Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Bracket Busters - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Wednesdays and Sundays

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid.
Please go to the Dance Card site to learn more about how it works.

Tournament Projections Archive

Through games of Feb 6, 2010.

This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up. Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
Rank	Auto Bid	Team	Conf	Dance Card	Prob(At-Large Bid)	Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1	X	Syracuse	BE	9.7490	1.0000	2.1
2	X	Kansas	B12	9.2920	1.0000	1.9
3	X	Duke	ACC	9.2566	1.0000	4.5
4		West Virginia	BE	8.4980	1.0000	3.6
5		Villanova	BE	8.0046	1.0000	6.9
6	X	Kentucky	SEC	7.6054	1.0000	5.7
7		Kansas St.	B12	5.8617	1.0000	5.2
8		Texas	B12	5.7249	1.0000	13.7
9	X	Northern Iowa	MVC	5.6456	1.0000	18.7
10	X	Wisconsin	B10	5.5601	1.0000	12.9
11		Georgetown	BE	5.4383	1.0000	7.4
12		New Mexico	MWC	5.1998	1.0000	14.4
13		Tennessee	SEC	5.1988	1.0000	12.6
14	X	Brigham Young	MWC	5.0938	1.0000	18.8
15		Baylor	B12	4.8051	1.0000	19.7
16		Vanderbilt	SEC	4.6888	1.0000	18.6
17	X	Butler	Horz	4.5852	1.0000	17.7
18		Purdue	B10	4.5010	1.0000	13.6
19		Pittsburgh	BE	4.3185	1.0000	18.3
20		Gonzaga	WCC	4.2166	1.0000	33.0
21		Michigan St.	B10	4.1194	1.0000	25.0
22		Wake Forest	ACC	4.0273	1.0000	24.7
23		Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	3.9439	1.0000	27.8
24		Texas A&M	B12	3.8315	0.9999	20.4
25		Temple	A10	3.5144	0.9998	25.1
26		Rhode Island	A10	3.3601	0.9996	23.0
27		Missouri	B12	3.0083	0.9987	34.5
28	X	Xavier	A10	2.8739	0.9980	31.2
29	X	California	P10	2.6813	0.9963	22.4
30		Maryland	ACC	2.6137	0.9955	31.4
31		Louisville	BE	2.6074	0.9954	26.3
32		Ohio St.	B10	2.5409	0.9945	41.2
33		Georgia Tech	ACC	2.4656	0.9932	24.4
34	X	St. Mary's	WCC	2.3988	0.9918	36.1
35	X	Utah St.	WAC	2.3205	0.9898	37.8
36		Dayton	A10	2.2548	0.9879	30.8
37	X	Siena	MAAC	2.1238	0.9832	45.2
38		Florida	SEC	2.1091	0.9825	43.1
39		Mississippi	SEC	1.8907	0.9707	37.9
40		Clemson	ACC	1.6685	0.9524	33.9
41		Marquette	BE	1.6478	0.9503	49.7
42		Northeastern	CAA	1.5544	0.9400	53.1
43		UAB	CUSA	1.5375	0.9379	36.8
44	X	Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.3001	0.9032	49.5
45		Florida St.	ACC	1.2854	0.9007	39.7
46		Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	1.2055	0.8860	48.2
47		Wichita St.	MVC	1.1575	0.8765	54.4
48		Richmond	A10	0.7733	0.7803	45.3
49	X	Old Dominion	CAA	0.7725	0.7801	44.2
50		Washington	P10	0.5252	0.7003	47.1
51		Connecticut	BE	0.3034	0.6192	41.1
52	X	Cornell	Ivy	0.2276	0.5900	61.7
53		Memphis	CUSA	0.0984	0.5392	55.2
