Kansas St.	B12	6.4328	1.0000	5.9
10		Villanova	BE	6.1608	1.0000	14.6
11		Purdue	B10	6.0848	1.0000	11.6
12		New Mexico	MWC	6.0683	1.0000	9.4
13		Georgetown	BE	5.8184	1.0000	7.0
14		Pittsburgh	BE	5.6604	1.0000	10.6
15		Tennessee	SEC	5.6468	1.0000	15.7
16		Vanderbilt	SEC	5.4725	1.0000	18.0
17	X	Butler	Horz	5.3463	1.0000	13.3
18		Texas A&M	B12	5.0586	1.0000	13.0
19		Xavier	A10	4.9954	1.0000	22.7
20	X	Ohio St.	B10	4.9820	1.0000	24.2
21		Maryland	ACC	4.7450	1.0000	17.4
22		Richmond	A10	4.6438	1.0000	23.9
23		Texas El Paso	CUSA	4.4489	1.0000	33.1
24		Brigham Young	MWC	4.3867	1.0000	23.9
25	X	Siena	MAAC	3.5372	0.9998	40.2
26		Wisconsin	B10	3.4261	0.9997	19.9
27		Utah St.	WAC	3.3624	0.9996	35.0
28		California	P10	3.2289	0.9994	21.0
29	X	St. Mary's	WCC	3.2009	0.9993	31.8
30		Texas	B12	3.1010	0.9990	29.1
31		Gonzaga	WCC	3.0750	0.9989	37.0
32		Michigan St.	B10	2.9751	0.9985	25.7
33		Missouri	B12	2.7622	0.9971	44.0
34	X	Old Dominion	CAA	2.7316	0.9968	36.0
35	X	San Diego St.	MWC	2.6795	0.9963	28.0
36		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.3393	0.9903	42.4
37		Notre Dame	BE	2.2941	0.9891	39.1
38		Louisville	BE	2.2922	0.9891	26.9
39		Marquette	BE	2.2762	0.9886	45.0
40	X	Washington	P10	2.1292	0.9834	38.0
41		Memphis	CUSA	1.9622	0.9751	48.2
42		Clemson	ACC	1.9488	0.9743	31.8
43		Florida St.	ACC	1.8183	0.9655	40.7
44		Wichita St.	MVC	1.6278	0.9482	53.9
45		Rhode Island	A10	1.5835	0.9433	46.0
46		Kent St.	MAC	1.4412	0.9252	52.9
47		Florida	SEC	1.3925	0.9181	49.3
48		Mississippi St.	SEC	1.3387	0.9097	55.8
49		Georgia Tech	ACC	1.0715	0.8580	32.7
50		Oklahoma St.	B12	0.6578	0.7447	30.2
51	X	Murray St.	OVC	0.5485	0.7083	70.8
52	X	Cornell	Ivy	0.4237	0.6641	58.8
53		Virginia Tech	ACC	0.3755	0.6464	63.0
54		Wake Forest	ACC	0.3433	0.6343	42.6
55		Minnesota	B10	0.0123	0.5049	52.7
56	X	New Mexico St.	WAC	-0.0487	0.4806	61.1
57	X	Oakland	Sum	-0.0619	0.4753	69.0
58		Arizona St.	P10	-0.1349	0.4463	56.9
59		Mississippi	SEC	-0.3695	0.3559	56.2
60		Dayton	A10	-0.5459	0.2926	51.6
61		UAB	CUSA	-0.7227	0.2349	47.0
62		Seton Hall	BE	-1.0682	0.1427	55.0
63		Northeastern	CAA	-1.3707	0.0852	74.8
64		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	-1.4243	0.0772	72.0
65	X	Wofford	SC	-1.5957	0.0553	81.2
66		Illinois St.	MVC	-1.6051	0.0542	76.0
67	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-1.7004	0.0445	85.1
68		William & Mary	CAA	-1.7306	0.0418	68.0
69		Connecticut	BE	-1.8078	0.0353	50.7
70		Illinois	B10	-2.0035	0.0226	64.8
71		Cincinnati	BE	-2.1301	0.0166	60.0
72		St. Louis	A10	-2.3494	0.0094	77.0
73		South Florida	BE	-2.4949	0.0063	65.5
74		St. John's	BE	-2.5609	0.0052	70.2
75		Marshall	CUSA	-2.8365	0.0023	67.0
76		Nevada	WAC	-2.8629	0.0021	73.0
77		Texas Tech	B12	-3.0621	0.0011	61.9
78		Akron	MAC	-3.2008	0.0007	82.8
79		Tulsa	CUSA	-3.2197	0.0006	64.7
80		Charlotte	A10	-3.2566	0.0006	78.0
81		Arizona	P10	-3.2665	0.0005	84.1
82		Morehead St.	OVC	-3.4323	0.0003	90.9
83		Portland	WCC	-3.7451	0.0001	79.9
84		Southern California	P10	-3.7932	0.0001	104.3
85		College of Charleston	SC	-3.8296	0.0001	107.1
86		Weber St.	BSky	-3.9222	0.0000	97.0
87		North Carolina	ACC	-4.0024	0.0000	74.2
88		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-4.1129	0.0000	89.4