54		Charlotte	A10	0.0192	0.5076	53.7
55		Texas Tech	B12	-0.5753	0.2825	47.9
56		Oklahoma St.	B12	-0.5759	0.2823	43.4
57		South Florida	BE	-0.6474	0.2587	56.5
58		Virginia Tech	ACC	-0.7507	0.2264	68.6
59	X	Murray St.	OVC	-0.8701	0.1921	80.9
60		Mississippi St.	SEC	-0.8847	0.1882	65.3
61		San Diego St.	MWC	-0.8961	0.1851	56.1
62	X	Kent St.	MAC	-0.9409	0.1734	62.2
63		Minnesota	B10	-1.0545	0.1458	57.2
64		Southern California	P10	-1.2418	0.1071	76.9
65		Arizona St.	P10	-1.3222	0.0931	63.8
66		Cincinnati	BE	-1.4245	0.0771	52.0
67		Tulsa	CUSA	-1.7083	0.0438	64.1
68		Louisiana Tech	WAC	-1.8226	0.0342	74.2
69		Notre Dame	BE	-1.8616	0.0313	65.7
70		William & Mary	CAA	-1.9317	0.0267	70.0
71		Seton Hall	BE	-2.1102	0.0174	64.3
72		Illinois	B10	-2.1969	0.0140	69.0
73		North Carolina	ACC	-2.2472	0.0123	65.6
74		Oakland	Sum	-2.4869	0.0064	91.4
75		Arizona	P10	-2.5078	0.0061	73.8
76		South Carolina	SEC	-2.5346	0.0056	66.4
77	X	Sam Houston St.	Slnd	-2.6229	0.0044	93.9
78		Nevada	WAC	-2.6576	0.0039	69.7
79		Virginia	ACC	-2.7854	0.0027	78.4
80		Oklahoma	B12	-2.8009	0.0025	72.1
81		Iona	MAAC	-3.1297	0.0009	78.8
82		Northwestern	B10	-3.2992	0.0005	81.6
83		New Mexico St.	WAC	-3.5274	0.0002	87.3
84		Missouri St.	MVC	-3.6840	0.0001	86.0
85		College of Charleston	SC	-3.7386	0.0001	107.4
86		Weber St.	BSky	-3.7514	0.0001	94.7
87		Morehead St.	OVC	-4.0010	0.0000	98.5
88		Harvard	Ivy	-4.1253	0.0000	103.5
89		Portland	WCC	-4.1357	0.0000	85.8
90		Wright St.	Horz	-4.3700	0.0000	97.4
91		Marshall	CUSA	-4.5331	0.0000	82.1
92		Arkansas	SEC	-4.5487	0.0000	95.7
93		St. John's	BE	-4.7041	0.0000	84.8
94		Northern Colorado	BSky	-4.7461	0.0000	114.2
95		Miami FL	ACC	-4.8825	0.0000	86.7
96		Western Carolina	SC	-4.9452	0.0000	116.8
97		Boston College	ACC	-4.9653	0.0000	90.3
98		Illinois St.	MVC	-5.0462	0.0000	104.6
99		Alabama	SEC	-5.0780	0.0000	87.9
100		Akron	MAC	-5.1530	0.0000	105.1
101	X	IUPUI	Sum	-5.2412	0.0000	118.3
102	X	Coastal Carolina	BSth	-5.2879	0.0000	134.9
103	X	Montana	BSky	-5.2890	0.0000	116.4
104	X	Wofford	SC	-5.3095	0.0000	120.4
105		Indiana St.	MVC	-5.4134	0.0000	95.7
106	X	Pacific	BW	-5.4879	0.0000	123.6
107		Georgia	SEC	-5.6554	0.0000	85.8
108		Drexel	CAA	-5.6619	0.0000	117.8
109		Iowa St.	B12	-5.7057	0.0000	90.5
110	X	Morgan St.	MEAC	-5.7295	0.0000	130.8
111		Bradley	MVC	-5.8533	0.0000	105.8
112		Providence	BE	-6.0298	0.0000	88.3
113		Washington St.	P10	-6.0613	0.0000	106.8
114		Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	-6.1573	0.0000	124.4
115		Western Michigan	MAC	-6.1618	0.0000	123.5
116		Princeton	Ivy	-6.1941	0.0000	132.2
117		St. Louis	A10	-6.2557	0.0000	104.6
118		Creighton	MVC	-6.3205	0.0000	112.1