89		IUPUI	Sum	-4.1142	0.0000	96.0
90	X	Ohio	MAC	-4.1801	0.0000	95.0
91		Missouri St.	MVC	-4.1950	0.0000	92.0
92	X	UC Santa Barbara	BW	-4.2831	0.0000	109.4
93	X	Montana	BSky	-4.3753	0.0000	108.2
94		Iona	MAAC	-4.4296	0.0000	87.8
95		Fairfield	MAAC	-4.4802	0.0000	94.0
96		Wright St.	Horz	-4.5969	0.0000	98.8
97		North Carolina St.	ACC	-4.6412	0.0000	85.8
98		Indiana St.	MVC	-4.6554	0.0000	93.0
99		South Carolina	SEC	-4.6631	0.0000	79.1
100		Miami FL	ACC	-4.7469	0.0000	89.7
101		Bradley	MVC	-4.7480	0.0000	98.2
102		Alabama	SEC	-4.7916	0.0000	82.0
103		Georgia	SEC	-4.8771	0.0000	87.2
104		Northwestern	B10	-4.8966	0.0000	104.1
105		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-4.9593	0.0000	114.2
106		Coastal Carolina	BSth	-4.9772	0.0000	132.1
107	X	North Texas	SB	-5.1026	0.0000	122.0
108	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-5.2695	0.0000	126.2
109		Appalachian St.	SC	-5.4492	0.0000	117.2
110	X	Houston	CUSA	-5.5077	0.0000	109.3
111		Harvard	Ivy	-5.6982	0.0000	115.2
112	X	Robert Morris	NEC	-5.8447	0.0000	141.8
113		Western Kentucky	SB	-5.9159	0.0000	129.0
114		Northern Colorado	BSky	-5.9934	0.0000	131.0
115		Buffalo	MAC	-6.0052	0.0000	123.0
116	X	Vermont	AE	-6.1154	0.0000	140.4
117		Creighton	MVC	-6.1600	0.0000	111.0
118		Pacific	BW	-6.2524	0.0000	130.0
119		UCLA	P10	-6.4934	0.0000	113.0
120		Virginia	ACC	-6.5650	0.0000	106.0
121		Michigan	B10	-6.6397	0.0000	118.4
122		Boston College	ACC	-6.6684	0.0000	103.6
123		Oklahoma	B12	-6.9083	0.0000	100.8
124		Troy	SB	-7.1485	0.0000	132.9
125		Western Carolina	SC	-7.2701	0.0000	138.0
126		Iowa St.	B12	-7.3401	0.0000	100.3
127		Duquesne	A10	-7.4791	0.0000	115.6
128	X	East Tennessee St.	ASun	-7.5111	0.0000	137.0
129		Arkansas	SEC	-7.5193	0.0000	119.7
130		Colorado	B12	-7.5469	0.0000	101.9
131		Princeton	Ivy	-7.5827	0.0000	147.6
132		Cleveland St.	Horz	-7.7653	0.0000	145.7
133		Oregon	P10	-7.8307	0.0000	112.0
134		Long Beach St.	BW	-7.8541	0.0000	134.4
135		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-8.1794	0.0000	145.2
136		Utah	MWC	-8.2252	0.0000	134.7
137		Niagara	MAAC	-8.3224	0.0000	142.9
138	X	Lehigh	Pat	-8.3234	0.0000	158.9
139		Western Michigan	MAC	-8.5002	0.0000	147.4
140		Oral Roberts	Sum	-8.5625	0.0000	143.9
141		Quinnipiac	NEC	-8.6414	0.0000	167.9
142		Belmont	ASun	-8.6489	0.0000	153.9
143		Boston University	AE	-8.6963	0.0000	149.0
144		Colorado St.	MWC	-8.7791	0.0000	121.0
145		Miami OH	MAC	-8.8222	0.0000	140.5
146		Nebraska	B12	-8.8311	0.0000	118.6
147		Stony Brook	AE	-8.8782	0.0000	166.4
148		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-9.0853	0.0000	157.0
149		Hofstra	CAA	-9.1939	0.0000	136.0
150		George Mason	CAA	-9.2463	0.0000	150.5
151		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9.3156	0.0000	128.0
152		Denver	SB	-9.3317	0.0000	165.1
153		Auburn	SEC	-9.4598	0.0000	126.8
154		Drexel	CAA	-9.6486	0.0000	156.0
155		Jacksonville	ASun	-9.7816	0.0000	169.0
156		Austin Peay	OVC	-9.7969	0.0000	162.0
157		Radford	BSth	-9.8364	0.0000	174.9
158		Maine	AE	-9.9533	0.0000	173.4
159		Detroit	Horz	-9.9937	0.0000	164.0
160		Rutgers	BE	-10.0052	0.0000	125.0
161		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-10.0333	0.0000	160.0
162		George Washington	A10	-10.1275	0.0000	150.7