119		Nebraska	B12	-6.3250	0.0000	103.6
120		Colorado St.	MWC	-6.5816	0.0000	110.8
121		Fairfield	MAAC	-6.7070	0.0000	118.8
122		George Mason	CAA	-6.8547	0.0000	126.9
123		North Carolina St.	ACC	-6.9507	0.0000	96.3
124		Cleveland St.	Horz	-7.3256	0.0000	129.6
125		UCLA	P10	-7.4086	0.0000	121.0
126		Oral Roberts	Sum	-7.5586	0.0000	138.7
127		Eastern Kentucky	OVC	-7.6422	0.0000	138.8
128		Austin Peay	OVC	-7.6940	0.0000	137.3
129		Colorado	B12	-7.7724	0.0000	107.0
130		Southern Illinois	MVC	-7.8686	0.0000	126.7
131	X	Belmont	ASun	-7.8892	0.0000	149.7
132		Appalachian St.	SC	-7.9868	0.0000	147.6
133		Miami OH	MAC	-8.0632	0.0000	138.1
134		Michigan	B10	-8.1636	0.0000	122.4
135		Buffalo	MAC	-8.1638	0.0000	141.9
136	X	Western Kentucky	SB	-8.1772	0.0000	152.6
137		Oregon	P10	-8.2049	0.0000	122.9
138		UC Santa Barbara	BW	-8.2589	0.0000	154.1
139		Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-8.2816	0.0000	122.2
140		Houston	CUSA	-8.2982	0.0000	132.9
141		East Tennessee St.	ASun	-8.3958	0.0000	151.6
142		Denver	SB	-8.4809	0.0000	151.3
143		Duquesne	A10	-8.5097	0.0000	117.4
144		Robert Morris	NEC	-8.6235	0.0000	168.4
145		Utah	MWC	-8.6483	0.0000	141.8
146		Boston University	AE	-8.6810	0.0000	153.4
147		St. Peter's	MAAC	-8.7137	0.0000	152.2
148	X	Quinnipiac	NEC	-8.7579	0.0000	170.4
149		Ohio	MAC	-8.7713	0.0000	136.2
150		Davidson	SC	-8.9013	0.0000	150.0
151		Jacksonville	ASun	-8.9995	0.0000	157.6
152		Stony Brook	AE	-9.0505	0.0000	169.2
153	X	Vermont	AE	-9.2979	0.0000	166.6
154		Long Beach St.	BW	-9.3269	0.0000	161.3
155		Detroit	Horz	-9.4670	0.0000	161.8
156		Fresno St.	WAC	-9.7281	0.0000	149.4
157		Rutgers	BE	-9.7599	0.0000	123.7
158		Maine	AE	-9.7705	0.0000	174.7
159		George Washington	A10	-9.8456	0.0000	135.8
160		North Texas	SB	-9.8854	0.0000	173.0
161		La Salle	A10	-10.2181	0.0000	133.1
162	X	Lehigh	Pat	-10.2551	0.0000	176.9
163		San Jose St.	WAC	-10.3584	0.0000	150.3
164		Arkansas St.	SB	-10.3722	0.0000	170.0
165		Auburn	SEC	-10.4902	0.0000	136.2
166		Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	-10.5116	0.0000	168.6
167		Niagara	MAAC	-10.6050	0.0000	165.9
168		Stanford	P10	-10.6721	0.0000	147.3
169		Drake	MVC	-10.6733	0.0000	164.1
170		Radford	BSth	-10.8013	0.0000	186.4
171		Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	-10.9470	0.0000	173.1
172		Middle Tennessee	SB	-11.0710	0.0000	188.3
173		Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	-11.0748	0.0000	180.7
174		Idaho	WAC	-11.1575	0.0000	156.3
175		Rider	MAAC	-11.2140	0.0000	167.5
176		Central Michigan	MAC	-11.3951	0.0000	194.1
177		Campbell	ASun	-11.4588	0.0000	197.7
178		Valparaiso	Horz	-11.7877	0.0000	187.0
179		Loyola Chicago	Horz	-11.8449	0.0000	186.3
180		St. Bonaventure	A10	-11.9334	0.0000	167.8
181		Troy	SB	-11.9347	0.0000	189.1
182		Wyoming	MWC	-12.1476	0.0000	176.0
183		Texas Christian	MWC	-12.1673	0.0000	160.0
184		DePaul	BE	-12.3229	0.0000	155.6
185		Texas San Antonio	Slnd	-12.3563	0.0000	195.1
186		Southern Methodist	CUSA	-12.4307	0.0000	171.3
187		Louisiana Lafayette	SB	-12.4559	0.0000	212.4
188		Ball St.	MAC	-12.4853	0.0000	199.0
189		Saint Joseph's	A10	-12.5449	0.0000	170.4
190		Winthrop	BSth	-12.6276	0.0000	202.8
191		Lafayette	Pat	-12.8950	0.0000	213.9
192		South Dakota St.	Sum	-12.9134	0.0000	204.7
193		Hofstra	CAA	-12.9634	0.0000	168.7
194		Bowling Green	MAC	-13.0973	0.0000	201.9
195		Montana St.	BSky	-13.1018	0.0000	204.3
196		Mount St. Mary's	NEC	-13.1113	0.0000	202.4
197		Indiana	B10	-13.1205	0.0000	175.0
198		Lipscomb	ASun	-13.2334	0.0000	213.0
199		Canisius	MAAC	-13.3215	0.0000	204.8
200		Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	-13.4850	0.0000	217.1
201		The Citadel	SC	-13.5681	0.0000	210.3
202		Florida Atlantic	SB	-13.6374	0.0000	212.9
203		Oregon St.	P10	-13.6957	0.0000	190.9
204		Portland St.	BSky	-13.8529	0.0000	209.4
205		Loyola MD	MAAC	-14.0000	0.0000	199.5
206		Army	Pat	-14.0121	0.0000	221.2
207		Cal St. Fullerton	BW	-14.2563	0.0000	217.9
208		Central Florida	CUSA	-14.4401	0.0000	181.8
209		South Alabama	SB	-14.4749	0.0000	224.1
210		Massachusetts	A10	-14.5602	0.0000	187.7
211		Northern Arizona	BSky	-14.5831	0.0000	217.0
212		Texas Southern	SWAC	-14.5862	0.0000	229.2
213		Eastern Illinois	OVC	-14.6202	0.0000	220.2
214		Loyola Marymount	WCC	-14.6418	0.0000	208.2
215		Iowa	B10	-14.7023	0.0000	169.5
216		Eastern Michigan	MAC	-14.7261	0.0000	223.6
217		Chattanooga	SC	-14.7934	0.0000	212.8
218		South Carolina St.	MEAC	-14.7955	0.0000	235.2
219		Cal St. Northridge	BW	-14.9218	0.0000	228.0
220		Tennessee Tech	OVC	-14.9584	0.0000	212.9
221		Delaware St.	MEAC	-15.2132	0.0000	237.0
222		Penn St.	B10	-15.3389	0.0000	186.9
223	X	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	-15.4426	0.0000	237.5
224		Hawaii	WAC	-15.6192	0.0000	194.5
225		South Dakota	GWC	-15.6376	0.0000	245.6
226		Boise St.	WAC	-15.7334	0.0000	205.5
227		Lamar	Slnd	-15.7725	0.0000	234.0
228		Binghamton	AE	-15.7824	0.0000	239.4
229		Louisiana St.	SEC	-15.8037	0.0000	181.2
230		NC Asheville	BSth	-15.8840	0.0000	244.2
231		North Florida	ASun	-15.8945	0.0000	231.0
232		San Francisco	WCC	-15.9138	0.0000	216.4
233		Air Force	MWC	-16.0653	0.0000	208.2
234		Bethune Cookman	MEAC	-16.1832	0.0000	241.1
235		Jackson St.	SWAC	-16.1931	0.0000	255.7
236		Seattle	ind	-16.2157	0.0000	238.8