163		Rider	MAAC	-10.2279	0.0000	152.7
164		St. Bonaventure	A10	-10.4061	0.0000	152.3
165		Campbell	ASun	-10.4483	0.0000	187.0
166		Middle Tennessee	SB	-10.5507	0.0000	180.2
167		Providence	BE	-10.6570	0.0000	124.0
168		Stanford	P10	-10.7076	0.0000	139.6
169		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-10.7422	0.0000	171.4
170		Washington St.	P10	-10.8227	0.0000	155.0
171	X	Winthrop	BSth	-10.9951	0.0000	185.3
172		Southern Illinois	MVC	-11.0572	0.0000	158.1
173		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-11.2274	0.0000	177.0
174		Davidson	SC	-11.2724	0.0000	170.0
175		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-11.4774	0.0000	188.0
176		Oregon St.	P10	-11.5123	0.0000	171.6
177		Drake	MVC	-11.8350	0.0000	161.0
178		St. Peter's	MAAC	-11.9175	0.0000	182.4
179		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-12.0404	0.0000	194.6
180		Jackson St.	SWAC	-12.0572	0.0000	214.0
181		Massachusetts	A10	-12.0872	0.0000	173.8
182		Fresno St.	WAC	-12.1049	0.0000	175.9
183		Saint Joseph's	A10	-12.3277	0.0000	165.3
184		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-12.4891	0.0000	205.0
185		Bowling Green	MAC	-12.5105	0.0000	193.1
186		Lipscomb	ASun	-12.6849	0.0000	212.4
187		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-12.7400	0.0000	204.0
188		La Salle	A10	-12.8051	0.0000	164.2
189		Valparaiso	Horz	-12.9359	0.0000	195.9
190		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-12.9916	0.0000	189.9
191		The Citadel	SC	-13.0096	0.0000	198.0
192		Lafayette	Pat	-13.0189	0.0000	216.8
193		Delaware St.	MEAC	-13.0860	0.0000	218.6
194	X	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-13.1203	0.0000	208.0
195		Ball St.	MAC	-13.1275	0.0000	203.0
196		Arkansas St.	SB	-13.2884	0.0000	202.0
197		Seattle	ind	-13.3787	0.0000	199.0
198		Central Michigan	MAC	-13.4181	0.0000	206.2
199		South Alabama	SB	-13.4746	0.0000	211.0
200		Montana St.	BSky	-13.5337	0.0000	209.0
201		San Jose St.	WAC	-13.5666	0.0000	179.0
202		NC Asheville	BSth	-13.6178	0.0000	216.2
203		South Dakota	GWC	-13.7498	0.0000	227.0
204		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-13.9082	0.0000	210.0
205		Idaho	WAC	-13.9740	0.0000	181.2
206		Texas Christian	MWC	-13.9966	0.0000	178.0
207		Indiana	B10	-14.0956	0.0000	194.4
208		San Francisco	WCC	-14.5118	0.0000	201.0
209		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-14.5425	0.0000	219.8
210		Florida Atlantic	SB	-14.5447	0.0000	224.0
211		Wyoming	MWC	-14.6022	0.0000	200.0
212		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-14.7160	0.0000	191.0
213		Northern Arizona	BSky	-14.8261	0.0000	218.6
214		Canisius	MAAC	-14.8952	0.0000	212.6
215		Mercer	ASun	-14.9299	0.0000	221.0
216		Penn St.	B10	-15.0615	0.0000	182.9
217		Binghamton	AE	-15.2121	0.0000	232.0
218		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-15.2584	0.0000	206.8
219		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-15.3127	0.0000	242.0
220		Boise St.	WAC	-15.3194	0.0000	197.0
221		Central Florida	CUSA	-15.4754	0.0000	183.4
222		Iowa	B10	-15.5245	0.0000	185.7
223		Louisiana St.	SEC	-15.5812	0.0000	189.1
224		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-15.6113	0.0000	233.0