237		Mercer	ASun	-16.4167	0.0000	237.5
238		Sacred Heart	NEC	-16.5988	0.0000	248.8
239		Manhattan	MAAC	-16.8023	0.0000	227.4
240		San Diego	WCC	-16.8298	0.0000	217.9
241		NC Wilmington	CAA	-16.8489	0.0000	213.0
242		IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	-16.8688	0.0000	246.8
243		Santa Clara	WCC	-16.9645	0.0000	214.9
244		Columbia	Ivy	-17.1972	0.0000	249.8
245		Navy	Pat	-17.2204	0.0000	263.5
246		Texas St.	Slnd	-17.3521	0.0000	259.9
247		Texas Arlington	Slnd	-17.3897	0.0000	257.1
248		Georgia St.	CAA	-17.5385	0.0000	223.0
249		Long Island	NEC	-17.5412	0.0000	261.8
250		Liberty	BSth	-17.5474	0.0000	255.4
251		Prairie View A&M	SWAC	-17.5594	0.0000	270.4
252		Northern Illinois	MAC	-17.6021	0.0000	247.7
253		Jacksonville St.	OVC	-17.6533	0.0000	248.0
254		Delaware	CAA	-18.0706	0.0000	218.7
255		Yale	Ivy	-18.1212	0.0000	259.9
256		Holy Cross	Pat	-18.1900	0.0000	267.1
257		Monmouth	NEC	-18.3154	0.0000	273.3
258		Furman	SC	-18.3382	0.0000	266.3
259		UC Irvine	BW	-18.3397	0.0000	274.0
260		High Point	BSth	-18.4070	0.0000	279.3
261		Louisiana Monroe	SB	-18.4165	0.0000	267.3
262		Arkansas Little Rock	SB	-18.4300	0.0000	249.0
263		James Madison	CAA	-18.4418	0.0000	236.8
264		New Hampshire	AE	-18.4915	0.0000	271.2
265		Youngstown St.	Horz	-18.5178	0.0000	250.7
266		UC Riverside	BW	-18.5275	0.0000	266.5
267		Cal Poly	BW	-18.5868	0.0000	278.1
268		St. Francis NY	NEC	-18.6510	0.0000	282.9
269		Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	-18.7873	0.0000	270.5
270		Kennesaw St.	ASun	-18.8197	0.0000	275.8
271		Charleston Southern	BSth	-18.8427	0.0000	276.8
272		NC Greensboro	SC	-18.9489	0.0000	256.4
273		North Dakota St.	Sum	-19.0111	0.0000	274.2
274		Samford	SC	-19.0623	0.0000	259.0
275		Tulane	CUSA	-19.2194	0.0000	245.0
276		Hartford	AE	-19.3195	0.0000	288.5
277		UC Davis	BW	-19.3405	0.0000	291.3
278		Bucknell	Pat	-19.6393	0.0000	283.0
279		North Carolina A&T	MEAC	-19.7154	0.0000	281.4
280		East Carolina	CUSA	-19.7461	0.0000	243.4
281		Colgate	Pat	-20.1995	0.0000	294.3
282		Illinois Chicago	Horz	-20.2740	0.0000	278.9
283		Idaho St.	BSky	-20.3989	0.0000	275.7
284		Nicholls St.	Slnd	-20.4726	0.0000	291.7
285		Rice	CUSA	-20.4748	0.0000	268.6
286		Hampton	MEAC	-20.4949	0.0000	291.7
287		Pepperdine	WCC	-20.5918	0.0000	269.2
288		Missouri Kansas City	Sum	-20.6981	0.0000	287.3
289		Georgia Southern	SC	-20.7096	0.0000	286.5
290		American	Pat	-20.7269	0.0000	306.8
291		Brown	Ivy	-20.8122	0.0000	273.4
292		Evansville	MVC	-20.8455	0.0000	260.2
293		McNeese St.	Slnd	-20.9149	0.0000	295.4
294		Central Connecticut	NEC	-21.0237	0.0000	310.2
295		Elon	SC	-21.0512	0.0000	294.5