225		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-15.6856	0.0000	248.0
226		Portland St.	BSky	-15.7019	0.0000	230.0
227		UC Davis	BW	-15.8104	0.0000	250.0
228		Texas Southern	SWAC	-15.9532	0.0000	243.3
229		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-15.9577	0.0000	231.0
230		New Hampshire	AE	-16.0533	0.0000	244.5
231		South Dakota St.	Sum	-16.2667	0.0000	235.0
232		Liberty	BSth	-16.3322	0.0000	241.0
233		Long Island	NEC	-16.3765	0.0000	249.0
234		Chattanooga	SC	-16.4361	0.0000	228.4
235		Texas St.	Slnd	-16.5128	0.0000	251.0
236		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-16.6425	0.0000	246.0
237		Loyola MD	MAAC	-16.6591	0.0000	223.0
238		DePaul	BE	-16.7391	0.0000	192.0
239		Bucknell	Pat	-16.8136	0.0000	258.0
240		Navy	Pat	-17.1292	0.0000	257.0
241		Columbia	Ivy	-17.1780	0.0000	253.0
242		Cal Poly	BW	-17.1801	0.0000	259.0
243		Hawaii	WAC	-17.2402	0.0000	215.0
244		Army	Pat	-17.3566	0.0000	252.0
245		Manhattan	MAAC	-17.3855	0.0000	225.0
246		UC Riverside	BW	-17.4586	0.0000	255.0
247		North Florida	ASun	-17.7419	0.0000	247.0
248		Air Force	MWC	-17.9053	0.0000	222.0
249		James Madison	CAA	-17.9429	0.0000	237.4
250		High Point	BSth	-17.9432	0.0000	270.0
251		UC Irvine	BW	-18.2100	0.0000	267.0
252		Sacred Heart	NEC	-18.2696	0.0000	266.0
253		Yale	Ivy	-18.2742	0.0000	268.0
254		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-18.4465	0.0000	269.0
255		San Diego	WCC	-18.4591	0.0000	226.0
256		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-18.5779	0.0000	264.4
257		Northern Illinois	MAC	-18.6022	0.0000	256.0
258		NC Greensboro	SC	-18.6775	0.0000	244.1
259		Evansville	MVC	-18.6807	0.0000	236.0
260		NC Wilmington	CAA	-18.7525	0.0000	240.0
261		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-18.8204	0.0000	274.0
262		Towson	CAA	-18.8561	0.0000	254.0
263		Alabama St.	SWAC	-18.9515	0.0000	298.0
264		St. Francis PA	NEC	-19.0949	0.0000	278.3
265		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-19.1401	0.0000	276.0
266		Georgia St.	CAA	-19.2018	0.0000	237.6
267		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-19.2553	0.0000	280.0
268		Santa Clara	WCC	-19.3573	0.0000	234.0
269		Delaware	CAA	-19.3763	0.0000	228.6
270		North Dakota St.	Sum	-19.4729	0.0000	272.0
271		Colgate	Pat	-19.4905	0.0000	285.0
272		Brown	Ivy	-19.5576	0.0000	262.3
273		East Carolina	CUSA	-19.5739	0.0000	239.0
274		Samford	SC	-19.6420	0.0000	264.4
275		Lamar	Slnd	-19.6662	0.0000	271.0
276		Youngstown St.	Horz	-19.6707	0.0000	262.7
277		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-19.6854	0.0000	293.0
278		Monmouth	NEC	-19.6929	0.0000	287.0
279		Furman	SC	-19.8666	0.0000	278.7
280		Eastern Washington	BSky	-19.8744	0.0000	273.0
281		Charleston Southern	BSth	-19.8924	0.0000	290.0
282		American	Pat	-19.8937	0.0000	294.0
283		Tennessee St.	OVC	-19.8979	0.0000	261.1
284		Hampton	MEAC	-20.0773	0.0000	291.0
285		Georgia Southern	SC	-20.1460	0.0000	275.0
286		Holy Cross	Pat	-20.1722	0.0000	281.0
287		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-20.4503	0.0000	303.9
288		Longwood	ind	-20.5175	0.0000	296.0
289		St. Francis NY	NEC	-20.5190	0.0000	300.0
290		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-20.5255	0.0000	286.0
291		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-20.7124	0.0000	277.0
292		Winston Salem St.	ind	-20.7170	0.0000	299.0
293		Hartford	AE	-20.8357	0.0000	303.1
294		Tulane	CUSA	-21.0207	0.0000	260.0
295		Central Connecticut	NEC	-21.1212	0.0000	310.0
296		Houston Baptist	GWC	-21.1407	0.0000	327.0
297		Elon	SC	-21.1499	0.0000	283.0
298		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-21.2335	0.0000	282.0
299		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-21.2891	0.0000	308.0
300		Western Illinois	Sum	-21.3078	0.0000	288.0
301		Savannah St.	ind	-21.4665	0.0000	318.0
302		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-21.6940	0.0000	284.0
303		Sacramento St.	BSky	-22.0026	0.0000	306.4
304		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-22.0187	0.0000	306.6
305		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-22.0568	0.0000	289.0
306		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.3547	0.0000	317.0
307		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-22.4073	0.0000	309.0
308		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-22.4952	0.0000	316.0
309		Idaho St.	BSky	-22.5989	0.0000	301.0
310		Florida International	SB	-22.7726	0.0000	302.0
311		Albany	AE	-22.7991	0.0000	304.9
312		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.8077	0.0000	311.0
313		McNeese St.	Slnd	-22.9842	0.0000	319.0
314		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-23.1267	0.0000	320.0
315		Pepperdine	WCC	-23.1330	0.0000	292.0
316		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-23.2718	0.0000	333.0
317		North Dakota	GWC	-23.3459	0.0000	340.0
318		Gardner Webb	BSth	-23.4628	0.0000	323.0
319		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-23.4908	0.0000	329.0
320		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.5479	0.0000	321.8
321		New Orleans	SB	-23.5584	0.0000	321.2
322		Howard	MEAC	-23.6638	0.0000	331.0
323		NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	-23.7029	0.0000	342.0
324		Dartmouth	Ivy	-23.7066	0.0000	325.0
325		SIU Edwardsville	OVC	-23.7279	0.0000	328.0
326		Bryant	ind	-23.7519	0.0000	347.0
327		Utah Valley	GWC	-23.8133	0.0000	339.0
328		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-23.8138	0.0000	324.0
329		Fordham	A10	-23.8756	0.0000	297.0
330		Rice	CUSA	-23.9454	0.0000	295.0
331		Wagner	NEC	-24.0668	0.0000	334.0
332		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-24.0735	0.0000	312.0
333		MD Baltimore County	AE	-24.1551	0.0000	336.0
334		Chicago St.	GWC	-24.3473	0.0000	346.0
335		North Carolina Central	ind	-24.3976	0.0000	345.0
336		Stetson	ASun	-24.5071	0.0000	326.0
337		Coppin St.	MEAC	-24.5219	0.0000	338.0
338		Southern Utah	Sum	-24.5368	0.0000	314.2
339		Texas Pan American	GWC	-24.5802	0.0000	335.0
340		Centenary	Sum	-24.6841	0.0000	313.0
341		Grambling	SWAC	-24.8788	0.0000	341.0
342		Toledo	MAC	-25.1945	0.0000	314.8
343		Southern	SWAC	-25.3166	0.0000	343.0
344		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-26.0192	0.0000	344.0
345		Marist	MAAC	-26.2381	0.0000	332.0
346		Presbyterian	BSth	-26.4610	0.0000	330.0
347		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-26.6610	0.0000	337.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com