296		Alabama St.	SWAC	-21.2141	0.0000	317.5
297		St. Francis PA	NEC	-21.3827	0.0000	303.4
298		Pennsylvania	Ivy	-21.4680	0.0000	303.3
299		Eastern Washington	BSky	-21.4911	0.0000	290.4
300		Florida International	SB	-21.5186	0.0000	292.6
301		Sacramento St.	BSky	-21.5542	0.0000	300.3
302		Longwood	ind	-21.7135	0.0000	300.2
303		Winston Salem St.	ind	-21.7187	0.0000	313.8
304		Albany	AE	-21.7292	0.0000	296.2
305		Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	-21.7535	0.0000	295.6
306		Savannah St.	ind	-21.7763	0.0000	323.6
307		Tennessee St.	OVC	-21.8047	0.0000	284.5
308		Howard	MEAC	-21.8606	0.0000	319.7
309		Gardner Webb	BSth	-21.9707	0.0000	309.6
310		Towson	CAA	-22.0229	0.0000	286.7
311		Norfolk St.	MEAC	-22.0713	0.0000	310.2
312		Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	-22.2822	0.0000	312.1
313		South Carolina Upstate	ASun	-22.3452	0.0000	305.7
314		Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	-22.4382	0.0000	315.1
315		Western Illinois	Sum	-22.4954	0.0000	310.3
316		Centenary	Sum	-22.6402	0.0000	295.5
317		Utah Valley	GWC	-22.7613	0.0000	331.3
318		Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	-22.7639	0.0000	322.6
319		Alabama A&M	SWAC	-22.9395	0.0000	331.0
320		North Dakota	GWC	-22.9956	0.0000	337.2
321		Northwestern St.	Slnd	-23.0515	0.0000	320.9
322		Fordham	A10	-23.0585	0.0000	286.4
323		Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	-23.1433	0.0000	326.3
324		Southern Utah	Sum	-23.1800	0.0000	308.2
325		Wagner	NEC	-23.1946	0.0000	325.0
326		Houston Baptist	GWC	-23.2368	0.0000	342.2
327		New Orleans	SB	-23.2476	0.0000	320.9
328		Virginia Military Inst	BSth	-23.2749	0.0000	318.0
329		Dartmouth	Ivy	-23.2799	0.0000	315.8
330		Central Arkansas	Slnd	-23.3647	0.0000	322.5
331		NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	-23.4306	0.0000	336.1
332		SIU Edwardsville	OVC	-23.6470	0.0000	330.7
333		Florida A&M	MEAC	-23.7477	0.0000	329.2
334		Texas Pan American	GWC	-24.0754	0.0000	329.8
335		Bryant	ind	-24.1709	0.0000	344.6
336		Grambling	SWAC	-24.1849	0.0000	340.3
337		Coppin St.	MEAC	-24.4899	0.0000	334.1
338		North Carolina Central	ind	-24.5199	0.0000	345.6
339		Chicago St.	GWC	-24.5726	0.0000	343.8
340		Toledo	MAC	-24.6423	0.0000	317.1
341		MD Baltimore County	AE	-24.6727	0.0000	341.8
342		Southern	SWAC	-24.7803	0.0000	341.5
343		Stetson	ASun	-24.8199	0.0000	329.5
344		Marist	MAAC	-25.1815	0.0000	328.8
345		Presbyterian	BSth	-25.5868	0.0000	326.1
346		Tennessee Martin	OVC	-26.0228	0.0000	334.0
347		Alcorn St.	SWAC	-26.7192	0.0000	345.3

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and to Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com